This topic is like a poll question to see what the members think about if the experts like the folks at CSU,TSR,NOAA,Accuweather (JB) and other private firms will go down or leave the numbers the same as the June updates.
IMO,after seeing what is going on in the Atlantic so far in the season with the formation of Alex and afterwards, I can see them leaving the numbers the same or maybe going down a little bit from the average of 18 between all of them.
What will the experts do in their August updates?
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TexasMetBlake
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I believe they won't have any choice but to go down on their numbers. Looking back at several years (2005, 1933, 1995), by the end of July, we had already seen 4 to 5 storms in each of those VERY busy season. For an apocalyptic season, its been pretty lackluster thus far. We've had one strong June hurricane. Okay. We've also had several promising invests that have done nothing. What's that tell you? Yes the waters are warm, but it's only a piece of the puzzle. The upper levels just are not completely ripe for an overly active season I don't think. At least not yet. Another clue is the busy E. Pac (which I realize has died down now). But when you have storm after storm after storm in the E. Pac, that normally means a quiet Atlanitc.
For NOAA to call for up to 23 storms is a bit irresponsible, IMO. It leads to media sensationalism, higher prices at the pump as commodities tighten down and frankly it means nothing to the average citizen. Ask the people in south Florida if the 1992 hurricane season was active (which it wasn't btw--very quiet) and the overwhelming response would be yes. Second, is it even a "prediction" to call for 14-23 storms? Where's the skill? 19-23 would be a good range. But come on. With approximately 18 weeks left until the end of the hurricane season, we'd have to average more than one storm per week starting now to make it to 23. IMO, that is NOT going to happen--especially with no strong waves on the horizon.
With a La Nina shaping up in the Pacific, there is no doubt that things won't ramp up in the Atlantic sometime soon. It's also very alarming to me to look at the upper-level pattern and realize that this is the perfect setup for a direct hit by a very powerful hurricane. The high placed over the southeast and the autumn fronts assaulting the high causing it to temporarily break down could mean very bad news for the Texas coast...not once, but several times. We've already had 2 systems move towards the western gulf. Intuitively it makes sense that we'll have a few more threats before this year draws to a close.
My personal forecast:
16 storms
8 hurricanes
4 major
For NOAA to call for up to 23 storms is a bit irresponsible, IMO. It leads to media sensationalism, higher prices at the pump as commodities tighten down and frankly it means nothing to the average citizen. Ask the people in south Florida if the 1992 hurricane season was active (which it wasn't btw--very quiet) and the overwhelming response would be yes. Second, is it even a "prediction" to call for 14-23 storms? Where's the skill? 19-23 would be a good range. But come on. With approximately 18 weeks left until the end of the hurricane season, we'd have to average more than one storm per week starting now to make it to 23. IMO, that is NOT going to happen--especially with no strong waves on the horizon.
With a La Nina shaping up in the Pacific, there is no doubt that things won't ramp up in the Atlantic sometime soon. It's also very alarming to me to look at the upper-level pattern and realize that this is the perfect setup for a direct hit by a very powerful hurricane. The high placed over the southeast and the autumn fronts assaulting the high causing it to temporarily break down could mean very bad news for the Texas coast...not once, but several times. We've already had 2 systems move towards the western gulf. Intuitively it makes sense that we'll have a few more threats before this year draws to a close.
My personal forecast:
16 storms
8 hurricanes
4 major
I have to agree too I think if we were going to have a ballistic season - we would of already had 3-5 storms. We have had two and both in the GOM near Mexico.
I think the number will be notched down a couple. Will see what July has to over but the long rang months aren't latching on to much in the next two weeks. But like I have always said - all it takes is one to make a bad season.
I think the number will be notched down a couple. Will see what July has to over but the long rang months aren't latching on to much in the next two weeks. But like I have always said - all it takes is one to make a bad season.
Just because we don't have 4 named storms by the end of July mean little to me. I think 2010 could have at least 18 storms this season. Look at 1969, we had 18/11/5 and it started in July! 1969 produced Camille, one of the most intense hurricane on record and to make landfall in the Atlantic Basin and in America.
Some of the most active seasons started late, like 1950, 1999, 2000, and 2004.
Some of the most active seasons started late, like 1950, 1999, 2000, and 2004.
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wxman57
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NOAA did not call for "up to 23 named storms". Their analog years suggested 18.5 named storms. But NOAA doesn't want to use that single number so they employ a range based on the standard deviation. The 14-23 named storms extends a little over 1 standard deviation from the forecast such that it encompasses 70% of the probability. So, NOAA is saying that there is a 70% chance that the number of named storms will fall between 14 and 23. They're not forecasting 14 and they're not forecasting 23. They could just as easily have used an 80 or 90% range and said from 9-28 named storms, but they wouldn't be forecasting up to 28 named storms, they'd still be forecasting 18.5.
See: http://www.robertniles.com/stats/stdev.shtml
With a forecast of 18 named storms, I'd expect to see from 1-3 named storms before August 1st. For August, 5-7 named storms. September - 6-8 named storms. Another 2-3 in October and a storm in November. That would be about 18. No reason to make any adjustment downward yet.
However, I do think that there will be a significantly higher risk of a major hurricane impact across the Caribbean and on the U.S. coast this year. So it really won't matter if the end of season total is 15, 16, 17 or 18. Could be a very devastating season.
See: http://www.robertniles.com/stats/stdev.shtml
With a forecast of 18 named storms, I'd expect to see from 1-3 named storms before August 1st. For August, 5-7 named storms. September - 6-8 named storms. Another 2-3 in October and a storm in November. That would be about 18. No reason to make any adjustment downward yet.
However, I do think that there will be a significantly higher risk of a major hurricane impact across the Caribbean and on the U.S. coast this year. So it really won't matter if the end of season total is 15, 16, 17 or 18. Could be a very devastating season.