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jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:24 pm Wouldn't it be funny, if, after all this, it was the Thursday system that finally gave us the convective banding of snow we all hoped for on Sunday night?

You took the words out of my mouth.

tsb2107 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:13 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:04 pm 0z HRRR brings heavy ice to MoCo and NW Harris.

THEN. .... snow Thursday morning thru lunch including Harris proper

Temps won’t warm much at all if that precip verifies

Can you post model?

don wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:22 pm Yep Ive noticed also models are coming in more potent with Thursdays system,maybe another decent round of snow?Good news is since this system is coming with the upper level trough the setup looks like it could be maybe an all snow event,as the 540 line is much further to the south.

How much snow is that showing for Harris County?

Dadgum nam runs shows a lot of ice

Razor close. A few miles there will make a difference.

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:44 pm Dadgum nam runs shows a lot of ice

For who?

The latest HRRR run highlights the uncertainty with respect to the rain/freezing rain line across the region with the W/NW half of Harris County receiving freezing rain while the E/SE half of the county receives rain. Unfortunately, all of the latest mesoscale models depict some type of freezing rain/sleet near or over the Metro area at this time.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:24 pm Wouldn't it be funny, if, after all this, it was the Thursday system that finally gave us the convective banding of snow we all hoped for on Sunday night?

I wouldn’t be surprised.

Temp here has risen just a tick. Like I said, it's gonna be close.

One of the few times I am grateful to be in a "donut" of activity...

In response to some friends on S2K:

I'm glad some of y'all are enjoying the snow. I hope we get some on Thursday as a parting shot. It's looking a little better on the HRRR.

In the meantime, I am closely watching temperature trends for the ice storm about to impact SE and East Texas. It's going to be just epic for some folks to the North and especially NE of here. We are right on the edge. A serious demarcation between ice and rain, and thus, the accumulation totals. The HRRR keeps going back and forth between a little ice nuisance and the ice storm apocalypse for me in southern Montgomery County, so it's just waiting and watching the temperature/dew point spread until it starts falling down over here.

FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.

don wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:05 pm FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.

My dew point is 22° here temp is 29°.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:04 pm

don wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:05 pm FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.

My dew point is 22° here temp is 29°.

22 here too (was at 19 a couple hours ago) and temp at 32.

Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.

Andrew wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:40 pm Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.

Doing good. Making al pastor tacos in the backyard. Electricity is on, but I'll take no chances to miss a warm meal once the power goes out again

The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen too.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:21 am The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen.

Spring here...does this mean a small window for freezing rain for the northern parts of the county?

tsb2107 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:28 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:21 am The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen.

Spring here...does this mean a small window for freezing rain for the northern parts of the county?

If you mean Harris county, it depends on how far east or west you are. The line is generally along 59, but with the low where it is, it has a steep arc to it.