Remnants of Hermine

[srainhoutx]

Here what some of the Weather Offices along Coastal TX are thinking this afternoon...

Brownsville:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUNDAY...JUST BEFORE
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN A PREEXISTING
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE WILL SHAPE THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WET PATTERN WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE DUE TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND UNSETTLED WEATHER...
THOUGH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WILL DRAG INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE EARLIER SOLUTION WHILE THE
GFS FAVORS THE DELAYED SOLUTION. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASE INTO THE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS EXPECTED...AS THESE WILL BE MAINLY TROPICAL SHOWERS...AND
QPFS ARE NOT SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVIER AND MIGHT CAUSE PERIODS OF
NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE A CONSIDERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF
FORECAST SHORT TERM ACCUMULATIONS TREND UPWARD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AT SOME POINT...LATE
TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND EARLIER TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE
NAM...BUT HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SEEM TO BE INDICATED. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST.

Corpus Christi:

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK HINGES
ON PATH AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW INTENSIFICATION BUT NAM HAS NOT
BEEN TRUSTWORTHY IN REGARDS TO QUICKLY SPINNING UP THESE TROPICAL
LOWS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN CHANCES SHARPLY INCREASING BY LABOR
DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS SHOW
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER COAHUILA THAT LEADS TO A
VERY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN THIS AREA.
EXPECT THE LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE IN NORTHEAST MEXICO BY
TUESDAY WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH PWAT
VALUES FROM 2.5 TO 2.8 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST TRACK OF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY
WEDNESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS REMAINING THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE RIO GRANDE WATERSHED IF THIS
SYSTEM DOES TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TREND OF
LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. WINDS WILL AT SCA LEVELS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.



Houston/Galveston:

TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO SE TX IN EARNEST LABOR DAY
MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH THE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN LATCHING ONTO
AND AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH DEPICTING AT LEAST A TROPICAL LOW BUT
DO NOT DEVELOP IT AS OF YET. EVEN SO...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON THE RISE MON MORNING AS REGARDLESS OF MODEL CHOICE
MOISTURE WITH 2-2.5 INCH PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SE
TX BY 18Z MON. POPS AROUND 50/60 PERCENT LOOK ON TRACK AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT STARTING MON THROUGH WED. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WED SO WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS ON TUE AND
40/50 POPS ON WED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EACH DAY.


Austin/San Antonio:

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS STILL AREN`T IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW MUCH...IF AT
ALL...TO STRENGTHEN THE GULF LOW/WAVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD
CONSENSUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE SITTING
ACROSS TEXAS. THIS WOULD DRAW THE GULF LOW/WAVE NORTHWARD AND
THEREFORE FEEL VERY CONFIDENT WITH CONTINUING WITH A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2.5"+ BY TUESDAY
AND HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDS/EARLY THRS AS THE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD.

[kayci]

srain... I'll take what I can get at this point. Having a BBQ party tomorrow, but rain is WELCOME! I have plenty of room indoors and rain will not stop the big pit from smokin! I'm afraid to water my yard as I just now got my water bill down below $40.00! The front is welcome at my door and so's the rain!

Thanx for all you do for us.

[Met Tech]

Hi everyone...I just signed up this morning and figured I'd share some forecast graphics from my KWRF model concerning the potential Gulf system. It seems to be wanting to go for hurricane strength before landfall in Northern Mexico around 12Z on the 7th.

Pressure bottoms out at 983mb (purples are 65 kt and higher)

gulf3.jpeg (84.05 KiB) Viewed 4589 times

[srainhoutx]

Welcome aboard Met Tech. It should be interesting to see what your KWRF model offers in the weeks ahead. There are strong suggestions that the Western Caribbean and Gulf could become rather active. Meanwhile our SW Gulf feature is up to 40%

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[djjordan]

This could be Alex's sister Hermine taking hitting almost the same area. BTW welcome Met Tech .... looking forward to more of your input on our forum

[srainhoutx]

Vorticity is nearing the SW BoC. We should see 90L sooner rather than later...

[Ptarmigan]

Did not mention that most of the major hurricanes that make landfall are from Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Especially in wet July's.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking it looks more like the TD Two setup than Alex. Weak low to TD moving inland before it gets too strong.

[Andrew]

GFS doesn't get a good grip on the storm and until a definite low forms the models will prob bounce around. One thing is looking pretty good and that is an increase rain chance for us here:

[Andrew]

Also look at this:

[sambucol]

It's an invest now. 90L.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009050513
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 189N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 193N, 958W, 20, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Met Tech]

Looks like all the coastal WFOs are discounting a stronger system like the NAM depicts (which is similar to KWRF). Haven't seen any reasoning behind it though.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah the Coastal WFO's are discounting the NAM (non tropical model) for a GFS/ECMWF solution of a weaker system. We shall see. Regardless, the rain chances look to be going up beginning tomorrow. Certainly worth watching until it gets onshore.

RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[Met Tech]

Yeah the Coastal WFO's are discounting the NAM (non tropical model) for a GFS/ECMWF solution of a weaker system. We shall see. Regardless, that rain chances look to be going up beginning tomorrow. Certainly worth watching until it gets onshore.
[/i]

I just wonder if that's the only reason they're throwing out the NAM. I don't really pay attention to the NAM with tropics, and wouldn't question the wisdom of tossing it out in this case if it didn't look close to KWRF, which I ran twice with different configurations and still came out with a stronger storm. The one I posted yesterday used the setup that tends to be conservative with tropical systems.

NCEP's 5km ARW and NMM models seem to have a smaller, more tightly wound system as well. It seems the higher-resolution models are being more aggressive with it even with their individual internal differences.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah Met Tech, even the HPC is discounting the NAM as an outlier even with rainfall potential. This all could change as things progress throughout the day...time for coffee...looks like a busy several days...

HPC:

QUESTIONS SURROUND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT THIS TIME /WHICH STEMS FROM FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11-E WHICH STRUCK SOUTHEAST MEXICO ON SATURDAY/...HOW STRONG IT
WILL BE...AND WHEN/WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
INTO TEXAS JUST PRIOR TO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THERE ARE A
HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WHICH MOVES FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FOR
NOW...KEPT THE SYSTEM A TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS TEXAS EARLY ON
SIMILAR TO HOW IT WAS COORDINATED AT 16Z ON SATURDAY AND LEANED
AWAY FROM THE 00Z NAM...THOUGH THE RECENT TRENDS SEEN IN THE ECMWF
FAVOR A STRONGER SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS
THE LONE STAR STATE/PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TO MID PERIOD. SEE THE LATEST OUTLOOKS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like pressures are falling slowly in the BoC...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[Met Tech]

Welcome aboard. The workstation wrf and the handle sound strangely familiar.

I have nothing to add, but I hope it beings rain, haven't really been short on rain the last few weeks, but as long as it isn't flooding, I figure more is better than less.


Hey Ed! Hope you guys do get some rain. I talked to my grandma yesterday in Sabinal (west of San Antonio) and her grass is getting crispy as well. Hopefully this thing can manage some good rain in both spots.

[djjordan]

I would not be surprised at all to see this thing become a Tropical Depression later today. It looks very good on Satellite and as Steve said pressures are falling in the area.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...12Z tracking guidance is rather impressive...

Code: Select all

238 
WHXX01 KWBC 051229
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC SUN SEP 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100905 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100905  1200   100906  0000   100906  1200   100907  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  95.6W   20.3N  96.1W   21.4N  96.9W   22.7N  97.6W
BAMD    19.4N  95.6W   19.9N  96.3W   20.3N  97.0W   20.9N  97.8W
BAMM    19.4N  95.6W   20.2N  96.0W   20.8N  96.7W   21.7N  97.5W
LBAR    19.4N  95.6W   19.9N  96.1W   20.8N  97.1W   22.1N  98.5W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          42KTS          51KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          42KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100907  1200   100908  1200   100909  1200   100910  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.2N  98.9W   27.5N 102.1W   31.9N 103.2W   38.0N  98.9W
BAMD    21.6N  99.0W   23.4N 101.8W   25.6N 103.9W   28.5N 104.1W
BAMM    22.8N  98.6W   25.3N 101.3W   28.6N 103.0W   33.2N 101.0W
LBAR    23.8N  99.9W   28.7N 101.9W   35.2N  99.5W   39.6N  89.3W
SHIP        60KTS          73KTS          77KTS          71KTS
DSHP        34KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.4N LONCUR =  95.6W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  18.9N LONM12 =  95.6W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  18.6N LONM24 =  95.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[srainhoutx]

Latest...appears that and area of low pressure is forming just offshore from Veracruz (reporting W winds)...