Scott747 wrote:Even though I'm a model lover I'm always apprehensive to post certain model runs. Take this only as extremely long range guidance with a better chance of NOT verifying. 939 system in the Central Gulf....
This has been the only one that has really interested me from either a chase perspective (will wait for IMBY worries much later) than the previous two storms. Must admit Earl is getting somewhat further to the W than I expected but still looks to miss the CONUS.
With that said... While the Euro is definitely troubling if taken literally we all know how quickly it and the other models can change their guidance. The Euro keeps shifting further W and S. For all we know it could show future Fiona headed towards C America in the next few runs. Can't wait for the upgrade and to get the first insight on what the NHC thoughts will be. With such a wide range between the Euro and
GFS the TVCN track I generally rely on is all over the place.
Yea this storm has been talked about by many from the beginning when it was still in Africa. Should be interesting to follow over the next two weeks
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Scott747 wrote:One thing to keep in mind is that the Euro is really a outlier right now and by a sizable margin. Consensus still takes this off the EC.
I am almost positive the Euro was the outlier with Ike too (please correct me if I am wrong). It should be interesting if tonight things trend that way then I would put more stock into that situation.
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I saved the Euro 192hr forecast from Sept. 5, 2008, a week before Ike hit. It did have Ike moving into the upper TX coast from 7 days out. However, it also had Hanna moving into Louisiana, so it was wrong there. This year, the Euro seems to be the westerly outlier of the models. Let's hope it remains so. Here's the image I saved:
97L doesn’t look too bad tonight. It has nice cyclonic flow and symmetry. No “real” deep convection (although it of course has convection) just yet but I expect that to change very soon.
Its slowness to develop may lead to a more westerly track, a bit south and west of Earl across the NE Caribbean and a possible threat to the East U.S. Coast. I don't buy the 12Z Euro solution of a New Orleans hit in 11 days quite yet. It's quite a westerly outlier.
The fact that it was the euro that had Alex covered so well, when all the other models took him north, troubles me. I even thought the euro was all wet. I'm not sure how this model has been doing since that time. I, for one, will not write it off so easily this time around. NOLA does not need another big storm so soon after Katrina, and Rita and Ike were enough to last a lifetime for our area. If I have learned one thing about the tropics, it is to expect the unexpected. It will be very interesting to see the conditions in the Caribbean and Gulf as this system gets closer.
0z Euro shifted back WAY further N and E making it a fish storm. Up to 90% development so we might see a upgrade tomorrow and get better insight with the first track.
So, the euro is not so good since Alex? I like that term, winshield wipering. Maybe it flips back to NOLA next round.
Crazy models... It just keeps looking like the Atlantic systems are going remain so. I can not help but think at some point before the season ends that we will get enough of a change to get some tropical rains.
Peak season for GOM is still in full force. Might not be a Cape Verde storm we have to worry about but something in the caribbean or homegrown. I'm not letting my guard down or using my supplies until after October 1st.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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ticka1 wrote:Peak season for GOM is still in full force. Might not be a Cape Verde storm we have to worry about but something in the caribbean or homegrown. I'm not letting my guard down or using my supplies until after October 1st.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 302042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010
...TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 48.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...FIONA COULD BE NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
One thing to watch, is this storm is moving completely west right now. On the other hand the NHC has a little bit of a north component for the next check point. If this does not start moving to 275-280 degrees then it is going to go south of the point and continue that. The other aspect that I think is concerning to me is that this storm is close enough to Earl to keep it in check. Earl is moving to the WNW-NW from here on out and that will bring more distance between the two. The thing that concerns me though is that Fiona will not feel the weakness and keep on a relatively westward track and get into the carribean. Right now the movement is west and should maintain that for a while especially if it stays weak. I am not saying the Euro is right with that Gulf run it had a couple of runs ago but just something to keep in the back of everyone's head while they are watching this storm:
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