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Regardless if anything comes our way or not, things look quite wet around here.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 6:13 pm 18z GFS with a Category 4 into far NE Mexico extreme South Texas, nasty run, but definitely raising an eye brow since the GFS refuses to back away from its strong storm solutions

Call me when the Euro sniffs something.

Doctormu The Euro might not pick up on it until it becomes a tropical storm we all know the good ole Euro, jokes aside the EPS are much stronger than the operational run

Nice pop-up thunderstorm happening here in midtown.

Mesoscale models look decent for tomorrow afternoon.

As far as the tropics go, I think we’ll need to pay attention to the wave way out in the eastern Atlantic too along with the one in the eastern Caribbean.

The 0z GFS is gonna end up looking pretty ugly at the end of it's run. Setup is pretty gnarly. Still in fantasy land and it's hard to imagine it verifying with how it handles the evolution of the current disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean and what looks to influence another either gyre or Colombian low. But the ICON 'hints' at it as well.

With it showing this for so many cycles it will go down as either the biggest fantasy cane bust or vice versa.

Yeah this run is going to be a doozy.

Already down to 987 mb and its not even in the gulf yet even though its long range that’s definitely going to be an ugly run

00Z GFS is about as bad as it can get but good news is it's 240 hours out.

And its not backing down either, this is going to be an interesting weekend and next week, hold on to your seatbelt folks, galveston would be wiped off the radar from a hit like that….

The ECMWF continues to push the system into Central America with no real latitude gained.

The GFS remains steadfast on tropical formation across the Western Caribbean during the middle of next week but other global models are much less bullish on development. The key difference between the ECMWF and GFS is the mid-level vort gaining latitude and detaching from the rest of the energy pushing into Central America. Ensemble support has also fallen off some overnight so time to see if any additional model support happens over the weekend.

00
FXUS64 KHGX 260848
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tomorrow Night)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

925-750mb trough/low over east Tx will move westward today. As this
occurs, the diffuse sfc trough situated closer to the coast will
begin lifting northward to the HWY59 & I-69 corridor this
afternoon...eventually washing out north of the CWA later tonight.

Coastal shra/tstms ongoing early this morning. Once we start seeing
the convective temps in the upper 80s to near 90 met further inland,
anticipate some sct activity to begin developing. Better
coverage/POPs should be located across the southeast half of the CWA
where higher PW`s will be situated...along with a seabreeze.

Precip should mostly taper off around & shortly after sunset with
the loss of heating. Sat/Sat night should feature a typical
summertime diurnally driven precip pattern. We`ll be situated in a
general weakness aloft - between some ridges to our ese & wsw. PW`s
& forcing aren`t all that much to write home about so shaved chances
down a touch from the NBM suggestions.

47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

May see a slight uptick in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday
afternoon compared to Saturday, especially along the coast and
east of I-45, as a weak upperlevel disturbance in the Western Gulf
moves slightly closer to the coast. The majority of the
precipitation Sunday afternoon into Monday will occur over the
Gulf and into Louisiana, but PWATs near 2 to 2.3" will mean
scattered showers and a thunderstorms remain a possibility for
most of SE Texas. A weak cold front will be moving down across the
Central Plains on Tuesday and will become a stationary front near
the Red River Valley on Wednesday.

There has been some back and forth in the Guidance on how far
south this boundary will get. Two days ago guidance was leaning
towards it getting to near the coast, then yesterday it was not
making it further south than the Red River, and now its back to
making it near the coast. No matter the solution, areas along the
coast will continue to see showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday thanks to the moist atmosphere and daytime heating. But
if this boundary does make it further south, then areas north of
Conroe may see increased shower and thunderstorm coverage. Because
of this wishy washy guidance, I capped PoPs around 55% for the end
of the long term.

Temperatures through midweek next week will be more of the same
with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s (cooler near the
coast) and low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s (warmer near
the coast).

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Exceptions might
be in/near storms and any very localized late night/morning fog.

47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

South to southeasterly flow will persist through at least mid week
next week with speeds around 5 to 10 knots during the day and
around 10 to 15 knots during the overnight hours. Small craft may
need to exercise caution during these overnight periods. Wave
heights remain near 2 to 3 feet through the weekend. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue into mid week next week
bringing locally higher wind gusts and wave heights.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 94 75 / 30 10 30 10
Houston (IAH) 93 75 92 76 / 50 20 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 90 81 / 40 40 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Fowler

Andrew im personally not sure whether to trust the GFS here, this particular area of the atlantic/caribbean the GFS has a notoriously high false alarm rate in terms of producing phantom systems, thats what I think is the case here considering there is almost no support from any other model, just my two cents though, could easily be wrong

If nothing else, those model runs should remind people to check their hurricane supplies and plans. It is that time of year

From Wxman 57 on S2K (and he works not 5 miles from my office..LOL)

Either the GFS is now the best model ever, developing this monster hurricane when no other model hints at it, or it's just another modelcane.

The models are of not much use right now. Plain and simple. Have to resort to old-school forecasting skills and rules of thumb

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 9:24 am The models are of not much use right now. Plain and simple. Have to resort to old-school forecasting skills and rules of thumb

I agree.

Morning Tropical briefing from Jeff:


There are a couple of areas of interest in the tropics over the next several days.

A trough of low pressure is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea this morning and is moving westward around 15mph. Thunderstorms activity with this surface trough is limited due to surrounding dry air. In fact, soundings from the Windward and Leeward Islands show significant dry air covers much of the eastern Caribbean Sea. As this trough moves westward, conditions may become more favorable for some development. NHC currently has and has had the chances for development at 20% over the next 5 days. There is little model support for this feature and the ensemble suite has shown an overall decreasing trend for development over the last 24-36 hours. However, the surface trough will be reaching the western Caribbean late in the weekend into early next week and any tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea should always be monitored for any signs of development.

A tropical wave located just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is moving westward at 10-15mph. Conditions are generally favorable for some development as this wave moves westward over the next several days and currently chances of formation are at 30%. Model support is generally higher for this feature for development, although there is still some dry air lurking to the north and another tropical wave to its southwest that has had decent thunderstorms activity for the last 24 hours which could potentially have some impact on this wave.

A reminder that use of deterministic model runs can vary widely between models and runs and when support from other models is lacking or their ensemble members, that draws low confidence. Posting and sharing of these individual runs on social media platforms causes unnecessary worry and concern.

A reminder that use of deterministic model runs can vary widely between models and runs and when support from other models is lacking or their ensemble members, that draws low confidence. Posting and sharing of these individual runs on social media platforms causes unnecessary worry and concern.

YEP!!