June 2022

[Cromagnum]

And now for our 15 days out GFS Scareicane.

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum lol that run is all over facebook now, and here comes the widespread panic, the gfs scaricane strikes again!

[captainbarbossa19]

Cromagnum lol that run is all over facebook now, and here comes the widespread panic, the gfs scaricane strikes again!

The worst part is when so-called experts start posting this garbage. Everyone thinks panic is the best way to get more views, and unfortunately, that is not incorrect.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 exactly its really pathetic, I just had to make a post about it on my facebook account so that my friends/family dont get spooked over it

[jasons2k]

Hot today for sure!!

[Stratton20]

Interesting read from Travis Herzog, already a moderate confidence zone issued by NOAA for next week, that is really surprising at least to me

[tireman4]

Meanwhile, current synopsis...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs are present among latest observations,
though conditions should generally be on an improving trend over
the next several hours with VFR conditions expected to prevail
from mid-morning through the remainder of the day. South to
southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots during the afternoon,
with gusts reaching as high as 20 knots. Winds relax overnight
as MVFR cigs appear likely to redevelop once again.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Synoptic pattern remains generally unchanged as we continue through
the week, with robust mid/upper ridging remaining the dominant
feature over the South Central CONUS while at the surface a broad
area of high pressure remains in place over the Eastern Gulf. This
persistent pattern will result in continued hot and humid conditions
through the remainder of the week, with heat at times reaching near
dangerous levels during the afternoon hours. Have continued to side
with the upper quartile of national blend distribution for high
temperatures in this forecast as in recent packages, with most
locations around and north of the I-10 corridor reaching the upper
90s to near 100 this afternoon. Locations closer to the coast will
see highs in the lower/mid 90s, while overnight lows in the upper
70s to low 80s will be commonplace area-wide. Much of the same for
Thursday with most locations again reaching the upper 90s, while
some locations across the northwestern zones may break the 100 mark.

With moderate onshore winds continuing to provide ample low-level
moisture to the area as dew points generally remain in the 70s,
dangerous heat index values in the 100-107 range are expected during
the afternoon hours today and Thursday. While this is below our
typical threshold for the issuance of a Heat Advisory of 108,
protective actions from heat must such as remaining hydrated and
avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day must
nonetheless be taken. Other heat stress metrics, such as the Wet
Bulb Globe Temperature, indicate that apparent temperature values
during this time will be well above our normal values for early
June. Given this, those with outdoor plans in the coming day should
pay close attention to current conditions and continue to keep heat
safety in mind.

Cady


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday Night]...

At least several more days of hot (possibly record breaking temperatures)
and humid weather can be expected at the end of the week and on through
the weekend with strong ridging aloft and a persistent onshore flow
remaining in place. Nearly all guidance available points toward a large
portion of inland locations having high temperatures in an upper 90s
to 104 degree range. Afternoon heat index values will approach and exceed
108 degrees, so a Heat Advisory will be needed. Any relief from the
heat (cold front) looks to remain well to our north over the weekend,
and any potential shower development coming off the Gulf (chances too
low to carry in the forecast) will be too small and too short-lived
to help cool locations down. With no significant changes in the weather
pattern expected into the first half of next week, there will be little
to no heat relief for our area.

It must be emphasized once again to make sure all safety precautions
are taken during this heat event, even if there is no Heat Advisory
in effect. Never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles as
interior temperatures can reach lethal levels in just a matter of
minutes.

42


.MARINE...

Early morning surface observations around both Galveston Bay and
Matagorda Bay as well as offshore buoys are showing winds generally
around 15 to 20 knots with a couple spots above 20 knots. These speeds
should come down as the day progresses, but we will need to carry Caution
flags for all waters through the morning hours. Light to occasionally
south to southeast winds through the end of the week and south to southwest
winds over the weekend can be expected. Caution conditions will be possible
at times. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect along all Gulf-
facing beaches and could continue through the end of the work week.

42


.CLIMATE...

For the second consecutive day, Galveston recorded a low temperature
of 83 degrees. The 83 on Monday broke the old record of 81 set in 2020.
The 83 on Tuesday broke the old record of 82 in 1994.

Galveston`s average temperature for the first week of the month of 85.6
degrees is 3.1 degrees above normal and ranks as the warmest first
week of June on record (second place is 85.4 degrees set in 2008).
Galveston`s records date back to 1874.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 98 77 99 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 78 98 77 100 / 0 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 92 82 91 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CDT today for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CDT today for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

Cromagnum lol that run is all over facebook now, and here comes the widespread panic, the gfs scaricane strikes again!

The worst part is when so-called experts start posting this garbage. Everyone thinks panic is the best way to get more views, and unfortunately, that is not incorrect.

It's easy to be imaginative 354 hours out.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu beyond 10 days we should just call the GFS the Global Funky System

[captainbarbossa19]

Cromagnum lol that run is all over facebook now, and here comes the widespread panic, the gfs scaricane strikes again!

The worst part is when so-called experts start posting this garbage. Everyone thinks panic is the best way to get more views, and unfortunately, that is not incorrect.

It's easy to be imaginative 354 hours out.

It is, but many freak out when they see model runs like that because they do not understand the low chances of something verifying that far out.

[tireman4]

Meanwhile, back home....

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions currently across Southeast TX terminals today with
S-SE winds at 10-15 KTS with gusts up to 25 KTS on occasion.
Expect a mix of VFR to MVFR cigs overnight with winds decreasing
to 3-8 KTS. There is a chance for patchy fog to develop
overnight, in particular from 10-14Z, but confidence is low at
this time and have not included it in this TAF set. Fog, if any,
will burn off shortly after sunrise. As the morning progresses,
cigs will gradually rise and scatter out. S winds at around 5-10
KTS on Thu.

24

&&

[DoctorMu]

Dang. Any chance of rain is out of the forecast for the foreseeable future. Nuthin' but 100s as far as the eye can see.

Shades (so to speak) of 2011.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu I saw a post by someone on facebook that I believe near the big bend area they hit a high temperature of 117 (confirmed by that areas NWS office) yesterday, don’t remember the town name though, for early June that is some serious heat

[captainbarbossa19]

Dang. Any chance of rain is out of the forecast for the foreseeable future. Nuthin' but 100s as far as the eye can see.

Shades (so to speak) of 2011.

Still not quite as dry yet, but it's getting bad. I am not convinced that if anything tries to move this way, it will pull a Don. 1961 was very dry too and featured Carla in September.

[jasons2k]

In terms of size and intensity, Carla was the most powerful hurricane to hit the US coast. See the Impact Weather scale.

This isn’t like 2011 yet. Most lakes and ponds are still doing OK.

I did hit 102 though…

[DoctorMu]

In terms of size and intensity, Carla was the most powerful hurricane to hit the US coast. See the Impact Weather scale.

This isn’t like 2011 yet. Most lakes and ponds are still doing OK.

I did hit 102 though…

Not yet. But we started seeing 100°F+ in early June just like this year, and the Death Ridge did not give up its grip until September. Too many trees died in 2011-2013.

Off to provide them water and feed now.

[captainbarbossa19]

In terms of size and intensity, Carla was the most powerful hurricane to hit the US coast. See the Impact Weather scale.

This isn’t like 2011 yet. Most lakes and ponds are still doing OK.

I did hit 102 though…

Right. I remember lakes being very low in February 2011. Drought during that time really started in fall 2010. I'm hoping June will be really hot, but then the pattern will turn wet later this summer. Otherwise, it's going to be brutal.

[Stratton20]

Good grief the 00z GFS is drunk, cat 4 into brownsville the GFS scaricane strikes again!

[Cpv17]

Good grief the 00z GFS is drunk, cat 4 into brownsville the GFS scaricane strikes again!

Lol now it’s showing probably a cat 2 into Tampa Bay. Basically skirts the entire west coast of FL. What will the 12z show?

[Cromagnum]

At this point, it's going to take a tropical system to give us any shot at rain. 2011 all over again.