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DoctorMu well thats gonna make for a fun route to class, could be worse though, unlike those poor students who lost their tents with the last atorm system

Storms are already forming to the southwest and moving into the metro.

Looking at the initialization of the latest HRRR run.And looking at the current radar not only here locally but also at the severe storms ongoing in the panhandle.The HRRR is under doing the storms ongoing at the moment and their area coverage.The NAM model which is more aggressive than the HRRR with this storm,could be more on the right track,we'll see.

don wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:53 pm Looking at the initialization of the latest HRRR run.And looking at the current radar not only here locally but also at the severe storms ongoing in the panhandle.The HRRR is under doing the storms ongoing at the moment and their coverage.The NAM model which is more aggressive than the HRRR with this storm,could be more on the right track,we'll see.

You’re right. I’ve noticed that too. Actually looks like a pretty good chance of rain not only tomorrow but tonight as well.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:56 pm

don wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:53 pm Looking at the initialization of the latest HRRR run.And looking at the current radar not only here locally but also at the severe storms ongoing in the panhandle.The HRRR is under doing the storms ongoing at the moment and their coverage.The NAM model which is more aggressive than the HRRR with this storm,could be more on the right track,we'll see.

You’re right. I’ve noticed that too. Actually looks like a pretty good chance of rain not only tomorrow but tonight as well.

There is action moving our way already. I'm a bit surprised at the speed and intensification this early.

don wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:53 pm Looking at the initialization of the latest HRRR run.And looking at the current radar not only here locally but also at the severe storms ongoing in the panhandle.The HRRR is under doing the storms ongoing at the moment and their area coverage.The NAM model which is more aggressive than the HRRR with this storm,could be more on the right track,we'll see.

The Mesos are definitely more aggressive on this 00z run.

Yep, it’s looking good actually. For once the ingredients are coming together at the right time. Maybe some thunder will wake me up at some point…

Complete miss #1 right on schedule. Like Moses parting the Red Sea.

Today looks meh. We’ll see what happens though but I’m not really expecting a whole lot. Be thankful if I can get a half inch. Tuesday looks more promising than today but who knows how that’ll look as we get closer.

I have to travel west on 10 today to Gonzales area, checking forecast and NWS Hou & SA have dropped any mention of severe for today. Gonzales had forecast 1-2" of rain now it's down to less than an inch.

Starting to see convection concentrate offshore…

Missed 100% of anything that came through last night except for about a little 30 second band. Everything is offshore or right at the coast.

The line coming later looks to me like it's further west than models had it so may come through and hour or two later than initially forecast.

Hello darkness my old friend….

Yeah there’s no way I’m getting anywhere close to 3” with this. Models tease again as usual.

.02" here in Cypress. Sigh.......

Unless that line fills out and slows down over here it's gonna be 20-30 minutes of heavy rain. Folks will be lucky to score 0.5 - 1.0 inch if that.

Its not over yet but it seems like every "major" rain event predicted (which with the lack of rain even 1-2" is major) over the past few years is usually a bust in timing, rainfall amount/coverage, intensity or all three. Even when its a high confidence forecast it usually doesn't pan out. Here's hoping this one holds out. My parents live in a red swath of extreme drought in Austin County and they have been showing the 2+" range for days down over them so I'm really hoping they see something significant. They have a pond on the property that ive never seen dry out completely and its getting pretty close at this point.

And power is out at my house despite absolutely nothing going on weather wise.

I wouldnt be surprised to see that line fall apart as it approaches from the west, another typical busted event by the models

Got about .25” overnight. Unless that line is going to drop 2.75” later, which I seriously doubt it, then once again, we get nowhere near what was forecasted. I agree, it seems like forecasted models have been waaaaaay off or complete busts the last year or so. Even during cane season.