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Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:44 am
by ticka1
Looks like the lull in the tropics is short-lived. 97L has formed.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:53 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 6:05 am
by ticka1
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 6:12 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:19 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:27 am
by redfish1
wow that looks close to home
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:41 am
by srainhoutx
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:48 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:29 am
by srainhoutx
Latest...
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:36 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:12 am
by srainhoutx
Code: Select all
934
WHXX01 KWBC 191407
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1407 UTC MON JUL 19 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100719 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100719 1200 100720 0000 100720 1200 100721 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 65.0W 20.2N 68.6W 21.3N 72.5W 22.4N 75.7W
BAMD 19.2N 65.0W 19.8N 66.8W 20.3N 68.6W 20.7N 70.3W
BAMM 19.2N 65.0W 19.9N 67.4W 20.3N 69.8W 20.7N 72.1W
LBAR 19.2N 65.0W 20.1N 67.7W 20.8N 70.7W 21.5N 73.6W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100721 1200 100722 1200 100723 1200 100724 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.0N 78.9W 24.1N 85.4W 25.6N 91.4W 27.7N 96.1W
BAMD 20.8N 71.9W 21.2N 74.9W 21.9N 78.1W 23.0N 81.8W
BAMM 20.6N 74.4W 20.2N 78.8W 20.4N 82.6W 21.2N 85.9W
LBAR 22.1N 76.6W 23.2N 82.8W 24.7N 88.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS
DSHP 42KTS 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 61.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 58.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:19 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:31 am
by srainhoutx
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
637 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...IN THIS PROCESS GRADUALLY DISPLACING A TUTT
LOW THAT MEANDERS TO THE NORTH. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY
DEEP...REFLECTING AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
FEATURE...IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ AND PERTURBATIONS IN THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...FAVORS/SUSTAINS A WET/MOIST PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WITH PWS OF 50-70MM DOMINATING
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN ALOFT IS TO CHANGE...THE MOISTURE
IS TO PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TUTT...IN THE
FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH...IS TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER THIS WEEK. CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST OF THE INBOUND TUTT IS TO
PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS. MODELS
SEEM TO COINCIDE THAT MOST ACTIVE/INTENSE CONVECTION IS TO
CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
INTENSE/ACTIVE PATTERN DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY.
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
INDICATES THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE ARE TO TRANSITION
TO A WEAK CONVERGENT/NEUTRAL PATTERN...WHICH IS TO LAST FOR TEN
DAYS...AND TRANSITIONING AGAIN TO A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BY THE
FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST.
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:31 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:32 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:42 am
by srainhoutx
NOUS42 KNHC 191300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 19 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-049
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 21/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 22/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:51 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:57 am
by Hardcoreweather
Dr Rick Knabb on TWC just said that no major canes will strike the USA this week.
How can you say something like that on the air ?
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:31 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 12:46 pm
by Hardcoreweather
2pm
. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
