March 2010- In Like A Lamb, Out Like A Lion?

[texoz]

Tornado video from Oklahoma yesterday. Good stuff. Thankfully & amazingly, nobody hurt.

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/us/201 ... wn.mxf.cnn

[ticka1]

Just wanted to post its 70 degrees outside. Please stick around we like you 70 degrees.

[TexasMetBlake]

Well, March 2010 will very likely miss out as being the only March never to hit 80. As of 3pm, IAH sits dangerously close at 79 degrees. Drats..

[wxman57]

Well, March 2010 will very likely miss out as being the only March never to hit 80. As of 3pm, IAH sits dangerously close at 79 degrees. Drats..

Yeah, I see. Just goes to show that a little onshore flow even with lots of clouds and rain can get the temperature up to 80 rather easily this time of year.

[sleetstorm]

Just wanted to post its 70 degrees outside. Please stick around we like you 70 degrees.

You know, ticka1, I was outside today, enjoying the much pleasent weather and weeding my garden, and as much as I do sub freezing temperatures and wintry preciptiation I was honestly taking all of it in, even though I think that it is still a few weeks too early for Spring to initiate. But hey, that is just me.

[sleetstorm]

The current temperature in Baytown is 70 degrees fahrenheit. I do not know where some of you are getting an 80 degree reading for Houston today?

[wxdata]

0z GFS shows an interesting scenario for next week. If the forecast holds, it should be an interesting start to the new week.

[Ptarmigan]

That should be an interesting early next week.

[sleetstorm]

Severe thunderstorms to initiate the new work week next week, that would be interesting if does in fact verify. What does the weather look like for Spring Break this year or do any of the computer models not go out that far? Is the second half of this month predicted to be much cooler? Earlier, some of us were talking about the second half of this month could turn out to be colder or have the models depicted something different?

[wxdata]

Nogaps pretty much agreeing with GFS on upper system moving across Texas early next week....

[wxdata]

SPC- SE TX under slight risk for severe weather today (Wednesday,) however best dynamics stay north and east.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 0_prt.html

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the Mid March pattern change time frame is on track. The HPC Extended Prelim Disco continues to paint an interesting picture...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
743 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

VALID 12Z SUN MAR 14 2010 - 12Z WED MAR 17 2010

...FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A STUBBORN POSITIVE ANOMALY ACROSS HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO FAVORS PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONES ABOUT 20 DEGREES
UNDER ITS BASE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S LATITUDE. THE MODELS AGREE
ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH/OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEAST...BUT ARE SOUTH OF THIS IDEA WITH THE SECOND CLOSED
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS FINALLY JOINED THE CLUB CONCERNING THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS A
CYCLONE BYPASSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN BOTH CASES...THE 00Z
ECMWF/ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SLOWER THAN THE 06Z GFS/ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND STAND AT OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE OVERALL 00Z ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND KEEP REASONABLE
DETAIL IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...CHOSE TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z BIAS-CORRECTED NAEFS MEAN WITH SOME
ALTERATION TOWARDS OVERALL 00Z ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING ACROSS THE
EAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC...GULF OF MEXICO...AND OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/WESTERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE
CONTINUITY.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...
AFTER DRYING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST...A LOW PRESSURE AREA BYPASSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
HEADS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WITH MODERATE RAINS ANTICIPATED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CAUSED BY MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY...
THE TIME FRAME OF THE 15TH THROUGH THE 17TH LOOKS WET ACROSS TEXAS
AND FLORIDA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST. GULF
MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES TEXAS AS STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW COUPLED WITH UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD YIELD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE
PERIOD WHICH IS BEST ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...BRINGING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MID NEXT WEEK.

MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
THE TIME FRAME OF THE 13TH THROUGH THE 15TH CONTINUES TO LOOK WET
AS A LARGE AND DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC WAITING TO COUPLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST...WHICH BRINGS HEAVY COMMA HEAD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS
FROM MARYLAND NORTHWARD. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW COVER
ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS NEW YORK/NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES BRING THE SPECTER OF FLOODING TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ROTH

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL TX...EXTREME SWRN/S-CENTRAL
OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101344Z - 101545Z

INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS IS LIKELY THROUGH
MID-MORNING LOCAL TIME...OR APPROXIMATELY 15Z...FROM PORTIONS NW AND
N-CENTRAL TX TO VICINITY RED RIVER REGION...POSSIBLY BACKBUILDING OR
DEVELOPING SWD TO PORTIONS CENTRAL TX AS WELL. INITIAL POTENTIAL IS
MRGL FOR HAIL...BUT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT FOR
BOTH HAIL AND CONVECTIVE GUSTS.

MAINLY MIDLEVEL CONVECTION HAS INITIATED IN RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX INVOF DYS...WHERE 850 MB SWLYS HAVE
BEEN EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER WINDS AND SFC DEW POINTS
INITIALLY WERE IN 30S F. HOWEVER...RAPID RETURN OF RELATIVELY MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS AND IR IMAGERY OVER
CENTRAL TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD...IN PROJECTED
PATH OF STG LARGE-SCALE UVV ZONE AHEAD OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE MOVING
EWD ACROSS ERN NM AND ASSOCIATED WITH GROWING CONVECTIVE PLUME.
RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AS UVV BELT ENCOUNTERS NWRN FRINGE OF RICHER
MOISTURE...AND SFC HEATING STEEPENS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MID-LATE
MORNING...CONVECTION MAY INCREASE/EXPAND FURTHER AND BECOME NEARLY
SFC-BASED...WITH INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE FARTHER S OVER HILL COUNTRY.

OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT MISLEADING IN THAT MAF/FWD RAOBS DID
NOT SAMPLE RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE WELL...AND AS SUCH CONTAIN NO CAPE.
SIMILAR CAPE DEFICIENCY IS EVIDENT EVEN IN RUC NEAR-TERM FCST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION...THOUGH PRESENCE OF TSTMS IN ACTUALITY
CONFIRMS OTHERWISE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRENGTHENING OVER THIS
REGION WITH APCH OF TIGHTEST HEIGHT GRADIENTS PRECEDING UPPER
VORTEX...AS EVIDENT IN 6 KM AGL WINDS INCREASING FROM AROUND 55 KT
AROUND DYS TO 70 KT AT JTN PROFILER.

..EDWARDS.. 03/10/2010


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

WOUS64 KWNS 101404
WOU9

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-027-035-085-097-099-113-119-121-139-143-145-147-161-181-
193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-337-
349-363-367-379-395-397-425-439-467-497-102100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0019.100310T1410Z-100310T2100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
ELLIS ERATH FALLS
FANNIN FREESTONE GRAYSON
HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL
HOOD HOPKINS HUNT
JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO
PARKER RAINS ROBERTSON
ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT
VAN ZANDT WISE


ATTN...WFO...FWD...

[svrwx0503]

Latest visible sat really shows the explosive thunderstorm development over the past hour to the west of Mineral Wells along with additional cu development back building to the south. Morning low clouds have already burned off across our northern counties which will quickly allow temps to rise towards the convective temp. Current forecast which has the best chances for storms up north looks good at this time. We will likely see additional development back across central Texas later this morning which we will have to keep an eye on for the possibility of some of the storms getting on Houston during the afternoon. '

Current VIS Sat imagery (notice the overshooting tops in N-Texas)

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
832 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

TXC503-101500-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-100310T1500Z/
YOUNG TX-
832 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST
FOR EASTERN YOUNG COUNTY...

AT 832 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST
EAST OF GRAHAM...TO NEAR LOVING...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 820 AM...HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN GRAHAM.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, looks like my area of SC Tx has been included in SPC's latest mesoscale discussion. Could be a bit rough later this morning around the state capital.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0164.html

[wxdata]

SPC: Updated Convective Outlook

"MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LOWER
MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CENTRAL TX. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...7-8C/KM...OVERSPREADING THE AREA...CONDITIONS ARE NOW
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION QUICKLY WEAKENS. "

Full outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... _1630.html

[wxdata]

Stormy up north: severe thunderstorm warning for Dallas.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19...

VALID 101701Z - 101830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19
CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 19 WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NE TX EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 19 BY 18Z.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A 995 MB SFC LOW IN
SCNTRL OK SWD TO AROUND DALLAS. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE TX PANHANDLE.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG FROM SE OK EXTENDING SWD
ACROSS MOST OF EAST TX. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS EXPAND THE STORMS
ACROSS SERN OK SWD ACROSS MOST OF EAST TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE STORMS BECOME
SFC-BASED.

..BROYLES.. 03/10/2010


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...