Re: November 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 7:37 am
Looks like the severe weather threat for next week shifted east. No longer includes the Houston area.
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Reminder that Larry did not say Houston for possible frozenStratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:16 am the only reason im even bringing this up despite the 00z Euro dropping the system, is because it kind of fits the time frame that some meteorologists like Larry Cosgrove are talking about, id rather the GFS be dead wrong, no one wants an ice storm lol
sambucol wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:26 amStratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:16 am the only reason im even bringing this up despite the 00z Euro dropping the system, is because it kind of fits the time frame that some meteorologists like Larry Cosgrove are talking about, id rather the GFS be dead wrong, no one wants an ice storm lol
Reminder that Larry did not say Houston for possible frozen
precip. He said specifically not too far north from here. Big difference.
He may have said that to you but in his write up to the general public, he didn’t mention that. I don’t like long range forecasts. There’s no way someone could accurately predict in 10+ days out what’s going to happen and where it’s going to happen. And I would personally only put my confidence level at maybe a 3 or 4 about that cold snap actually verifying. It’s still too far out and doesn’t have consistent model support yet. But in the way Larry wrote, one would think there would definitely be chances for wintry weather in southeast Texas. That was very aggressive wording he was using.
It wasn’t supposed to be.
Im not seeing any "cold" fronts through at least Christmas.
The issue is they didn’t do a split screen. A very basic thing. Something any station has been able to do since the 1980’s. They completely cut off the game to babble for 15 minutes about a marginal F0 tornado signature on radar. I kinda see the football fans’ side on this one. They could have at least done a split screen.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:38 am Apparently some of the KHOU meteorologists are getting blasted by the public for cutting in on the bills game last night due to a tornado warning, gotta love it when entitlement over a game is more important than safety lol
It’s already pouring here in the Wharton/El Campo area.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:33 amsambucol wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:26 amHe did say that to me in a private message. Not too far north from here ( Houston area) there may be frozen precipitation. I’m guessing that would still be in what is considered Southeast Texas. He is a professional meteorologist. I value his forecasts.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:16 am the only reason im even bringing this up despite the 00z Euro dropping the system, is because it kind of fits the time frame that some meteorologists like Larry Cosgrove are talking about, id rather the GFS be dead wrong, no one wants an ice storm lol
Reminder that Larry did not say Houston for possible frozen
precip. He said specifically not too far north from here. Big difference.
He may have said that to you but in his write up to the general public, he didn’t mention that. I don’t like long range forecasts. There’s no way someone could accurately predict in 10+ days out what’s going to happen and where it’s going to happen. And I would personally only put my confidence level at maybe a 3 or 4 about that cold snap actually verifying. It’s still too far out and doesn’t have consistent model support yet. But in the way Larry wrote, one would think there would definitely be chances for wintry weather in southeast Texas. That was very aggressive wording he was using.
sambucol wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:40 pmCpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:33 amThere’s no way any meteorologist can accurately forecast a wintry weather event just north of Houston that far out. I’m not even sold on it getting cold yet much less wintry weather. Larry is a great met and I value what he says greatly but no one on this earth could accurately forecast that. Can’t take everything at face value.
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022
As of 3 PM CST, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad
surface low situated to the southwest of Matagorda Bay have
continued to increase in coverage along and south of the I-10
corridor, although a majority of the precipitation remains situated
offshore. Nonetheless, environmental conditions are favorable for an
increase in both coverage and intensity of rainfall over the next
several hours, with a heavy rain threat still on the cards in the
evening and overnight hours. Persistent onshore flow has allowed for
a surge in total PW values, with models in fairly good agreement in
indicating an increase to approximately 1.8-1.9 in along the coast
this evening. Based on PW climatology values from nearby surface
sites (LCH/CRP), this exceeds the 90th observed percentile over a
period dating as far back as 1946.
Given the deep moisture in place, a robust midlevel low situated
over W Central TX providing ample vorticity advection, and the
aforementioned surface low tracking to the northeast, we anticipate
a period of widespread rainfall over the next 12-18 hours, which may
become heavy at times. High resolution guidance indicates an
increase in both rainfall coverage and intensity after 6PM this
evening and until mid-morning tomorrow as the surface low pushes
along the coast. As many locations yesterday received several inches
of rainfall and thereby have well-saturated soils, there will be a
flooding threat associated with these rains. Rainfall rates at times
may reach 2-4 in/hr in the strongest storms that develop, especially
along and south of the I-10 corridor. We have therefore maintained
the previously issued Flood Watch in effect until noon tomorrow.
Current thinking regarding rainfall amounts remains on track, with
widespread totals of 2-4 inches expected and locally higher amounts
of 5-7 inches possible. The greatest risk of these higher amounts
will be closer to the coast where the deepest moisture is available,
although overall amounts will be highly driven at the mesoscale and
tied to individual storm development. The chance for any severe
(i.e. wind, tornadoes) threats remains marginal at best, with a lack
of instability being the inhibiting factor despite a more favorable
shear profile.