Remnants of Hermine

[Andrew]

A couple of models have been indicating that a possible storm could develop over the next couple of days and head towards the western gulf coast. This storm has attracted the attention of many over on the general discussion thread, but I thought it would be a good idea to start a separate thread.

NAM:



CMC:



Euro:




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html


Seems like this will be something that we really need to keep an eye on for potential development and potential flooding problems.

[Andrew]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
251 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RATHER POTENT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO TAKE AIM ON THE TEXAS COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALSO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
SAT/SUN. THE ECMWF...GFS AND CAN SHOW THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOICATED
WEAKNESS ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z ECMWF/CAN ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF DISPLACING THE PRECIP TOWARD LOUISIANA...WHILE
THE GFS PLACES THE GREATEST RAINFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST. THE
ECMWF/CAN HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CONSISTENCY AND PREFER THE MORE
STABLE GFS. THE GFS SHOWS PW VALUES OF 2.4 TO 2.6 INCHES AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THR COAST. IF THE GFS PANS OUT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT. COULD SEE EXCESSIVE RAIN AT THE COAST AND LESS THAN AN
INCH OF RAIN WELL INLAND. WHICHEVER SUITE OF MODELS IS
CORRECT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND LOWER HEIGHTS TRANSLATING INTO LOWER TEMPERATURES. 43

[Mr. T]

18Z NAM solution would keep all the rain offshore.

The rain was done at my place by the time Humberto was declared. A TC that forms SE of here might not be the best thing for my lawn.

Lucky for you, nobody cares about the NAM after 36

[Scott747]

18Z NAM solution would keep all the rain offshore.

The rain was done at my place by the time Humberto was declared. A TC that forms SE of here might not be the best thing for my lawn.

Lucky for you, nobody cares about the NAM after 36

lol

Hey I'm a certified model lover but I've never seen one of the worst models (tropically speaking) being used so much as the NAM has been this year.

Not picking on you Ed, just overall across the boards I keep seeing it being used as a tropical reference.

[Andrew]

18Z NAM solution would keep all the rain offshore.

The rain was done at my place by the time Humberto was declared. A TC that forms SE of here might not be the best thing for my lawn.

Lucky for you, nobody cares about the NAM after 36

lol

Hey I'm a certified model lover but I've never seen one of the worst models (tropically speaking) being used so much as the NAM has been this year.

Not picking on you Ed, just overall across the boards I keep seeing it being used as a tropical reference.

Yea I post it myself at times. I think many including myself just post it to look at all models. Most of the time i post FWIW but it is always good to know what every model is thinking even if it is a bad tropical model.

[srainhoutx]

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

I'll be very interested in what the 00Z runs offer tonight. Worrisome pattern for some folks regarding potential rainfall for part of TX and LA.

[Ptarmigan]

This should be an interesting week. If that disturbance forms in the Gulf of Mexico, it would probably be TD8 and possibly Fiona. Regardless, we could be seeing heavy rain and floods.

[biggerbyte]

WOW! What a change. Anyone still bored with this season? I have ten browser windows open now just to
monitor all of the activity.

The Gulf has been kinda disturbed for a few days now. I knew it was only a matter of time. We are entering a pattern change now that could effect the northwestern and western gulf more than we have been seeing as of late. My place needs rain, big time. We all may get more rain than we need over the coming days.

[Rip76]

I absolutely love the last shot before sundown, when there's convection in the gulf.
Complete 3-D.

[Andrew]

Tropical Weather Statements
416
NOUS42 KNHC 241300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT TUE 24 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8-HR RESEARCH
MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AT 38,000 FT.
TAKEOFF TIME IS 24/1400Z.

[Scott747]

I'll have to double check but I think that flight was for the GRIP project and not related to anything brewing in the Gulf.

[Scott747]

I'll have to double check but I think that flight was for the GRIP project and not related to anything brewing in the Gulf.

Now that I think about it, it may actually have something to do with the potential feature. The 'G' in GRIP stands for Genesis. Duh!

[srainhoutx]

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Morning AFD from Corpus Christi, Houston and Lake Charles...

CRP:

THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE WEEKEND
FORECAST AS 12Z AND 00Z MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN WET/DRY SOLUTIONS. AND MUCH OF THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS ON
WHETHER A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
NW GULF. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF NOW KEEP THE
SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE THIS WEAK FEATURE INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS A WET FORECAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z
NAM DEVELOP A T.D. AND MOVE IT NWD TOWARD THE PALACIOUS AREA WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS KEEPING THE MID
COAST MOSTLY DRY. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INDICATE CHC POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF
AN THE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION PANS OUT IT WILL BE A WET WEEKEND WITH HVY
RAIN PSBL. BUT IF A LOW DVLPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER COAST WE
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. EXPECT CHC OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ALOFT AND PWS REMAIN ABOVE 2
INCHES.

HGX:

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS TO
NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATE THIS WEEK
AND PUSH INLAND SATURDAY BRINGING A DEEP MOIST LAYER OVER OUR
REGION ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW. SPEED CONVERGENCE NEAR COASTAL REGION
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS COMING WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BE SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM THE UPPER
80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

LCH:

INVERTED TROF OVER THE WESTERN GULF MIGRATES WEST AND NORTHWEST
WITH ACCOMPANYING ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND NORTH TO NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND. WILL
TREND POPS TO LOWER AND MORE SEASONAL LEVELS GOING INTO THE WORKWEEK.

[srainhoutx]

Surface Analysis Chart...

[srainhoutx]

Watching E of Brownsville...

[Rip76]

It looks pretty "prime" out there.

This place is dead, I figured it would be jumping right now.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS suggests a weak surface low in S TX on Saturday...

[srainhoutx]

2 PM TWO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.