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Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:47 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 well our last arctic outbreak wasnt due to a SSWE i believe, I can see why he says this one could be more severe,I cant remember if we had a SSWE last winter but the last one I remember was the one in February of 2021, and we know how that played out
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2022 5:37 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:47 pm
Cpv17 well our last arctic outbreak wasnt due to a SSWE i believe, I can see why he says this one could be more severe,I cant remember if we had a SSWE last winter but the last one I remember was the one in February of 2021, and we know how that played out
Yeah, I believe that’s correct. Last year I don’t remember one occurring.
Interestingly, the GEFS and EPS are now both agreeing on ridging into western/northern Canada and into Alaska in about two weeks.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2022 6:21 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 yep! Its going to be a step down process but im definitely starting to like what im seeing in terms of ridging, warm weather lovers days are definitely numbered lol
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:52 pm
by Ptarmigan
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:25 pm
Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.
That is a month from now. I hope it is not like 2021.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:20 pm
by sambucol
Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:52 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:25 pm
Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.
That is a month from now. I hope it is not like 2021.
Either here or S2K someone mentioned it (within the last few days) might be historic.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:38 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
LARGE sigma SSW underway.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:44 pm
by Cpv17
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:51 pm
by Stratton20
I dont know what that means, but im assuming thats pretty significant in regards to the SSWE
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:59 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:44 pm
6 right?
5-6 sigma
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:59 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:51 pm
I dont know what that means, but im assuming thats pretty significant in regards to the SSWE
That’s a 5-6 standard deviation
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:29 pm
by sambucol
Then this would be historic if it verifies. Larry also mentioned storms:
“ Massive sudden stratospheric warming occurring will likely culminate with widespread Arctic intrusion and major storm along Gulf and East Coasts mid-January.”
I’m assuming those storms would be winter storms with the Arctic intrusion.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:40 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:29 pm
Then this would be historic if it verifies. Larry also mentioned storms:
“ Massive sudden stratospheric warming occurring will likely culminate with widespread Arctic intrusion and major storm along Gulf and East Coasts mid-January.”
I’m assuming those storms would be winter storms with the Arctic intrusion.
Hard to say for us this far out.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:44 pm
by Ptarmigan
sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:20 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:52 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:25 pm
Cosgrove said that he expects the cold later in January or February to be more severe than what we just experienced. That’s a huge risk for him to say imo. I would never say anything like that if I was a met so he must be feeling really confident.
That is a month from now. I hope it is not like 2021.
Either here or S2K someone mentioned it (within the last few days) might be historic.
February 1895 and 1899 are freezes in their own class. Same goes with January 1886 or 1930.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:31 pm
by Cpv17
We’re gonna be stuck in this pattern till after the 20th at least. At least that’s what my original thought was and now it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s pushed back till after the 25th.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:41 pm
by Stratton20
The SSWE is hype, its not happening, ensembles look bleak, January as a whole looks like a complete garbage can of a month for weather, this weather pattern sucks, operational models look boring, sigh
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:46 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:41 pm
The SSWE is hype, its not happening, ensembles look bleak, January as a whole looks like a complete garbage can of a month for weather, this weather pattern sucks, operational models look boring, sigh
I wouldn’t give up on winter yet. Late January or February can still produce. Models can flip on a dime. Seen it happen before. Right now we just gotta get this California onslaught to stop before we have a chance of anything here.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:08 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 what im not fully understanding is how models are showing the MJO going back into phase 8 which is a cold phase for us and the eastern US, but yet the ensembles and global models continue to show nothing but above normal weather over the next several weeks, im not sure what to believe
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 8:09 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:08 pm
Cpv17 what im not fully understanding is how models are showing the MJO going back into phase 8 which is a cold phase for us and the eastern US, but yet the ensembles and global models continue to show nothing but above normal weather over the next several weeks, im not sure what to believe
It’s confusing a lot of people. But all I know is that we won’t ever get any cold as long as Cali keeps getting hammered like this.
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 8:59 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 it does look like the GFS is starting to break it down at around hour 200-240 ish, a reconfiguration of the Jet Stream occurs
Re: Long range model discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:25 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 8:59 pm
Cpv17 it does look like the GFS is starting to break it down at around hour 200-240 ish, a reconfiguration of the Jet Stream occurs
Sometimes you can scroll through Twitter and find some good reads. Sounds to me like a -EPO might be returning late January/early Feb. If that’s the case I hope the AO tanks.