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Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:57 pm
by srainhoutx
I believe it's time to separate all the long range speculation from the general SE TX discussion. This topic is specifically for Winter Long Range discussion and modeling beyond 7 days. All Long range posts in the December 2021 thread will be moved after today.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:01 pm
by Stratton20
srainhoutx thank you for making this separate thread
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:17 pm
by TexasBreeze
This will work! We should do separate meteorological season threads like s2k. It works well. DJF MAM JJA SON I believe are the months separations. Maybe keep the month by month threads specific to the Southeast Texas area and immediate surrounding areas like Beaumont. Just my 2 cents input.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:19 pm
by TexasBreeze
Re-reading the above Srain post it looks like this would already be the plan. Flip floppity 13 plus day models can be posted all day long in the new thread instead!
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:41 pm
by Stratton20
Day 9 on the 00z GFS, this is something positive in the model for once, the GFS is finally showing the possibility of a nice cool down around the 12th, lets hope this shows up in future runs
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 6:48 am
by Iceresistance
Now THIS is where we can post the model discussions without clogging up the Texas Forums! Thanks srainhoutx!
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:10 am
by Kingwood36
Hopefully we won't get yelled at here lol
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:25 am
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:41 pm
Day 9 on the 00z GFS, this is something positive in the model for once, the GFS is finally showing the possibility of a nice cool down around the 12th, lets hope this shows up in future runs
The Euro has this too!
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:38 am
by Stratton20
CPV17 even the 06 GFS was a little more aggressive with the cold air! This is a positive trend!
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:50 am
by Iceresistance
12z GFS trending stronger with the snow in Panhandle Texas & into Oklahoma & Kansas
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:18 am
by DoctorMu
Panhandle snow mid month on GFS. 2-3 frosts around here. First major blue norther. We'll see.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 1:27 am
by Stratton20
Model trends over the past 24 hours have been very positive! Lets hope this continues
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:29 am
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 04, 2021 1:27 am
Model trends over the past 24 hours have been very positive! Lets hope this continues
The GEFS is having a weaker signal now
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:19 am
by Kingwood36
Models are just having one hell of a time trying to figure out what to do
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:41 am
by Stratton20
Iceresistance of course it is, but im buying it, the operational euro and GFS runs have been consistent the past 36 hours
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 5:47 pm
by Iceresistance
18z GFS has a 1070 MB high over Greenland by Late-December
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:07 am
by Cpv17
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat Dec 04, 2021 5:47 pm
18z GFS has a 1070 MB high over Greenland by Late-December
1078 MB on the 0z GFS. Crazy.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:00 am
by Iceresistance
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:07 am
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat Dec 04, 2021 5:47 pm
18z GFS has a 1070 MB high over Greenland by Late-December
1078 MB on the 0z GFS. Crazy.
Good grief! That's near the record of 1080 MB!
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:16 am
by Kingwood36
It won't verify...9 times out of 10 they never do
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:35 am
by snowman65