March 2010- In Like A Lamb, Out Like A Lion?

[wxdata]

Now that you guys have fancy icons, can't your's rotate between admin and pro-met, or even have both?

Software barely allows for two avatars (as I found out when I wiped out avatars for a few..)

It could be done, but then I'd lose my neato flashing thunderstorm!

[wxdata]

Small hail reported in Madisonville.

[wxdata]

3 hour RUC sounding for UTS would suggest still based above 850 mb layer up there, but close to being warm enough to break the cap.


Stronger cap here.


ETA
15Z RUC doesn't pick up shower activity North of UTS, so maybe its a shade pessimistic.

Yeah, that model run didn't have any rain in the DFW area until late afternoon..

[biggerbyte]

Once we get past, say around 2 pm, our chances for severe weather will dwindle. I don't hold for much more than a slight chance at any given time today. Well see as the afternoon progresses. Folks north should watch out for much greater risk.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the East of Houston...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-102100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1120 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

[wxdata]

A nice dew point drop behind the wind shift line as well. Georgetown reporting dew points in the 60's. 50 miles west in Llano, dew points in the 30's.

[wxdata]

From NWS Austin/San Antonio

"Austin partners...we've got a close eye on the storm developing along the pacific front over central Travis Co. This storm will likely move directly over downtown Austin between 115-130PM. No lightning as of 1253PM...but is trending up per latest radar scans. The 18Z LAPS analysis shows CAPES of 1500-1700 J/Kg and LIs of -7 over Travis Co...so anticipate this trend to continue. "

[wxdata]

At 1pm, angry looking clouds over the Capitol..

[srainhoutx]

EWX mentioned that the dryline would stall just E of the their area. Perhaps we can end the day before any weather issues play havoc on our 'outdoor' schedule for the day.

[wxdata]

EWX mentioned that the dryline would stall just E of the their area. Perhaps we can end the day before any weather issues play havoc on our 'outdoor' schedule for the day.

Spoilsport

[srainhoutx]

EWX mentioned that the dryline would stall just E of the their area. Perhaps we can end the day before any weather issues play havoc on our 'outdoor' schedule for the day.

Spoilsport

Meh, the 'switch' is about to be turned to the on position. Just let us finish the week.

For the Austin Area near Portastorm...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
125 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

TXZ173-191>194-102015-
BASTROP-HAYS-LEE-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
125 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HAYS...NORTHWESTERN
BASTROP...EXTREME WESTERN LEE...EASTERN TRAVIS AND SOUTHEASTERN
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST...

AT 121 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PFLUGERVILLE TO
BUDA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
ELGIN...
MANOR...
BERGSTROM...
COUPLAND...
WYLDWOOD...
RICES CROSSING...
DEL VALLE...
PILOT KNOB...
CREEDMOOR...
MAHA...

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if we will see any thunderstorms in Houston area later today?

[wxdata]

The 'giants' are disagreeing on the strength of the upper system early next week. ECMWF (beige) continues with a potent upper low moving across Texas, while the GFS (gray) indicates a much weaker upper trough.

[wxdata]

Updated Convective Outlook; SE TX continues in 'slight risk;' most action stays north and/or east.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... _2000.html

[Portastorm]

Yep, I watched that line of showers/storms blow up just west of downtown during my lunch break. Rained hard for just a bit and cleared the downtown core area and now heading east.

Nothing severe, thankfully. But dewpoints are now rapidly dropping as the dryline chugs eastward.

[wxdata]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19...

VALID 102005Z - 102130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19
CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN PART
OF WW 19 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE FOR
LARGE HAIL BUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. A NEW WW MAY
BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF EAST TX TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 19 LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

A BROKEN LINE OF DISCRETE STORMS ON A COLD FRONT FROM JUST SOUTHEAST
OF DALLAS SSWWD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO AROUND AUSTIN HAS BECOME
MORE INTENSE OVER THE LAST HOUR. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 70S F WEAKENING THE CAP AND ALLOWING FOR STORM COVERAGE TO
EXPAND. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
F...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ECNTRL TX SHOW SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS AND IT APPEARS LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT LARGELY DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM LAKE CHARLES AND 19Z ACARS SOUNDING
FROM HOUSTON BOTH SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE PREVENTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX
AND SW LA THIS AFTERNOON

[wxdata]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
207 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010


.NOW...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY 3PM. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG...PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

[wxdata]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Bastrop county; storms still moving eastward (albeit slowly.)

Emergency manager in Bastrop county reports pea to quarter size hail on Hiway 71

[wxdata]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010


323 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE EXIST MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 45 THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY NORTHEAST OF AN
AUSTONIO...PINEHURST... NEEDVILLE LINE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

[wxman57]

Storms to our W-NW appear to be "poofing-out" (technical met term). Looks like no rain for us today.