i think we have had one good storm of 1+" since the freeze here in Cypress (A strong night time thunderstorm back in March). The forecast have continuously called out for areas north of I10 to get 1-2" of rain for a couple months now with each system and its continued to not provide here in Cypress.
April 2021
12z GFS has trended substantially wetter for southeast Texas,especially for the central and coastal counties.Looks to be two convergence zones setting up with the upper level low, one in central Texas, and another one across coastal Texas.Lets see if the trends continue...
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That’s great news!! And south of I-10 too!don wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:55 am 12z GFS has trended substantially wetter for southeast Texas,especially for the central and coastal counties.Looks to be two convergence zones setting up with the upper level low, one in central Texas, and another one across coastal Texas.Lets see if the trends continue...
Not holding my breath...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
12z EURO qpf amounts for this weeks system, lets hope these maps verify as the state could REALLY use the rain.
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lol I'm just trying to catch my breath. The Dewpoint rose to 71°F this afternoon and humidity is out of control. Just arrived home and put on a tank top and cranked up the ceiling fan in the home office. YUCK!
Guess I better get used to it until October.
Even DPs in the low 60s with a breeze the last few days was tolerable.
My 70% chance of “Heavy Rain” for tomorrow has been lowered to 50%.
Why am I not surprised...
Why am I not surprised...
18z HRRR doesn't look promising for tomorrow. Cap looks to come into play....again.
I had "Heavy Rain" forecasted this morning, now down to "Chance Storms" at 50%, as well jasons2k.
I had "Heavy Rain" forecasted this morning, now down to "Chance Storms" at 50%, as well jasons2k.
18z GFS is real nice!
Forecast models often change.
Wow, that storm headed towards San Antonio is a beast! 3 to 4 inch diameter hail with a hook signature on the southern side. Yikes 
And a similar one in beast mode barreling through the metroplex. No joke on yikes
Give me the rain, hold the baseball sized hail and tornadoes.
Give me the rain, hold the baseball sized hail and tornadoes.
With this type of setup over the next few days someone is going to get a lot of rain. Pinpointing exact locations right now will be impossible. Looks like everyone in SETX is in play right now.
Seems like the Hill Country has been catching bad night time severe weather a lot lately.
Ok time to start watching this more carefully as some models are showing some hefty rainfall totals.GFS is showing up to a foot of rain within the next 72 hours for some locations.With multiple rounds of heavy rain over the weekend, and even with the drought situation a flash flood watch may be needed if the trends continue.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms out ahead of the front
working in from the southwest. The cold front runs from around Grand
Prairie to Llano to close to Laredo at 5 am and sagging very slowly
southeastward. The front should move into the CWA this afternoon and
stall. The front then wobbles around tonight and could sag to the
coast but at this point looks it will stall just inland. Rain
chances will be increasing through the afternoon as showers become
more common and then as a lead shortwave arrives expect some garden
variety thunderstorms to become a bit more common tonight and
Friday. Some potential for brief heavy downpours after midnight and
through the day Friday with slow moving storms. Profiles aloft
should be wet but warm and so instability will be lacking. Much of
the northern area will be getting rainfall today then early Friday
morning central and south. This should do wonders for taking a chunk
out of the drought. Temperatures today and Friday will be cooler
with the cloud cover and rain but still warm nights.
Yesterday record high minimums at College Station and
Intercontinental beating 1970 and 1994 respectively.
45
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...
Sat should be starting off rather active with the ongoing passage
of a potent upper level shortwave. Progs of a diffluent jet struc-
ture aloft along with PWs ranging from 1.5-1.9 inches are hinting
at some decent rainfall amounts across much of SE TX for Sat with
training storms. We`ll get a brief break from these rains by late
Sat afternoon/evening as the disturbance moves off to the NE, but
widespread showers/thunderstorms should return Sat night/Sun morn-
ing as the main upper trof/low moves in from the west. Due to the
proximity of this system (and the strong dynamics associated with
it), strong/possibly severe thunderstorms could accompany all the
widespread rainfall. And because this might be a possible second
bout of moderate/heavy rains, we`ll need to keep an eye on flash
flood and/or flood issues for this time frame. Stay tuned!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms out ahead of the front
working in from the southwest. The cold front runs from around Grand
Prairie to Llano to close to Laredo at 5 am and sagging very slowly
southeastward. The front should move into the CWA this afternoon and
stall. The front then wobbles around tonight and could sag to the
coast but at this point looks it will stall just inland. Rain
chances will be increasing through the afternoon as showers become
more common and then as a lead shortwave arrives expect some garden
variety thunderstorms to become a bit more common tonight and
Friday. Some potential for brief heavy downpours after midnight and
through the day Friday with slow moving storms. Profiles aloft
should be wet but warm and so instability will be lacking. Much of
the northern area will be getting rainfall today then early Friday
morning central and south. This should do wonders for taking a chunk
out of the drought. Temperatures today and Friday will be cooler
with the cloud cover and rain but still warm nights.
Yesterday record high minimums at College Station and
Intercontinental beating 1970 and 1994 respectively.
45
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...
Sat should be starting off rather active with the ongoing passage
of a potent upper level shortwave. Progs of a diffluent jet struc-
ture aloft along with PWs ranging from 1.5-1.9 inches are hinting
at some decent rainfall amounts across much of SE TX for Sat with
training storms. We`ll get a brief break from these rains by late
Sat afternoon/evening as the disturbance moves off to the NE, but
widespread showers/thunderstorms should return Sat night/Sun morn-
ing as the main upper trof/low moves in from the west. Due to the
proximity of this system (and the strong dynamics associated with
it), strong/possibly severe thunderstorms could accompany all the
widespread rainfall. And because this might be a possible second
bout of moderate/heavy rains, we`ll need to keep an eye on flash
flood and/or flood issues for this time frame. Stay tuned!
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Bring it! We need it! Don’t bust on us now!
HRRR is picking up on the heavy rainfall tomorrow, and shows a slow moving MCS over southeast Texas tomorrow morning. And another impulse in the afternoon. Stay weather aware.
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