Long range model discussion

[sambucol]

Thundersleet yeah we arent finished yet, models are showing, especially the euro, a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex breaking off and diving down into central canada and eventually the US border, this is something that could drag down some much colder air into the US, but it also will give the models plenty of fits

Is that in the Feb 17-20 timeframe?

[Stratton20]

sambucol yeah, for now the euro is the most bullish, so we just wait and watch

[Stratton20]

Hmm? Models agree we get chilly this weekend, now if we can just time that cold air..

[Cpv17]

Hmm? Models agree we get chilly this weekend, now if we can just time that cold air..

Wish it would happen! Prove all the doubters wrong about winter being over lol

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I know man, i dont care if we just get flurries, i just want something exciting to happen, fingers crossed this isnt a one time run, but knowing the GFS, its probably just a tease lol

[sambucol]

What kind of temps?

[Stratton20]

Sambucol highs in the low 40’s, lows near 32 ish,

[Stratton20]

Interesting , just updated a few days ago by NOAA, they dont think winter is over, also discussing potential 2nd SSWE with possible impacts in early march

[Stratton20]

GFS, Euro and both ensembles on board that a SSWE is under way sometime this week i believe, from what ive heard at least, potentiall impacts in early march, but could also just effect europe just as much as the US, so lots to watch, but this is a big factor as to why I believe people are throwing the towel in way too early despite us going into a warmer pattern for a while

[sambucol]

Stratton, are the models showing a SSWE?

[Stratton20]

Sambucol yes, the GFS , Euro, and their respective ensembles, although i dont know too much about how to read SSWE’s on guidance,, if you want to have a good read, look up a guy named Judah Cohan on X, he published a free public article talking about this yesterday, very reliable source and has years of research done on the polar vortex and SSWE’s, NOAA mentioned possible SSWE in their 3-4 week outlook so it definitely is catching meteorologists attentions

[sambucol]

I’m not so certain winter is done. With a SSWE, doesn’t that dislodge the cold air sending it into the lower 48?

[Stratton20]

sambucol not all the time, a SSWE can also effect other areas of the world such as asia/ europe, so its not a guarantee that it will effect the us or down here, but if you remember back in january when we got really cold, that was due to.a SSWE occurring, but that was a minor SSWE, this one could be potentially a major SSWE, their is usually a 2 week delay after a SSWE has occurred so we have alot of time to watch and see how this plays out

[sambucol]

In Feb 2021, was there a large SSWE?

[Stratton20]

Yep that is correct, but since this one is headed towards march, it wouldnt be as nuts because its march, however you can still get really cold in march if the SSWE impacts our side of the globe

[sambucol]

Yes it can get really cold in March. I hope we do get another cold front before spring really arrives.

[Stratton20]

sambucol youll like the picture i posted in the march threat if you like cooler/ below average temps!

[sambucol]

Checked it out. Looks good for March with the cooler temps.

[Thundersleet]

Personally, I do not mind if March ends up being below average temperature wise and the same with early and perhaps even mid Spring to delay the Summer heat.

[Thundersleet]

And as KHOU 11 News Chief Meteorologist David Paul would say something like & I quote “let Winter be Winter and each season of the year be itself.