December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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user:null wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:02 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:48 pmI was 20 months old in 1983 event. I remember 1989 vividly and it is what sold me on Extreme Winter Weather. I was doing yard work with my Dad in Longview and it was 75 and starting to thunderstorm and a few hours later it was 25 with heavy sleet and snow.
I believe part of the debacle in Feb 2021 was that lots of new growth happened in the TX Triangle cities since those 80s affairs. So lots of infrastructure, foundations, people, etc that literally might never have seen such cold until last year's outbreak.

Cold w/ snow/sleet is wintry fun, but not too good for the TX grid, infrastructure, etc. The same levels of cold, but dry might be easier to handle, though more "boring". This is, unless, lessons have been learned since 2021, of course.
2021 problem was that not enough NG power plants were online. They were down for repairs and prepping for the next summer. SETX houses are build on slabs. Very few are built with foundations - like in North Carolina or further north. When it's super cold, pipes in the crawlspace underneath can freeze if they are not insulated enough. If they are, it's not a problem. Some older houses in SETX are on foundations instead of slabs, but I wouldn't buy one. We have no bedrock underneath - just that d*amn white and red clay.

Pipes embedded into a slab won't burst because of cold. Be more worried if the slab dries out in a Texas summer.
sswinney
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NWHouston wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:49 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:57 am
brazoriatx wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:51 am Ppl on 2k are already saying 57 was right lol get one bad run and the house falls down
Classic, illogical thinking and reaction that is so dominant in society now. :)
Wxman has always been the voice of reason in these scenarios. Its why I dont rush out for insulation until WXman 57 says its going to get cold. I was surprised by how many were actually calling him a troll....... Anyone who is honest would have to admit the odds are always in favor of the voice of reason when it comes to really cold air and winter weather here in SETX despite what all the models say leading up.

I have no idea how this will eventually play out, just know I follow the voice of reason up to when he heads for Australia
Maybe a voice of reason but he’s been wrong before just as anyone else has. Weather is a finicky thing and things can and will change.

I remember Blake losing the 2004 Xmas snow bet and having to dance around in a banana costume. There are plenty of people who can and will be wrong and that’s ok.
Been here for years since Katrina.
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DoctorMu
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user:null wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:02 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:48 pmI was 20 months old in 1983 event. I remember 1989 vividly and it is what sold me on Extreme Winter Weather. I was doing yard work with my Dad in Longview and it was 75 and starting to thunderstorm and a few hours later it was 25 with heavy sleet and snow.
I believe part of the debacle in Feb 2021 was that lots of new growth happened in the TX Triangle cities since those 80s affairs. So lots of infrastructure, foundations, people, etc that literally might never have seen such cold until last year's outbreak.

Cold w/ snow/sleet is wintry fun, but not too good for the TX grid, infrastructure, etc. The same levels of cold, but dry might be easier to handle, though more "boring". This is, unless, lessons have been learned since 2021, of course.
2021 problem was that not enough NG power plants were online. They were down for repairs and prepping for the next summer. SETX houses are build on slabs. Very few are built with foundations - like in North Carolina or further north. When it's super cold, pipes in the crawlspace underneath can freeze if they are not insulated enough. If they are, it's not a problem. Some older houses in SETX are on foundations instead of slabs, but I wouldn't buy one. We have no bedrock underneath - just that d*amn white and red clay.

Pipes embedded into a slab won't burst because of cold. Be more worried if the slab dries out in a Texas summer.

If you have pipes in the attic and power can go out in a deep freeze, make sure they are insulated. Also, drip the faucets in the kitchen and bathrooms. Moving water doesn't freeze easily.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:50 am Nothing has changed for me regarding the forecast. Ensembles still have us cold and that is what matters at the moment.

When they don’t, or we get into hi-res and Ops trend away, then you can discuss.

With that said, Christmas is going to be below average to well below.
Right - let's keep in mind that 40°F for a high is just over 20°F below normal. That's a lot! Look back at the ensembles and posts 5-7 days ago. If the Siberian air crosses the North Pole, that is a possible (optimistic) scenario. Weather in the 20s has been far less likely, and dependent on a lot of variables: snowpack, magnitude of the high pressure, etc.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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Nothing has changed. We'll know more this weekend.
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Cpv17
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sswinney wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:23 am
NWHouston wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:49 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:57 am

Classic, illogical thinking and reaction that is so dominant in society now. :)
Wxman has always been the voice of reason in these scenarios. Its why I dont rush out for insulation until WXman 57 says its going to get cold. I was surprised by how many were actually calling him a troll....... Anyone who is honest would have to admit the odds are always in favor of the voice of reason when it comes to really cold air and winter weather here in SETX despite what all the models say leading up.

I have no idea how this will eventually play out, just know I follow the voice of reason up to when he heads for Australia
Maybe a voice of reason but he’s been wrong before just as anyone else has. Weather is a finicky thing and things can and will change.

I remember Blake losing the 2004 Xmas snow bet and having to dance around in a banana costume. There are plenty of people who can and will be wrong and that’s ok.
Thank you for posting! Your past 2 posts have been spot on. Post more often lol
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sambucol
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https://youtu.be/rYvNYyTMky4
Pow Ponder this morning about 40 minutes ago. Says 46 high for Houston Saturday. Sounds like the cold is coming. Siberian cold coming down over the snow pack so not much if any modification. Renewed surge of cold Christmas week. Very cold air coming. Ensembles showing this.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:36 am
sswinney wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:23 am
NWHouston wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:49 am

Wxman has always been the voice of reason in these scenarios. Its why I dont rush out for insulation until WXman 57 says its going to get cold. I was surprised by how many were actually calling him a troll....... Anyone who is honest would have to admit the odds are always in favor of the voice of reason when it comes to really cold air and winter weather here in SETX despite what all the models say leading up.

I have no idea how this will eventually play out, just know I follow the voice of reason up to when he heads for Australia
Maybe a voice of reason but he’s been wrong before just as anyone else has. Weather is a finicky thing and things can and will change.

I remember Blake losing the 2004 Xmas snow bet and having to dance around in a banana costume. There are plenty of people who can and will be wrong and that’s ok.
Thank you for posting! Your past 2 posts have been spot on. Post more often lol
I won that bet...but lost our minivan.

I drove down to Houston with the kids (they had never seen snow). The thermostat froze in place just blocks from my wife's brother's place in Houston and the vehicle overheated in 30 sec. It blew out the #1 cylinder. We walked over to her brother's place in 3-4 inches of snow on the ground. It was so quiet and almost no traffic on the streets. An iconic Christmas eve.

We had ice, sleet, a few flakes in CLL before 2004. Since then, we've had 7 snowfalls in College Station.
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DoctorMu
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sambucol wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:39 am https://youtu.be/rYvNYyTMky4
Pow Ponder this morning about 40 minutes ago. Says 46 high for Houston Saturday. Sounds like the cold is coming. Siberian cold coming down over the snow pack so not much if any modification. Renewed surge of cold Christmas week. Very cold air coming. Ensembles showing this.
Solid forecast. He called the Siberian ice station zebra cold back in October.
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DoctorMu
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Tornado outbreak possible from NOLA to Meridian. Lots of cells breaking out, potential rotation in some.
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DoctorMu
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11 tornado warnings active in LA, MS now. Hoping for farms, towns, and cities in the area to escape damage, injury, loss of life today. Nasty cells and they keep on comin'
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:17 pm Tornado outbreak possible from NOLA to Meridian. Lots of cells breaking out, potential rotation in some.
Dixie Alley strikes again.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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CMC drops me at or below freezing on Thursday evening (22nd) and when it ends (12z 12/24) I'm still not above.

GEFS keeps me in the 30s, touching 40 for highs for several days.

EPS roughly the same.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I haven't looked at the Euro but others saying its back to cold after the 0z hiccup.

Waiting on EPS
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Stratton20
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12z Euro is colder, but I also am not buying that it just suddenly turns the core of the arctic air sharply east of us
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:34 pm 12z Euro is colder, but I also am not buying that it just suddenly turns the core of the arctic air sharply east of us
Yeah that’s highly unlikely.
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Larry Cosgroves latest post is interesting
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From Larry Cosgroves

Bad model runs aside, there is still a large cold wave and significant storm in your future.

After a horrendous ECMWF and GGEM model run sequence form 0z Dec 14, I thought it might be best to wait until the 12z series were completed. That way, I could see if the suggested milder, quicker, further east solutions offered about winter weather might have some merit. Or, as I suspected, were mistakes caused by model error.

So now we have the latest guidance to look at, and which confirmed my earlier ideas that the Arctic air mass penetration would be more south, colder, and longer lasting. The sticky point here is the winter storm aspect, which I feel that the Canadian series is probably closest to the likely outcome. Southern branch energy will play a role, and that would mean a stronger low pressure through teh South and into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. As is the case developing now, another barrage of snow squalls and icing over of the Great Lakes should occur just before Christmas. Risks for snow and freezing rain/sleet must be considered from Texas into Appalachia and possibly the Northeast. The big story: bitter cold air that follows thsi system into central Mexico and Florida.

The ensemble platforms suggest that another cold vortex will form and drop into the mean 500MB trough, prolonging the cold for locations east of the Continental Divide. For certain, this is a complex pattern but one that energy and transportation interests must watch closely next week.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Unlike Joe B, I don’t classify Cosgrove as a hype artist.

I also happen to agree with his overall sentiment about the cold air and speed of it.
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:44 pm Unlike Joe B, I don’t classify Cosgrove as a hype artist.
No, but it comes awfully close/borderline at times. IIRC he called for major arctic blasts a few times last season that never panned out…
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