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Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 9:31 am**

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invest_al942010.invest
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201008081403
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010080812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942010
AL, 94, 2010080718, , BEST, 0, 316N, 782W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 311N, 783W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080806, , BEST, 0, 307N, 785W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080812, , BEST, 0, 303N, 786W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 081405
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1405 UTC SUN AUG 8 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100808 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100808  1200   100809  0000   100809  1200   100810  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.3N  78.6W   30.4N  78.6W   30.8N  79.4W   31.1N  80.5W
BAMD    30.3N  78.6W   29.5N  78.7W   28.8N  79.7W   28.3N  81.2W
BAMM    30.3N  78.6W   29.9N  78.8W   29.6N  79.8W   29.3N  81.2W
LBAR    30.3N  78.6W   30.1N  78.6W   30.0N  79.1W   30.0N  80.1W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          32KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          29KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100810  1200   100811  1200   100812  1200   100813  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    31.3N  82.2W   31.6N  86.1W   31.7N  89.3W   31.5N  90.7W
BAMD    27.8N  83.1W   27.6N  87.3W   28.4N  91.3W   29.3N  93.9W
BAMM    28.8N  83.2W   28.2N  87.3W   28.3N  90.9W   29.0N  93.2W
LBAR    30.1N  81.4W   30.0N  84.6W   30.3N  87.5W   31.1N  89.9W
SHIP        33KTS          36KTS          39KTS          42KTS
DSHP        31KTS          34KTS          38KTS          40KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  30.3N LONCUR =  78.6W DIRCUR = 195DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  31.1N LONM12 =  78.3W DIRM12 = 196DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  32.4N LONM24 =  77.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$

Discuss away...

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 10:00 am**

12Z NAM...perhaps some rain for us late next week...

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 10:43 am**

Looks like it will ride the boundaries of the High Pressure. Rain would be nice as long as it does not strengthen appreciably.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 10:53 am**

000
NOUS42 KNHC 081500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 08 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-070 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST IN E. GULF NEAR 26.5N 83.5W AT 10/1800Z.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 11:35 am**

There is rotation visible from viewing the satellite images to the ESE of Jacksonville, FLA.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 11:43 am**

Could this one have any surprises for us like Alicia or Humberto - or will it just be TD or TS?

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 11:43 am**

I don't see anything circled for 94L at the NHC site. Hmmmmmmmm....... I saw the path and has it heading into GOM and Texas. If it develops, it would either be Danielle or Earl.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 11:57 am**

The good thing will be that we have radar to follow convection and any spin that may develop...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 11:59 am**

Ticka,
Alicia was a surprise because of the proximity to Galveston when it formed.
There wasn't a ton of time to prepare.

With this, I think we'd have the time.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:03 pm**

This is a good pre-plan day. Basically ready for any threat but its good to go over hurricane plans once again.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:05 pm**

I know my area could use some rain. Cracked everything. But I guess all this will depend on where the high pressure is sitting and how much time this blob sits over water. Will be interesting to see later models and discussions.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:11 pm**

12Z Canadian suggets Mobile, AL area...

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:50 pm**

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 1:19 pm**

Rip76 wrote:Ticka,
Alicia was a surprise because of the proximity to Galveston when it formed.
There wasn't a ton of time to prepare.

With this, I think we'd have the time.

Great point Alicia formed from a frontal boundary pretty quickly. We'll at least have a few days to watch 94L.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 1:23 pm**

Katdaddy wrote:This is a good pre-plan day. Basically ready for any threat but its good to go over hurricane plans once again.

Good idea.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 2:51 pm**

I know one thing - this heat ridge hasn't moved away from us - at 104 right now at the house. Is it forecasted to shift in the next couple of days - if not this tropical wave as it is right now will not come over us.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 3:22 pm**

This morning I was kind of paying attention to the news on KTRK 13 and the met said something about the high shifting towards the east allowing more gulf moisture to reach us by mid week...I don't know if he was referring to this blob or something else....

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 4:12 pm**

This system reminds me of TD 10 from about 3 yrs ago. Developed just before moving into SE LA/southern MS. If if does develop, then most likely a TD or weak TS when it moves ashore. Most likely far enough east of us so as we wouldn't get much, if any, rain.

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 4:43 pm**

18Z Tracks and Intensity...

08082010 18Z 94L track_early3.png

08082010 18Z 94L intensity_early3.png

Posted: **Sun Aug 08, 2010 7:24 pm**

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