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Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:37 pm
by Stratton20
Cosgrove says a -EPO /-NAO / -AO becomes the dominant pattern for February, im expecting this thaw period to be short lived
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2024 6:24 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:37 pm
Cosgrove says a -EPO /-NAO / -AO becomes the dominant pattern for February, im expecting this thaw period to be short lived
Hopefully we can get some cross polar flow.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:04 am
by Thundersleet
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 6:24 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:37 pm
Cosgrove says a -EPO /-NAO / -AO becomes the dominant pattern for February, im expecting this thaw period to be short lived
Hopefully we can get some cross polar flow.
Here here, some cross polar flow.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:05 pm
by Cpv17
Towards the end of the month the models are predicting another big blocking -NAO.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:09 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 yep, just gotta give the pattern time to recharge, hopefully we can get a couple of bigger systems in february, really sidnt get much from this event
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:17 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:09 pm
Cpv17 yep, just gotta give the pattern time to recharge, hopefully we can get a couple of bigger systems in february, really sidnt get much from this event
Usually climo favors more snow here in late January and into February.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:08 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Man that’s a steep -EPO on the 30 day ensembles
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2024 5:18 pm
by Stratton20
No kidding, it really takes a nose dive!
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:22 pm
by Cpv17
How strong of a -EPO are we talking here? -3 value??
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:33 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
The 30 day average is approaching that.
That tells me we could see potentially see 4 to 6 range.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:15 pm
by Cpv17
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:33 pm
The 30 day average is approaching that.
That tells me we could see potentially see 4 to 6 range.
Damn! Yeah, that’s impressive.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:44 pm
by sambucol
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:44 pm
Brief relaxation period after this , pattern looks to reload as the ridge reestablishes itself over alaska in the 11-16 day period, looks like end of january into all of February looks very cold
I think it was Larry Cosgrove who said a brief warm up in January then a cold February. Looking forward to more cold.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:37 pm
by DoctorMu
Thundersleet wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:04 am
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 6:24 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 5:37 pm
Cosgrove says a -EPO /-NAO / -AO becomes the dominant pattern for February, im expecting this thaw period to be short lived
Hopefully we can get some cross polar flow.
Here here, some cross polar flow.
The Trifecta and Siberian Express. I'd certainly like to see it.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:41 pm
by Cpv17
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:37 pm
Thundersleet wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:04 am
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 6:24 pm
Hopefully we can get some cross polar flow.
Here here, some cross polar flow.
The Trifecta and Siberian Express. I'd certainly like to see it.
Me and you both.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2024 3:34 pm
by Cpv17
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:12 pm
by Stratton20
Beginning to see that ridge getting pumped up into Alaska on the GFS, day 11, we got a lot of winter to go, and i think its gonna be a fun february!
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2024 6:54 pm
by sambucol
Im looking forward to February! We are leaving our winter preps in place with the exception of the frost cloths over the plants.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2024 12:05 pm
by Stratton20
Im starting to lose faith in a cold februrary, that pacific jet pattern could be coming back…..
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:23 pm
by sambucol
Cosgrove says it’s coming in February
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2024 8:11 pm
by Stratton20
Im hoping, im seeing alot of talk of the MJO stalling in the warmer phases, and allowing the pacific jet to flood the US with mild air