Re: February 2022
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:10 pm
What I’m really interested in is the week after next. With what seems to be an active STJ right now, I wouldn’t count anything out.
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We need this system to keep digging and have a very slow ejection. With blocking on each coasts (Atlantic, Pacific), I think it could happen.don wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:51 pm 18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.
A good sign for what? I don’t think anyone gets excited for ice. Is there something I’m missing?don wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:51 pm 18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.
There are people who get excited for ice. We know the damage it can cause but I for one still get excited for it. Just not nearly as much as I would for snow. What Don is saying is that the trends today have been good for more moisture and a colder solution which could (you never know) result in snow across our area if the models keep trending colder and have more qpf. How far south the trough/low dig is going to be the determining factor imo. We need it to dig deep into Mexico before ejecting.txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:12 pmA good sign for what? I don’t think anyone gets excited for ice. Is there something I’m missing?don wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:51 pm 18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.
A good sign for a potential storm, i wouldn't get too hung up on precip type yet in this range.txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:12 pmA good sign for what? I don’t think anyone gets excited for ice. Is there something I’m missing?don wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:51 pm 18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.
I wonder at some point if we can get a west Gulf low to form with this cold in place. That would really amp up the totals.don wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:27 pmA good sign for a potential storm, i wouldn't get too hung up on precip type yet in this range.txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:12 pmA good sign for what? I don’t think anyone gets excited for ice. Is there something I’m missing?don wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:51 pm 18Z GFS shows a potent winter storm for the northern half of the state with a second piece of energy producing ice in southeast Texas on the tail end of the system. The ICON shows a similar scenario FWIW.Expect more changes in the models, but when a model such as the GFS is trending towards a storm in this range after showing nothing before, is a good sign.Let's see what the 0Z runs show.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1Tuesday and Wednesday are transition days ahead of the next
approaching shortwave and not much of a cool down is expected
behind Monday`s front as temps still climb to the upper 60s to
lower 70s each day. By late Wednesday, a deep positively tilted
trough across the Western US will push east and into the Central
Plains. This trough will drag a stronger cold front through
Southeast Texas, but exact timing remains uncertain. The ECMWF is
warmer and faster and pushes the front through by early Thursday
morning. The GFS however, is slower and colder and has the front
arriving to the Brazos Valley by early Monday morning right as
surface temperatures are dropping to at or near freezing. Timing
and temperature of this front is crucial as it might determine
whether we get wintry precip or not. A lot still has to come
together, but we`re monitoring this mid week front closely for the
possibility of wintry mix.
This raises an eyebrow for me that HGX mentioned this being so early in the gamedon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:10 pm From HGX this afternoon
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1Tuesday and Wednesday are transition days ahead of the next
approaching shortwave and not much of a cool down is expected
behind Monday`s front as temps still climb to the upper 60s to
lower 70s each day. By late Wednesday, a deep positively tilted
trough across the Western US will push east and into the Central
Plains. This trough will drag a stronger cold front through
Southeast Texas, but exact timing remains uncertain. The ECMWF is
warmer and faster and pushes the front through by early Thursday
morning. The GFS however, is slower and colder and has the front
arriving to the Brazos Valley by early Monday morning right as
surface temperatures are dropping to at or near freezing. Timing
and temperature of this front is crucial as it might determine
whether we get wintry precip or not. A lot still has to come
together, but we`re monitoring this mid week front closely for the
possibility of wintry mix.
I’m not sure but it shows the low/trough digging down really far south and that would bring in more precipitation and cold air for our region.