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Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:24 pm
by Stratton20
Sambucol yes, the GFS , Euro, and their respective ensembles, although i dont know too much about how to read SSWE’s on guidance,, if you want to have a good read, look up a guy named Judah Cohan on X, he published a free public article talking about this yesterday, very reliable source and has years of research done on the polar vortex and SSWE’s, NOAA mentioned possible SSWE in their 3-4 week outlook so it definitely is catching meteorologists attentions

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:38 pm
by sambucol
I’m not so certain winter is done. With a SSWE, doesn’t that dislodge the cold air sending it into the lower 48?

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:44 pm
by Stratton20
sambucol not all the time, a SSWE can also effect other areas of the world such as asia/ europe, so its not a guarantee that it will effect the us or down here, but if you remember back in january when we got really cold, that was due to.a SSWE occurring, but that was a minor SSWE, this one could be potentially a major SSWE, their is usually a 2 week delay after a SSWE has occurred so we have alot of time to watch and see how this plays out

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:49 pm
by sambucol
In Feb 2021, was there a large SSWE?

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:54 pm
by Stratton20
Yep that is correct, but since this one is headed towards march, it wouldnt be as nuts because its march, however you can still get really cold in march if the SSWE impacts our side of the globe

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:59 pm
by sambucol
Yes it can get really cold in March. I hope we do get another cold front before spring really arrives.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:06 pm
by Stratton20
sambucol youll like the picture i posted in the march threat if you like cooler/ below average temps!

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2024 8:12 am
by sambucol
Checked it out. Looks good for March with the cooler temps.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Feb 18, 2024 11:27 pm
by Thundersleet
Personally, I do not mind if March ends up being below average temperature wise and the same with early and perhaps even mid Spring to delay the Summer heat.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Feb 18, 2024 11:30 pm
by Thundersleet
And as KHOU 11 News Chief Meteorologist David Paul would say something like & I quote “let Winter be Winter and each season of the year be itself.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:45 am
by Stratton20
Thundersleet couldnt agree more, i don’t care if its 5 degrees below average or 20 below average, anything to delay the awful heat that is happening inevitably coming is highly welcomed!

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:49 am
by sambucol
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:45 am Thundersleet couldnt agree more, i don’t care if its 5 degrees below average or 20 below average, anything to delay the awful heat that is happening inevitably coming is highly welcomed!
Yep.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2024 5:54 pm
by Stratton20
Major SSWE should be taking place this week, think this ones the real deal, the 18z GFS shows the Polar Vortex coming back over to our side of the globe during the first week of march, though its not reflected at the surface yet , I think despite the US might get one more big shot of cold weather before we are done

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:06 pm
by Ptarmigan
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:45 am Thundersleet couldnt agree more, i don’t care if its 5 degrees below average or 20 below average, anything to delay the awful heat that is happening inevitably coming is highly welcomed!
I will take that for sure. :twisted: 8-)

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:27 am
by sambucol
Yes!!! Bring it!

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:34 pm
by Stratton20
Um what? Im not sure ive ever seen this outlook in march before, looks like maybe a pretty chilly rest of march after this week