TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico

[srainhoutx]

Good view from Key West long range radar...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Pulaski Shoal Light C-MAN (NW of Key West) reporting SW winds and rising pressures as the disturbance slowly pulls out to the W...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PLSF1

[srainhoutx]

Update from Key West...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
957 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
IR SATELLITE INTERROGATION SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF NAPLES WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST AS INDICATED BY THIS MORNINGS WATER
VAPOR LOOP. THE EARLY VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
LOCATED FROM MAINLAND MONROE SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA BAY...THE GULF
WATERS...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THE KBYX RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY TOWARD FLAMINGO...AND
A LARGE AREA OF STRATOFORM RAIN SOUTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND DRY
TORTUGAS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO MARCO ISLAND
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS CIRCLING AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HOLDING IN
THE HALF INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT THAT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY. THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING WAS INDICATING NEARLY 2.5 INCHES OF PWATS WHICH WAS VERIFIED
BY THE CUDJOE KEY PROFILER. THIS IS WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FROM NORMAL AND IN THE HIGH 90 PERCENTILE OF RECORD PWAT. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS
AND NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALL OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS WESTWARD...AND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE UPPER KEYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTS TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS IN STRONGER ACTIVITY. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS
PRESENTATION HAD VERY GOOD LOOK AT THE LOW IN THE GULF WITH AN
OBVIOUS CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE KEYS AND WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE.

[srainhoutx]

[wxman57]

All guidance still has a ridge over Texas and one over the Carolinas to NE Florida on Thursday. That leaves a clear avenue for 94L to track northward right into the mid Gulf Coast. Still nothing to indicate any Texas threat. That ridge would have to push well to the west of us, and I don't see that happening.

[srainhoutx]

For ticka1 and her travel plans...HPC QPF Update...

DAYS 2/3...

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PAST 24-36 HOURS REGARDING THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF. NEW
TWIST THIS MORNING IS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WNW OF THE KEYS.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NERN GULF AND MOVE INLAND
INVOF THE MS DELTA REGION. NAM...ECMWF AND GFS QPFS ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
RELATIONSHIP TO THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND EVENTUAL SURFACE
LOW TRACK. A CONSENSUS ENSEMBLE QPF APPROACH WAS IMPLEMENTED THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE 00Z/ECMWF...
ESPECIALLY WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEAREST THE TX/LA BORDER BY THE MIDDLE
OF DAY 3. MANUAL GRAPHICS CONCENTRATE THE LARGER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SRN AL/MS. GIVEN
THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE ENTIRE PATTERN IN THE GULF...POSTED
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 3...WITH EMPHASIS ON
THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM TALLAHASSEE TO BILOXI...WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM TPC/NHC FOR
LATEST INFO REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

[srainhoutx]

RECON for tomorrow has a lot of assets flying...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 10 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800Z, 12/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 11/1630Z
D. 27.3N 86.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 12/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0600, 0900, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
C. 12/0500Z
D. 28.7N 89.3W
E. 12/0530Z TO 12/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: NOAA IS PLANNING SEVERAL RESEARCH MISSONS
INTO THIS SYSTEM.
A. G-IV NOAA 49 TAKEOFF 11/1730Z 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
B. P-3 NOAA 42 TAKEOFF 11/2000Z 12,000 FT
C. P-3 NOAA 42 TAKEOFF 12/0800Z 12,000 FT

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS @ 36 Hours...

[srainhoutx]

@ 48 Hours...further W...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS 850mb vort chart suggests a weak system making 'landfall' near SW LA/SE TX (near the Sabine River)...

[srainhoutx]

Larger View

[Rip76]

Getting that "look"

[ticka1]

Getting that "look"

I agree..not quite a TD yet but 94L is getting there.....interesting the GFS brings it closer to texas on this run....

[AndrewLozeau]

Can you post a link with the latest models please?? Thanks

[ticka1]

Can you post a link with the latest models please?? Thanks

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_066l.gif

[srainhoutx]

Here is wxman57's page with many very helpful links...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/hurricane.html

[wxman57]

And my new favorite models page:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html

[Rip76]

This is a pretty cool site too.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29

[srainhoutx]

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[Scott747]

First guess on a possible NHC track based on 12z guidance (not 12z runs) would be around Grand Isle.

18z guidance won't be out for a few hours and if they were to upgrade on any recon data it would then be used. Might see a slight adjustment with the 12z GFS run being a tad further W but wouldn't expect much.

[biggerbyte]

Well, storm2k is down...

Edit to say never mind.. It is working again...

Strange..