March 2010- In Like A Lamb, Out Like A Lion?

[wxdata]

Are we out of danger for high winds and hail now?

From thunderstorms, yes. However:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY...

.STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER SATURDAY.


...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

WINDS MAY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT WELL INLAND BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. EXPECT SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

[Paul]

just got back from West end...winds in the upper 20's gusting to low 30's....windchill down there about 37F...ugh....

[sleetstorm]

How do you decipher a storm system's intensity, wxman57, wxdata, srainhoutx, Ptarmigan, Mr. T? Are there certain numbers that indicate how strong and weak that it is?

[C2G]

Aunt called from Sanger (Just north of Denton.....which is north of Dallas Fort Worth) said they were getting snow again, big flakes.
She calls every time it snows up there now since our December 4th snow event.......just to rub it in, and she's rubbed it in a lot this winter.
For the love of everything decent in this world please bring on SPRING.
I truly HATE cold weather now.

[wxdata]

Wind chill at IAH at midnight is only a nice chilly 31!

[Poltracker]

It was still snowing in Dallas area this morning. Big problem was the wind and visibility. My brother reported almost 4 inches of snow in Rockwall. I was supposed to meet him and my sister in Buffalo this AM to give him a car (his got wrecked thanks to an unidentified 18 wheeler losing its wheel) but we had to cancel because the road conditions were so bad up there.

[wxman57]

How do you decipher a storm system's intensity, wxman57, wxdata, srainhoutx, Ptarmigan, Mr. T? Are there certain numbers that indicate how strong and weak that it is?

First of all, are we all enjoying this first full day of spring? It's so nice to be done with all that cold, windy weather, isn't it? Anyone heading to the beach today to get some sun?

As for determining a storm's intensity, we look at its reflectivity in dBz. The more reflective, the stronger the storm. And we look at vertically integrated liquid (VIL) values. And we can look at Doppler velocity data to find evidence of rotation. The reflectivity and VIL values that determine severity do change a bit from season to season. Most modern radar programs help out with the determination with built-in algorithms to identify a severe storm by indicating rotation and hail size.

[Ptarmigan]

First of all, are we all enjoying this first full day of spring? It's so nice to be done with all that cold, windy weather, isn't it? Anyone heading to the beach today to get some sun?

As for determining a storm's intensity, we look at its reflectivity in dBz. The more reflective, the stronger the storm. And we look at vertically integrated liquid (VIL) values. And we can look at Doppler velocity data to find evidence of rotation. The reflectivity and VIL values that determine severity do change a bit from season to season. Most modern radar programs help out with the determination with built-in algorithms to identify a severe storm by indicating rotation and hail size.

It is too cold to go to the beach right now, you got me thinking. Normally, it should be warm by now. I remember last year at this time, it was.

[Katdaddy]

The snow was great in Dallas and I am glad I got experience another snowfall. Driving out of Dallas was dangerous with the snow/slush covered bridges. Lots of wrecks. Glad to be home and very ready for real Spring.

[sleetstorm]

How do you decipher a storm system's intensity, wxman57, wxdata, srainhoutx, Ptarmigan, Mr. T? Are there certain numbers that indicate how strong and weak that it is?

First of all, are we all enjoying this first full day of spring? It's so nice to be done with all that cold, windy weather, isn't it? Anyone heading to the beach today to get some sun?

As for determining a storm's intensity, we look at its reflectivity in dBz. The more reflective, the stronger the storm. And we look at vertically integrated liquid (VIL) values. And we can look at Doppler velocity data to find evidence of rotation. The reflectivity and VIL values that determine severity do change a bit from season to season. Most modern radar programs help out with the determination with built-in algorithms to identify a severe storm by indicating rotation and hail size.

What precisely/specifically is dBz?

[sleetstorm]

Have any of you ever been in an Derecho, Bow Echo, Hook thunderstorm, & Supercell thunderstorm in the past? I know that this is off topic but I am just inquistive to read about your thoughts and stories.

[Ptarmigan]

Have any of you ever been in an Derecho, Bow Echo, Hook thunderstorm, & Supercell thunderstorm in the past? I know that this is off topic but I am just inquistive to read about your thoughts and stories.

I have been through a bow echo before. Lots of wind and rain. Kinda feels like you are in a hurricane.

[svrwx0503]

What precisely/specifically is dBz?

dbz is the amount of transmitted energy returned back to the radar with the values increasing along with the amount of reflectivity energy. For example, a thunderstorm containing hail will give much larger dbz (aka reflectivity) values than just a light shower because the hail stones will be able to reflect more energy than just light rain.

[wxman57]

What precisely/specifically is dBz?

This explains it, though it's technical. And the numbers the author identifies to distinguish light from heavy rain/strong storms looks to be "northern" numbers. Down south, we typically see much higher dbZ values, particularly in the warmer months.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DBZ_%28meteorology%29

[srainhoutx]

I hope we are now done with this crazy winter pattern that brought many new records across TX with a -AO, -NAO, +PNA and blocking that was relentless since December. Bring on the warmth!

It's official: North Texas had one of the snowiest winter seasons on record.

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth reported today that North Texas got 17.1 inches of snow this cold season, ranking it No. 2 behind the 1977-78 season which got 17.6 inches.

Of course, this weekend's dusting of snow helped the 2009-10 total. Dallas/Fort Worth Airport recorded 1.2 inches of snow on Saturday, which shattered the old record of 0.4 inches established on March 20, 1970. An additional 0.1 inches of snow earlier today brought the weekend total to 1.3 inches.

Yes, spring did arrive on Saturday, but meteorologist Dan Shoemaker said today that the NWS observations are not based on the calendar, but on the more loosely defined season.

So if North Texas gets snow in the next few days, that will be considered still part of the winter season by NWS standards, he said. But he said the 10-day outlook for North Texas isn't calling for snow.

"I'm 90 percent sure we're done," Shoemaker said. "I wouldn't say 100 percent."

North Texas has seen a late March snow in the past. The last time an inch or more fell on North Texas was March 29, 1937, when 2 inches fell.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/03/21 ... z0iubHSXis

[sleetstorm]

What precisely/specifically is dBz?

This explains it, though it's technical. And the numbers the author identifies to distinguish light from heavy rain/strong storms looks to be "northern" numbers. Down south, we typically see much higher dbZ values, particularly in the warmer months.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DBZ_%28meteorology%29

Thank you, wxman57. I thought that dBz was acronym form for decibels, I was ninty-nine point nine percent certain that is what it stood for and now have helped to verify.

[sleetstorm]

I drove into a supercell North of Beltway 8 on I-45 four or five years ago. It was obvious from its appearance. Kind of rare in Houston to be able to see a thunderstorm one is approaching, usually too much cloudiness in the way.

Lowered base to the SW edge.


I encountered marble, maybe quarter sized hail. Loud on the car, but no obvious damage. Passed right through the Walters/Gears/Veterans Memorial area.


I saw an LP supercell over the Franklin Mountains in West Texas, lit by the natural light or the light from El Paso. Motel Six on I-10. Not very wide, but tall, and a slow rotation was obvious. Never put down a tornado.


I have seen tropical funnels in South Louisiana, and a super skinny waterspout while I was on an offshore drilling rig, from a tall cumulus, but one that did not appear to be tall enough to be a thunderstorm cloud.

I read in weather book, back when I was attending high school, that Supercell thunderstorms are only ten miles across. I tell that is very small for a thunderstorm even a supercell.

[sleetstorm]

I hope we are now done with this crazy winter pattern that brought many new records across TX with a -AO, -NAO, +PNA and blocking that was relentless since December. Bring on the warmth!

It's official: North Texas had one of the snowiest winter seasons on record.

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth reported today that North Texas got 17.1 inches of snow this cold season, ranking it No. 2 behind the 1977-78 season which got 17.6 inches.

Of course, this weekend's dusting of snow helped the 2009-10 total. Dallas/Fort Worth Airport recorded 1.2 inches of snow on Saturday, which shattered the old record of 0.4 inches established on March 20, 1970. An additional 0.1 inches of snow earlier today brought the weekend total to 1.3 inches.

Yes, spring did arrive on Saturday, but meteorologist Dan Shoemaker said today that the NWS observations are not based on the calendar, but on the more loosely defined season.

So if North Texas gets snow in the next few days, that will be considered still part of the winter season by NWS standards, he said. But he said the 10-day outlook for North Texas isn't calling for snow.

"I'm 90 percent sure we're done," Shoemaker said. "I wouldn't say 100 percent."

North Texas has seen a late March snow in the past. The last time an inch or more fell on North Texas was March 29, 1937, when 2 inches fell.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/03/21 ... z0iubHSXis

I second that, srainhoutx. Now that Spring began this past Saturday I am also looking forward to warmer days and it looks like Easter will be terrific, temperaturewise, with a high in the upper seventies and a low in the mid sixties from what Mr. Eric Berger reported. I will gladly take it. But, as always, that prediction is forecast to alter. But I, for one, pray that it does not, at least not cooler.

[sleetstorm]

Spring officially arrives on April 1st this year.

What do you mean, temperaturewise, Ed Mahmoud

[wxman57]

Spring officially arrives on April 1st this year.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

What do you mean, temperature-wise, Ed Mahmoud

The red areas on the map Ed posted represents very warm air at 850mb (5000 ft up). This is suggestive of quite warm temperatures at the surface, maybe into the mid 80s or even the upper 80s. GFS only forecasts 77 degrees for early April, but it's tended to be too cool in its forecasts.