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I think 1" but don't quote me on that let someone else answer loltxsnowmaker wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:56 pm How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?
An anti-Arctite.Benjamin Yakul wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:37 pm The Houston nws office has always been anti cold and anti frozen precip. They wont admit to it until it actually happens. Watch,, a winter storm watch will be needed and they will hold,hold,hold, off until the very last possible second.
Yes lawd! Plz give all of se texas this one before hell sets in🥵MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:59 pm The hell season of late Spring and Summer isn't too far around the corner. They can take their anti-American, anti-Winter jive and go sit this one out.
Oh, boy.txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:56 pm How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?
That's not how they work at all. I know a few of the forecasters there well. They'll always steer on the side of caution when it comes to hard freezes/mix precip down this way unless it's less than 3 days out with high confidence. Always best to be conservative when making those type of forecast down here along the coast, especially with models handling this setup very poorly, as is such with a shallow arctic airmass.Benjamin Yakul wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:37 pm The Houston nws office has always been anti cold and anti frozen precip. They wont admit to it until it actually happens. Watch,, a winter storm watch will be needed and they will hold,hold,hold, off until the very last possible second.
Excellent. Thanks for sharing!DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:02 pmOh, boy.txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:56 pm How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?
Be careful with that map. That wouldn't be snow as that indicates. GFS shows a warm nose from 900 to ~700mb during the passage of that shortwave on Monday. Which any precip falling would be sleet/freezing rain as there's a shallow layer below freezing at the surface.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:02 pmOh, boy.txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:56 pm How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?
Blake said the air looks to be deeper than expected. and he is a pro met at khou. the shortwave's upper level cold air will cool the air column and minimize ice.Belmer wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:14 pmBe careful with that map. That wouldn't be snow as that indicates. GFS shows a warm nose from 900 to ~700mb during the passage of that shortwave on Monday. Which any precip falling would be sleet/freezing rain as there's a shallow layer below freezing at the surface.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:02 pmOh, boy.txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:56 pm How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday?
18z Feb 15.png
00z Feb 16.png
That's not true at all...the NWS is always cautious when it comes to winter precip events. They even mention the possibility of watch's or warnings next week in their discussion this afternoon.They will become more bullish once we get within 72 hours of the event. That's pretty much always how they handle winter storms around here. For example in the 2018 sleet storm they never even issued winter storm watches, and only issued a winter storm warning/advisories for most of the area the day before the storm.biggerbyte wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:20 pm NWS, Houston is just not buying into any of this "major weather event". Yes some chilly temps with a slight chance of non frozen precip. We are viewing all of these impressive looking models in this forum, but they have to be looking at something different that says not happening.
Hell, 3-4 days is probably pushing it lol I can’t even trust most models right now 12 hours out.Belmer wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:05 pmThat's not how they work at all. I know a few of the forecasters there well. They'll always steer on the side of caution when it comes to hard freezes/mix precip down this way unless it's less than 3 days out with high confidence. Always best to be conservative when making those type of forecast down here along the coast, especially with models handling this setup very poorly, as is such with a shallow arctic airmass.Benjamin Yakul wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:37 pm The Houston nws office has always been anti cold and anti frozen precip. They wont admit to it until it actually happens. Watch,, a winter storm watch will be needed and they will hold,hold,hold, off until the very last possible second.
Also... you sure do have a lot of accounts you login from.
IMO, chances look relatively high (>60%) for some form of winter precip on President's Day. However, likely mainly in the form of sleet/freezing rain. Snow would be much nicer though. With that said, confidence looks high there will be a pretty deep snowpack building to our north and the pattern still looks pretty volatile through the rest of the month so anymore shots of cold air won't be as modified. Though I don't put much stock into what is going on beyond 3-4 days right now.
Guptamaja wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:22 pmBlake said the air looks to be deeper than expected. and he is a pro met at khou. the shortwave's upper level cold air will cool the air column and minimize ice.Belmer wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:14 pmBe careful with that map. That wouldn't be snow as that indicates. GFS shows a warm nose from 900 to ~700mb during the passage of that shortwave on Monday. Which any precip falling would be sleet/freezing rain as there's a shallow layer below freezing at the surface.
18z Feb 15.png
00z Feb 16.png
