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Although I've not paid really close attention to the model's handling of tropics before, the Rapid Refresh has had some 30-35 kt (possibly some 40 kt pixels in there) winds down in that area near the low for the past several hourly cycles.

The 12Z NAM (outlier and non tropical model) suggests a little less development (no Hurricane this run)and brings the low into S TX near Corpus Christi.

srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z NAM (outlier and non tropical model) suggests a little less development (no Hurricane this run)and brings the low into S TX near Corpus Christi.

Interesting...when I get home in a bit I'm going to fire up the KWRF again and see what happens.

I don't see how much could happen here, it's almost near land now.

12Z GFS suggests a low (maybe TD) moving NNW near the Coast to Tampico through 48 hours.

I'm with Rip76 on this - I don't see how anything could or will develop being so close to land. I don't think it will bring us any rain here in SE texas either due to its too far south.

It looks like some of the models are hinting at a little farther north track. That should increase our rain chances.

If things get right, 90L has a shot at becoming TD 10 and Hermine. Regardless, we will get rain and that is fine with me.

I don't see much rain making it this far north.
Hope I'm wrong though, my yard is screaming.

Rip76 wrote:I don't see much rain making it this far north.
Hope I'm wrong though, my yard is screaming.

With a system like this a lot of the moisture is to the west of the system and with the trof falling back these two things should give a steady flow of rain for us.

KWRF pressure bottoms out at 988 mb and around 55 kt near landfall. 07/00Z.. Much further south than yesterday's run but looks a little north of most the other models.

NHC keeps a 60% chance of development...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

Am I seeing a spin up a little further north, than previously thought.
SE of Brownsville?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

Rip76 wrote:Am I seeing a spin up a little further north, than previously thought.
SE of Brownsville?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

Your best shot at seeing surface rotation is not with an IR satellite image. Use a high res visible when there are no obs available. Of course, there are quite a few obs in the Gulf, so that's the best way to confirm a rotation. There's nothing up by Brownsville, but I do detect an elongated trof all across the SW Gulf oriented north-south.

Hard to see on the iPhone here.
About 200 miles or so, SSE of Brownsville

Regardless of development, the HPC is mentioning this feature. Certainly appears that the moisture may linger a bit longer across TX.

HPC:

ELSEWHERE...QUESTIONS CONTINUE WITH RESPECT TO A DEVELOPING WRN
GULF OF MEX LOW RELATED TO FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E. THESE
CONCERN POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION AND MOTION TO NE MEX/TX JUST PRIOR
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN MAINTAIN
THE SYSTEM AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM CENTRAL TX THRU ERN OK/SRN
MO TO THE LOWER OH VLY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS TX MIDWEEK MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AND LEANED AWAY FROM
THE NAM...THOUGH RECENT ECMWF TRENDS FAVOR A STRONGER SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE/PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY MID-LATER WEEK AS
PER DEEP MOISTURE THEN EVENTUAL FRONTAL APPROACH. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE NHC CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

RECON is scheduled to investigate starting tomorrow...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 05 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNENTS OF GASTON
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/1800, 07/0000Z A. 07/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0108A GASTON B. AFXXX 0208A GASTON
C. 06/1600Z C. 07/0415Z
D. 17.0N 57.0W D. 17.0N 60.0W
E. 06/1700Z TO 07/0000Z E. 07/0500Z TO 1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 78
A. 06/1600Z A. 07/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 06/1300Z C. 07/0300Z
D. 21.0N 96.5W D. 22.0N 97.5W
E. 06/1500Z TO 2200Z E. 07/0500Z TO 1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES ON GASTON.
B. NEGATIVE ON SUSPECT AREA IN GULF.

3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT
INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 06/1000Z.
NASA DC-8 WILL FLY A 10 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT INTO
GASTON BETWEEN 35 AND 39,000 FT. DEPARTING 06/1800Z.

Hi Res Visible Imagery suggests a rather vigorous llc moving a bit further offshore this afternoon. There does appear to be a bit of a northerly component with that feature as well.

When they fly this, what will be found is that the llc is pretty far off shore. Even the current Sat. photos suggest that. Not only that, but it will a bit further north than the far sw portion of the Gulf, as currently being suggested. This is all based on
visual only, but I do believe it to be correct. We'll see...

At any rate.. Whatever position it is officialy called to be in, this sharp turn west, or wnw seems a bit off kilter to me. I would suggest a NNW movement. I'm not sure this could ride straight north all the way up, due to steering mechanisms currently across the gulf. At some point it has to move over land in Mexico or Texas. My call is Northern Mexico to CC Texas. Map that llc further east and north, still, and that landfall could swing even further up the Texas Coast. This would also mean more time over water.

This one is for you, Dan.

PS... I hope you gave that snow making Ray gun to Steve for the upcoming winter. AD would be greatly upset if you didn't.

Just a side note. At the moment, this system looks to be moving slightly east of north. That movement would have to change to add a westerly component at some point before too long.