Extratropical Storm Igor Near Greenland

[Ptarmigan]

I notice Igor's hurricane force winds extent has not changed that much, while tropical storm force winds have expanded a great deal.

Code: Select all

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
MILES...390 KM.

[texoz]

If Igor doesn't experience any strong negative factors over the next 24 to 48hrs, he might make a run at the largest hurricane on record (by gale diameter).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_At ... n_diameter

UPDATED: Igor has gone from #10 to #3 largest Atlantic storm today.

[texoz]

It just dawned on me that if Igor passes just west of Bermuda that island could be devastated. In that scenario, they will experience gale force winds for about 24 hours and hurricane force winds for an ADDITIONAL 12 to 16 hours.

I'm basing this on current forward motion of 13 mph and a gale force wind field of nearly 345 miles from the center and hurricane force winds about 100 miles from the center.

The cumulative effect of 40 hours of gale force winds (and stronger) is going to test the integrity of the islands structures.

For Bermuda's sake, everyone should hope that Igor does not intensify much beyond the current level.

[Andrew]

It just dawned on me that if Igor passes just west of Bermuda that island could be devastated. In that scenario, they will experience gale force winds for about 24 hours and hurricane force winds for an ADDITIONAL 12 to 16 hours.

I'm basing this on current forward motion of 13 mph and a gale force wind field of nearly 345 miles from the center and hurricane force winds about 100 miles from the center.

The cumulative effect of 40 hours of gale force winds (and stronger) is going to test the integrity of the islands structures.

For Bermuda's sake, everyone should hope that Igor does not intensify much beyond the current level.

Unfortunately it looks like it is intensifying:



000
WTNT31 KNHC 180234
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE IGOR GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LARGE
HURRICANE IGOR WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY SUNDAY.

IGOR IS A PARTICULARLY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WERE REPORTED AT NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM...
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF IGOR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

Sorry for the lack of attention to Igor...

[Ptarmigan]

If Igor hits Bermuda, it will produce high waves and higher storm surge than what they are used too. Igor could easily engulf Texas.

[unome]

Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:50 am AST Saturday September 18, 2010. A 22-mile wide inner eyewall was collapsing, and being replaced by a huge 92-mile diameter outer eyewall.
Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

[Ptarmigan]

Igor had a central pressure of 939 mb and 110 mph winds. That is like Ike because of their massive size.

[unome]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 191149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...CENTER OF IGOR MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AND SQUALLS BEING REPORTED ON THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 65.3W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. BERMUDA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...81 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[unome]

[srainhoutx]

Sustained TS winds now in Berumda...

Radar link...

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

[unome]

500 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 82 KT AND 68 KT...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 70 KT. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AND SOME OF THE WINDRADII HAVE BEEN EXPENDED OUTWARD BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED WHILE IGOR REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY...AND BE COMPLETED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER IGOR BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES WERE A FEW TENTHS OF A DEGREE WEST OF THE EARLIER SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THIS HAS REQUIRED A LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE UPDATED POSITION HAS ALSO REQUIRED A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY... HOWEVER...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT IN THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK AND THERE REMAINS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IGOR IS LIKELY TO PASS WEST OF BERMUDA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE
CENTER AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT ON THE ISLAND. 120HR VT 24/1800Z 60.0N 37.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/bermuda.shtml

By John Moore <jmoorebda at yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:39:37 -0700 (PDT)
As daylight fades at The Peak, all is secure. It's gotten progressively wild out there, wind howling (rather rumbling) constantly. but not Fabian. Lots of branches and small limbs down, no trees so far. Fingers crossed. Just 2.5 hours to the peak, and Igor seems to be slightly weakening and moved a little West. CPA forty odd mls west at 10. Hope the rest of the island is faring as well as the Peak.now a refreshment - cold coffee or warm beer ?

Stay safe, Bermuda

By "Cordell W. Riley " <criley at cwbda.bm>
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 19:27:01 -0300
The island's medical facilities have reported that 21 people have been treated for storm-related injuries. They did not indicate if any were life-threatening. As darkness now falls in Bermuda, the storm has weakened and is now expected to pass some 47 miles to our west around 10pm, so we are not out of this as yet but so far the impact has been less than expected.

By "Cordell W. Riley " <criley at cwbda.bm>
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 19:05:49 -0300
The island's only electricity supply company has reported that nearly 50% of the homes on the island are now without electricity.


By mdyer at myhome.bm
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 20:35:15 +0000
The winds are strong and constant and heavy rain is sporadic where I am. The oleanders are bending so far over they look like they will touch the ground. There is an almost constant roar. I do not know if we are getting the hurricane force winds yet as I have had no power since 6 this morning. Funny there are still a few tree frogs singing..my guess is the worst is yet to come. Will try to send later. Marion

[Ptarmigan]

Look at the IKE and HDP of Igor.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour02.png

Incredible for a Category 1 Hurricane. It is really large! The storm/surge potential is higher than Ike! YIKES!

[tireman4]

St John's Newfoundland. Goodness.

Current Conditions
49 °F
Observed at: St. John's Int'l Airport
Date: 3:57 PM NDT Tuesday 21 September 2010
Condition:Light Rain
Pressure:28.35 inches
Visibility:4 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature:48.7°F
Dewpoint:49.5°F
Humidity:100 %
Wind:NNW 52 gust 85 mph

[Ptarmigan]

Talk about a monster hurricane! The extent of tropical storm force winds is about twice that of Ike!