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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:41 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:46 pm 78°F and dry. This is more like it. If it's going to be dry and it's Fall, let it be.

Compared with summer, loving the 80s and low DP. With the sun angle lower in now early Oct., at least there is less watering.

It’s going to most likely be dry till spring.

That would make us Florida. Without the hurricanes.

Should posted this here:

Temps now are great for me. Glad to be done with the 100-degree heat. Now if we could just get one decent rain to hold us over for awhile. Transportation and evaporation is less this time of year with the sun angle going down and the cooler weather. We don't need too much but something would be nice. My September rainfall monthly total was only 0.69" and that was all on the first or second of the month - nothing since.

00z Euro towards the end of its run has a nice build up of cooler canadian air beginning to spill into the central US, will have to watch that as it could bring in a stronger fall front sometime in the next 10-11 days or so

Cooler is good but we need some damned rain. Ground is still badly cracked where I'm at and everything is trying to die.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:55 pm Cooler is good but we need some damned rain. Ground is still badly cracked where I'm at and everything is trying to die.

Personally I just want some rain. Don’t really care too much if we get any fronts or not as long as the upper 90’s and high dew points don’t come back.

Id rather get a dry fall front and a nice cool down, than be dry and highs in the 90’s with humidity lol

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:55 pm Cooler is good but we need some damned rain. Ground is still badly cracked where I'm at and everything is trying to die.

October is usually our rainiest month. We will be back officially in drought soon if not already.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:03 pm Id rather get a dry fall front and a nice cool down, than be dry and highs in the 90’s with humidity lol

Same.

Yep - sliding toward drought.


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?TX

Here we go again.

Nothibg to worry about for folks along the gulf coast, stout blocking high pressure will shove 91L into CA

Noticing my plants and areas of grass are withering away from no rain. Had to bring hose out today. Hopefully we start to see some moisture soon. Don’t think Ive ever gone this long without looking at a radar just knowing there is nothing to look at… Lol

I'm 12-14 inches below normal right now, this is really bad.

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:58 am Noticing my plants and areas of grass are withering away from no rain. Had to bring hose out today. Hopefully we start to see some moisture soon. Don’t think Ive ever gone this long without looking at a radar just knowing there is nothing to look at… Lol

Expect that to continue for quite a while. No rain in sight.

The Euro continues to advertise a much stronger fall front around the 12th or so

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:22 pm The Euro continues to advertise a much stronger fall front around the 12th or so

The CPC thinks it slides east of us.

Cpv17 of course they do

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Tranquil conditions are expected to continue as mid to upper level
ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across Southeast
TX. We will continue to have a subtle warming trend as low level
moisture increases very gradually. The highs today will be in the
mid to upper 80s and in the upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday. Lows
tonight will be in the mid 50s to low 60s inland and in the upper
60s to low 70s along the coasts. Lows will be a degree or two warmer
on Wednesday night.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

In honor of today being National Taco Day (The Ultimate Taco Tuesday
of Taco Tuesdays) and with the trend of rather uneventful weather
continuing, let`s have a little AFD fun! See if you can spot all of
the hidden taco related puns below. There`s not too much to taco
`bout, but lettuce begin!

Going into Thursday, an upper level trough will be moving
southeasterly through southeastern Canada and eventually through the
northern portion of the Upper Midwest. As the southeasterly
progression continues, the trough begins to deepen as well and
results in a cold front pushing into Texas on Saturday. Now this is
nacho ordinary FROPA as the bulk of the cooler and drier air will
remain north and east of us. However, it`ll briefly guac back the
temperatures as we exchange highs in the upper 80s/low 90s Thursday-
Saturday for highs in the mid to upper 80s into early next week.
Surface high pressure does build in behind this front over the
Central Plains with an 850mb high directly overhead. So, with mostly
clear skies and light winds, we`ll see a return to the chili
temperatures as lows return to the upper 50s/low 60s beginning on
Saturday night.

As the surface high pressure scoots out to the east, onshore flow
makes a return early next week. This means that a gradual increase
in moisture and temperatures is in store for us, but maybe only
briefly. It`s a little early to spill the beans, but global models
are in agreement on another upper level trough digging down into the
Northern Plains midweek. It doesn`t appear to be anything spe-
shell as of yet and there is quite a bit of variance on the speed
and deepness of this trough, which explains the growing range
between the upper and lower MaxT NBM quartiles after Tuesday. Long
story short...this trough may end up being the source of our next
cold front. Stay tuned!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

VFR conditions with light VRB winds throughout the TAF period.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Light winds and low seas (1-3 feet) will persist through Saturday
when the next cold front arrives. Following the front on
Saturday, moderate northeasterly to easterly winds and elevated
seas (3-5 feet) will prevail through the remainder of the weekend.
Winds and seas begin to gradually subside going into Sunday night.
As a result of the postfrontal increasing winds, caution/advisory
flags will likely be needed over the weekend.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 73 85 73 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

The GFS is still pushing a major front. With rain on Oct. 12/13. Euro has a weaker front. CMC brings the front into TX where it stalls.

DoctorMu CMC has a massive cooldown behind that front, could help to potentially weaken ridging over the gulf and draw 91L northward