Remnants of Hermine

Mon Sep 06, 2010 3:35 am

No dispute on the northward motion. The 1am update acknowledged it.

From the 10 pm disco. 'Turn' isn't expected till sometime today.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 3:50 am

TS warnings up to Baffin Bay.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 3:51 am

Scott747 wrote:TS warnings up to Baffin Bay.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 060849
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 95.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 3:58 am

Scott747 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Scott, do you have any ASCAT pass info or vorticity update?
I think someone posted one over on Eastern as if it suggested a center reformation but this one has been pretty defined for awhile. I've got like 20 windows open on dual screens right now so I'm slow as molasses.

From the 4 am disco -

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES.
ASCAT..

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:03 am

Oh for goodness sakes. The craziest Texan/Alaskan is here. Forgetaboutit.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:05 am

Easy now. I have family on Afognak Island.

Looks like NHC is still a bit unclear on the initial track and faster motion...

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD WHICH HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED OF HERMINE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A FASTER
MOTION THAN THE GFDL/HWRF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FORWARD MOTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:09 am

srainhoutx wrote:Easy now. I have family on Afognak Island.

Do they drive around Alaskan highways at extreme high rates of speed testing some weird looking contraption on the top of their roof?

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:14 am

Scott747 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Easy now. I have family on Afognak Island.
Do they drive around Alaskan highways at extreme high rates of speed testing some weird looking contraption on the top of their roof?

Nah, but they do drive the boats at ridiculous speeds and the float plane landings/takeoff in the narrow bay is bit hair raising. Is see NHC is leaving the door open to extend the watches and warning a bit further up the coast in S TX.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:15 am

srainhoutx wrote:Easy now. I have family on Afognak Island. Looks like NHC is still a bit unclear on the initial track and faster motion...

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD WHICH HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED OF HERMINE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A FASTER
MOTION THAN THE GFDL/HWRF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FORWARD MOTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.

While seemingly small the difference between the previous disco was the movement. Instead of a stronger turn to the NW they now have it staying on a NNW heading which was one of the reasons for the warning being adjusted up the coast not to mention that the models have moved slightly to the N.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:18 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Scott747 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Easy now. I have family on Afognak Island.

Is see NHC is leaving the door open to extend the watches and warning a bit further up the coast in S TX.

Where do you see that?

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:20 am

You must be talking about the timing with the GFDL/HWRF.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:21 am

NHC just sent out an updated/corrected advisory...

Atlantic Tropical Storm HERMINE Advisory Number 2...CORRECTED (corrected)
Mon, 06 Sep 2010 04:02:27 -0500

000
WTNT35 KNHC 060902
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

CORRECTED NAME OF CYCLONE IN RAINFALL SECTION

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 95.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:28 am

HGX morning update is out. Flood Watch will be issued from a Freeport to Columbus line westward for tonight. They stated the may have to extend those eastward on Tuesday. Full AFD in the September Weather Discussion...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=368

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:31 am

srainhoutx wrote:NHC just sent out an updated/corrected advisory...

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY.

Makes sense. That timing comment in the disco jumped out at me.

Though folks shouldn't mistake that as meaning this far N (at this time.) I suspect that's more directed towards the middle Texas coast area.

No doubt though that our rain chances are increasing in coverage and amount with the adjustments to the N. Need to start pulling up HPC maps.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:37 am

HPC QPF Forecast Update :

...WRN GULF COAST/SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY...

THE LATEST NHC FCST TRACK FOR NEWLY FORMED T.S. HERMINE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A LANDFALL ACRS EXTREME NERN
MEXICO...WITH ITS POOL OF DEEP TROPICAL MSTR/ENERGY EXPECTED TO
THEN CROSS THE RIO GRANDE VLY EARLY THIS PD ON TUE AND ADVANCE
STEADILY NWD ON WED TWD THE S CNTRL PLAINS AS IT ROUNDS THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE
SYS SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT ADVANCES NWD...BUT THE MID LVL
VORTICITY/CIRC WITH THE SYS EMBEDDED WITHIN SUCH DEEP MSTR AND
INSTABILITY WILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL
CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION...AND A POTENTIAL FOR A CORE OF
VERY HVY RAINFALL TOTALS NR THE CENTER THROUGH THE PD. PLS SEE THE
LATEST NHC FCST DISC/ADVISORY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:39 am

HPC touches on the timing issue. Plus I hadn't even checked the latest Euro for any changes.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...PREFERENCE FOR A TRACK CLOSEST TO THE
12Z GFS BUT WITH A LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE PER NHCS INTENSITY
FORECAST
THE NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWEST/WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS
PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER/MORE
NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE PAST
DAY OF ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN STRONGER AND MORE NORTHERLY THAN ITS
PREVIOUS DAY OF RUNS. WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE TO THE NHC
TRACK...THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/12Z AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A
SIMILAR TRACK SHAPE BUT ARE 12 OR MORE HOURS QUICKER THAN
NHC/THEIR OBJECTIVE AIDS IN DRAGGING THIS SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO 12 HOURS FASTER BUT TAKES THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY ROUTE THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND THE 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...WHICH ARE ALSO TIMED 12 HOURS FASTER...THIS POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE DISCARDED OR IGNORED. THE ONLY PIECE OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE NOTED WHICH RESEMBLES THE NHC TRACK IS THE 12Z
GFS...WHICH IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC CONCERNING THE FUTURE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:58 am

Quick snippet out of EWX -

448 AM CDT MON SEP 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL AMPLIFY AN ALREADY WET FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
PERIOD FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
TRACK FROM NHC AND MODEL CONSENSUS REFLECT GOOD CONFIDENCE AS A
DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STEERS
THE STORM TO THE NNW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
SSE WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ELONGATED RAIN PATTERN...STRETCHING
THE QPF PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM IN A NNW-SSE ELIPTICAL
SHAPE...WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHIFTING GRADUALLY NW FROM OUR
SE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 5:24 am

Scott747 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:NHC just sent out an updated/corrected advisory...

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY.
Makes sense. That timing comment in the disco jumped out at me.

Though folks shouldn't mistake that as meaning this far N (at this time.) I suspect that's more directed towards the middle Texas coast area.

CRP -

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
519 AM CDT MON SEP 6 2010

BASED ON
COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CRP CWA ARE
BEING HELD OFF...HOWEVER IF TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN NEXT
PACKAGE THEN WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 5:26 am

HGX in the Flood Watch Statement showing concern for a surface boundary that guidance is suggesting to set up from our Coastal Counties northward toward I-10. Could be a focusing mechanism for some very heavy rainfall if that occurs.

SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A DISTINCT SURFACE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE
COAST AND INTERSTATE 10 LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD THIS BOUNDARY
ACTUALLY DEVELOP...IT COULD BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
INTENSE RAINFALL LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.

Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:21 am

First visible images should be interesting...

Remnants of Hermine

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