Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

[clc]

Based on IR and MIMIC if the LLC is under the convection then it looks like this storm could be taking a western turn. Tomm morning sat should be very telling.

Agreed, looks like it has taken a right turn.

[Scott747]

The turn to the W that everyone is talking about, or in this case a movement to the WNW has been and continues to be in the forecast.

It was the earlier relocation (first recon coordinates) of the center that started the first adjustment in track.

The present motion and impending turn to the WNW isn't what cause the change in the longer term track with the latest advisory. Based on the disco the idea is that the H won't extend as far to the W as we initially thought and they don't think it will build back in enough to keep it on a more westward motion.

No doubt it could change but that's where we are at this evening.

[Mr. T]

The turn to the W that everyone is talking about, or in this case a movement to the WNW has been and continues to be in the forecast.

It was the earlier relocation (first recon coordinates) of the center that started the first adjustment in track.

The present motion and impending turn to the WNW isn't what cause the change in the longer term track with the latest advisory. Based on the disco the idea is that the H won't extend as far to the W as we initially thought and they don't think it will build back in enough to keep it on a more westward motion.

No doubt it could change but that's where we are at this evening.

Yeah. I'm definitely suprised this evening. The models have actually (as it seems right now) overdone heights across the SE in the short range... I thought this was just going to keep trending west like we saw with Alex, but I suppose not

If this is indeed headed for LA, enjoy your sheared thunderstorms!

Actually, moisture from Bonnie would spread westward through next week, so we'd some good rains out of it anyway...

[Ptarmigan]

I notice the cone has shifted eastwards. It is early too tell where it will make landfall. I would not be surprised if the cone shifts east or west.

[biggerbyte]

I'm surprised too. Goes to show you just never know. Things change daily, and is the changes at the end of a storms life that make the difference. Even still, we did say LA or Texas, so... It just looked like western portions of LA for so long.

[biggerbyte]

Even still, I am not giving up on little Bonnie. Until she has called someplace home...
The ridge is still the key, and there is still some uncertainty. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on our earlier thinking.

[wxdata]

WTNT33 KNHC 230558
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 77.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF NASSAU
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF BONNIE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE
ON STANIEL CAY IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING
TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

[Mr. T]

Recon is having a tough time finding a defined LLC

The small, but deep area of convection you see on IR is not associated with any defined center. If Bonnie doesn't hurry up and try to consolidate, this could be a TD or even an open wave later on today...

[Mr. T]

THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS FEW WEST
OR NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FOUND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH. FOR NOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BONNIE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[biggerbyte]

The storms so far this year have had everyone stumped. Rollercoaster ride does not even explain it. We'll, this is the stubborn one, and she/it ain't dead yet. We'll see what happens. I give up on trying to predict anything with this one. I do feel like we should continue to watch it for a while longer.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 230859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BONNIE
HAS FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF
34 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS FEW WEST
OR NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FOUND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH. FOR NOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BONNIE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS BONNIE PASSED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AN OBSERVING SITE ON STANIEL CAY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 KT.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT BONNIE IS MOVING FASTER AND HAS TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16. BONNIE
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT DURING FIRST 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
GUIDANCE IS NOTICEABLY FASTER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART FROM THE MORE
WESTWARD INITIAL LOCATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS
REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

THE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF BONNIE IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR
STRENGTHENING. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF
BONNIE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOWS LITTLE...
IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 24.1N 78.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 25.0N 81.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 26.2N 84.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 27.6N 86.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 28.8N 89.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 31.5N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA

[srainhoutx]

Appears we still a TS as RECON was able to find a closed circulation...looks very disorganized at this time though...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 11:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 11:09:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°49'N 79°20'W (24.8167N 79.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 72 miles (115 km) to the ESE (106°) from Key Largo, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,499m (4,918ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 70° at 34kts (From the ENE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 9:51:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the E (88°) from the flight level center

[ticka1]

Bonnie is going to race across the GOM - that will be another factor against her getting organized and stronger too.

Season 2010 has been eventful for Alex, TD2 and TS Bonnie. Wish I could make this storm change direction and go away from the oil slick area but I don't think I have those powers.

Until this system has made landfall - no one is in the clear but the trend is now showing LA as the path of TS Bonnie. Let's see how much interaction she has with landfall in South Florida or the Keyes and it that weakens her any....

[ticka1]

Friday morning email from Jeff Lindner:

Tropical Storm heading for southern FL and the Gulf of Mexico



At 400am a tropical storm watch is issued for the US Gulf coast from Destin, FL to Morgan City, LA including Lake Pontchartrain.



A Tropical storm warning remains in effect for southern FL and the FL Keys.



Discussion:



Radar fixes from Miami, Key West, and last recon. aircraft place the ill defined center of Bonnie about 50 miles E of Key Largo, FL. Miami radar shows extensive clustering of deep convection over the N and NW sides of the center, but little to no activity over the center and to the S and E suggesting SSE wind shear is affecting the system. Aircraft did have a very hard time finding a closed low level center and westerly winds, but in the end did find enough to continue to classify Bonnie as a tropical cyclone. Max flight level wind was 41kts in the NE quad and surface pressure from a dropsonde was 1008mb or up 2mb from yesterday….Bonnie is not intensifying!



Track:



Bonnie is racing WNW at 18-20mph and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed. On this track the system will cross S FL/FL keys this morning and enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Deep layer ridge over the US Mid Atlantic region will build SSW into the SE US over the next 24 hours and Bonnie will ride the southern and southwestern edge of this ridge until its second US landfall along the Gulf coast. Global forecast models are in good agreement on a track toward the LA coast with the HWRF and GFDL on the eastern side of a tight guidance cluster and the CMC and GFS on the western side. Guidance clustering is fairly tight over SE LA and this is yielding an above average confidence forecast track. Additionally, the steering flow is well established and fairly straightforward and there has been little shift in guidance since yesterday morning. On this track Bonnie will reach the SE LA coast late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Bonnie will also affect the entire oil spill region and pass very near the DWH well site.



Intensity:



Bonnie is considered a midget tropical cyclone with a very small wind field. Environment conditions ahead of the system are not overly favorable for development and in fact are somewhat hostile. The large upper low now centered over the central Gulf of Mexico will move westward toward S TX, but will continue to provide southerly shear over the system. Additionally dry air is affecting the system on its western flank and it is moving very quickly which can worsen upper level shearing aspects. None of the major models deepen Bonnie much expect for the SHIPS and LGEM models which take Bonnie toward a strong tropical storm. Given the above mentioned factors Bonnie will likely remain a weak to moderate TS to its Gulf coast landfall. One thing to keep in mind however is that small TC’s can spin up and down very quickly when/if convection develops directly over their small low level centers…this may be something to watch in the Gulf, but is nearly impossible to forecast.



Impacts:



Bonnie is a small tropical system with impacts near and mainly a short distance east of the center. The wind field will expand slightly in the Gulf of Mexico up to about 70-80 mile outward from the center mainly to the NE. On the current track with a landfall near the mouth of the MS River tropical storm conditions will be confined to SE LA including metro New Orleans and the MS coast. Rainfall of 3-6 inches will be possible along and just to the east of the center with isolated amounts of 6-10” possible. Storm surge flooding in this very prone surge section of the Gulf coast will be on the order of 2-5 feet with possibly 6 feet in SW MS and 3-4 feet within Lake Pontchartrain. The SE LA hurricane protection system (levees) should not have any problems with the forecasted surge levels.



Local Impacts:



Moisture has greatly decreased from yesterday under strong subsidence on the western edge of the central Gulf upper low. This upper low will move into S TX late Saturday and deep tropical moisture on the east side of this feature will surge into SE TX with greatly increasing rain chances Sunday-Tuesday. Impacts from Bonnie will be minimal to none on our local weather as the small system will go inland far enough to our east to not impact our weather. Only changes will be to back surface winds out of the ENE starting Sunday to account for the low level center moving across LA. Rainfall totals Sunday-Tuesday will average 2-4” across the area with July possibly becoming one of the wettest on record after nearly daily rains for the past several weeks all starting with Alex back in late June.



Oil Spill Impacts:



Bonnie will pass directly over both the oil spill region and very near the DWH well site. Sustained tropical storm conditions will affect much of the oil spill region. Seas are forecast to build into the 6-8ft range on Saturday and 9-14 ft Saturday night and Sunday. Moderate to large swells and strong winds near and to the east of the center will push large amounts of oil landward an onto the coast from SE LA to the FL panhandle. Current protection measures in place to prevent oil from reaches marshes and beaches will likely be overtopped and breached given the expected wave actions that can result in ineffective booming. Strom surge values as noted above will push oil deeper into marshes and sensitive nesting areas. Additionally, strong easterly flow north of the center will push some of the oil plumes westward along the Gulf coast toward the central LA coast. Current plume modeling suggest oil may reach as far west as the lower Atchafalaya Bay basin by late this weekend. It should be stated that there is high uncertainty on how a tropical system will affect the oil and what exactly the impacts will be.

[srainhoutx]

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...CENTER OF BONNIE OVER BISCAYNE BAY...MOST OF THE WEATHER ALREADY
INLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 80.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN
FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM EDT...1500
UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3
WEST. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE BONNIE IS
CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN ELEVATED AUTOMATIC
STATION AT FOWEY ROCKS OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA JUST
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52
MPH...85 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[SusieinLP]

Just from looking at the water vapor satelite, it looks like that ULL is pulling Bonnie more towards the north...perhaps missing Louisiana and moving towards Alabama or the extreme west FL Panhandle?

[biggerbyte]

Song remains the same. The ridge is in control. I would have thought it would have built further west. Bonnie was/is a fighter with all of the obstacles she has faced over the days. NOLA looks to be where she dies, if not before she gets there. This is just another one of those examples of what we all say every hurricane season. We can never take any forecast for granted. What if this were a big storm forecasted to go someplace else, but in the last day or two things change and send it to Houston. The models are of no help with that at all, and that sort of thing happens frequently.

Prepare! Prepare! Prepare!

Now we wait for the next one.

[TxMomof2]

Thanks to everyone who has put in all the work on Bonnie (and all the other storms). I usually lurk and just try to stay informed, but I just thought I would let you all know that I really do appreciate having this forum to keep me up on what's happening with these storms.

I do love stormy weather, so I usually get a bit excited when they head our way. However, I can remember saying after Ike (and being without power for 2 weeks) that I hoped we didn't have another hurricane for a long time to come. The excitement wears off pretty quickly in this summer heat when you don't have a/c. lol.

[srainhoutx]

Bonnie is still kicking overland nearing the Everglades...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 16:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 15:47:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°31'N 80°30'W (25.5167N 80.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 25 miles (41 km) to the SW (223°) from Miami, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 765m (2,510ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 122° at 40kts (From the ESE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 767m (2,516ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 16:01:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 16:01:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

[ronyan]

I hope Bonnie doesn't strengthen much in the gulf. It looks to be headed straight for NOLA according to the NHC's track. It will stir up some oil no doubt.