Ed Mahmoud wrote:Yes, its the NAM. But this could be a 996.1 mb storm (below 1000 mb) and intensifying as it approches NOLA. I say a Cat 1 Danny scenario, possible. Danny was an MCS that pushed into the Gulf that developed a MCV, not exactly apples to apples, but once that non-tropical system becomes nearly purely tropical, it doesn't know it didn't start life as an African wave.
Invest 94L is quite large and has plenty to work with. Hurricane Danny was a small storm, but a huge rainmaker for Alabama. Doppler radar estimated up to 43 inches of rain fell from Danny, but it was over the water. Had it been over land, different story.
I notice these large blobs turn into small storms, like Danny.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA
STRAITS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx wrote:A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA
STRAITS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Folks, watch for the possiblity of the models shifting west. There are some indications that this may align further south and west than what is currently being suggested. At this point I'd put folks from the middle Texas coast, all the way east to the Florida panhandle until we get something to actually work with. LA is a good bet at this stage, regardless, but still..... Everything rides on a few factors that could come together in a few different ways over the next few days...
The migraine known as Invest 94L continues to wreak havoc with the lives of synoptic meteorologists along the Gulf Coast!
This disturbance was given up for dead by many on early Monday morning, what with its chaotic satellite appearance and lack of any organized center. Since an upper level low was involved, it was reasoned, no development was likely. The problem is the convection began to cluster far south of the very arbitrary location of its "declared center" east of Jacksonville FL (to the right of West Palm Beach FL would have been a more valid call). And a weakness attached to the impulse from FL to LA expanded and shifted westward. Over water temperatures of 90 - 94 deg F in the Gulf of Mexico.
Even though the cluster of numerical model track scenarios are into the New Orleans LA metro in the wee hours of Friday, the alteration of the initialized center and that drifting-westward discontinuity give me reason that the eventual path of this system will be more to the left than what is shown by the conventional models. Since a strong heat ridge will be over the Mid-South, better outflow over the hot SSTs give credence to a greater intensification rate. The bottom line is that this feature IS a danger not only to the energy district over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but also to the populous Houston/Galveston metro. If no further organization is apparent by Wednesday morning, then we can write off this risk. But if a defined convective circulation emerges over that cauldron to the southeast, better be prepared. At last check, Key West FL radar showed a definitive twist in the thunderstorm bands just to the west of Monroe County FL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA IS INCREASING AND GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH
UPPER-AIR...DOPPLER RADAR...AND SATELLITE INFORMATION...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Also, some are saying the flow in the gulf is north and northwest. That is just not the case. It is actually west and southwest. Watch this system follow that flow until, or if it gets picked up by the trough and moves more into a weakness in the ridge. It is possible that this misses the trough, the ridge builds back in and closes the door continuing the westward movement. Everyone should pay attention to this system, as conditions are becoming more favorable for development. Things could change quickly. Landfall is in no way certain right now. I stick by my own cone of uncertainty mentioned in an earlier post, but tonight I would split that down the middle and say s.e. Texas to s.w. LA. These are my thought, newbies, so official forecast is always going to come from the NHC, right or wrong.
As of now, the models still say east of here. We'll see how all the players come together. LA is still in the forefront, but I'm concerned about a westward shift from NOLA.
Up to 60%...RECON is scheduled for today as well...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...A LITTLE LESS THAN 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Okay I have a dilemna - I have vacation plans in Kinder LA for Friday and Saturday. I know no one knows exactly where and what 94L is going to do. Some of us can make great forecast. But I need to know by Wednesday afternoon if 94L will affect that area and if I need to cancel my reservation? I need to do this at least 48 hours in advance.
Area of disturbed weather in the SE Gulf of Mexico is becoming better organized.
Discussion:
Broad area of surface low pressure has formed over the SE Gulf of Mexico roughly 80 miles SW of Naples, FL based on surface observations from ships, buoys, and coastal land stations as well as radar data out of Tampa and Key West. Surface pressures have begun to slowly fall in the last 24 hours with the eastern Gulf NCDC buoy 42003 falling from 29.90in to 29.84in in the last 24 hours. Both radar and satellite data show nearly all of the thunderstorm activity on the southern side of the broad low pressure area as 10-15kts of northerly shear are affecting he system with dry air to its north. Recent radar data from Key West shows a decent convective band extending along most of the FL Keys and then westward into the Gulf for several hundred miles.
Track:
94L is in a very weak steering environment with high pressure over the southern US providing a weak W to WSW motion at the moment. Strong high pressure is over TX with a weakness in the ridge over the middle Gulf coast region. Global forecast models take 94L toward the WNW to NW toward the middle Gulf coast over the next 48-72 hours. The GFDL, HWRF, and CMC all show a general WNW to NW track toward SE LA while the GFS has just recently shown a more westward track toward SW LA in its latest 06Z run overnight. Models are in decent agreement and are fairly tightly clustered on the idea of 94L tracking toward the weakness over the middle Gulf coast states. Only concern I have at the moment is potential for center reformations to the S and W due to light northerly wind shear and the current displacement of the strong convective clusters…this can sometimes help the low level circulation reform closer to the intense convection. Such events in this same area include Katrina when she was in her formative stage with a very strong southern convective band which tended to pull the center SW with time after departing S FL.
Intensity:
As seems to be the case so far this season, model support for the development of 94L is minimal at best. The EURO shows little to no development along with a weak reflection in the GFS. The GFDL is most aggressive taking 94L toward a strong TS or weak hurricane near landfall and the HWRF shows a weak TS. Environmental factors are not ideal at the moment for intensification with weak northerly wind shear and dry air covering much of the northern and northeastern Gulf. However upper level winds are forecast to improve and 94L will be moving over very warm SST’s at a fairly slow rate. It is very possible that 94L does not really get going until closer to landfall as suggested by the GFDL. Since the surface low is fairly large, slow intensification is most likely until an inner core is able to form.
Local Weather:
Higher moisture over LA will be pushing west today and is already noted with scattered offshore T-storms this morning. PW values rise into the 2.0-2.3 inch range, however subsidence from the ridge aloft will continue to fight against widespread rainfall. With that said will likely see more coverage than yesterday along the local seabreeze and baybreeze.
Moisture really begins to ramp up Thursday into next weekend as 94L (or something more) approaches LA and mid level inverted trough crosses SE TX and finally helps to break down the subsidence of the ridge. For now will keep most impacts of potential Gulf tropical cyclone just east of our region except for a potential backing of the surface winds to NE on the west side of any circulation and possible higher seas. Combination of increased moisture from passage on the trough around Friday should result in fairly decent coverage of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday especially across our eastern counties. Or course any deviation of the Gulf system slightly westward would bring significant changes to SE TX forecasts.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Some models are shifting west. I expect the others may follow soon. This system is still moving westward in the west and wsw flow in the gulf. This trend will continue. The strength of both this system and the ridge determines landfall, and my
money is currently on a more westerly track than some have been speaking of. The end result could still be that the trough picks this up and lifts it northward. I would not count on that. This morning, I'd leave the middle Texas coast over to the Florida panhandle in the possibilties, buy like last night, I'm leaning toward a Rita like landfall, if not Ike. If the trough does grab this, then a Katrina like landfall. I am only speaking of landfall, not size or strength, folks. We are still too far out to say for sure where or when. Trying to would be from nothing more than long range model forecasting, which is about as accurate as guessing.
Sorry, Ticka, if you are looking for a pindown forecast today. No one can do that, but maybe tomorrow or tomorrow night. You would not be able to rely on it, otherwise.
Appreciate the reply biggerbyte. Will just have to wait and I called and I can cancel as late as Wednesday night late late. So that's the position I'm taking right now. Just don't want to lose money and have to pay for a vacation I won't get to enjoy.
Doppler radar estimated up to 43 inches of rain fell from Danny, but it was over the water. Had it been over land, different story. 
