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Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:23 pm
by jasons2k
TXWeatherMan wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:16 pm Yeah I’m not liking how the HRRR looks.
Classic ice storm on the HRRR for my location.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:23 pm
by TXWeatherMan
Any chance this system has sleet in it or is it looking like all freezing rain?

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:24 pm
by TXWeatherMan
jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:23 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:16 pm Yeah I’m not liking how the HRRR looks.
Classic ice storm on the HRRR for my location.
Me too. I’m about 30 mins to your northwest

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:28 pm
by jasons2k
TXWeatherMan wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:23 pm Any chance this system has sleet in it or is it looking like all freezing rain?
Not really. That's a very stout warm nose and the freezing layer is very shallow.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:46 pm
by snowman65
I hope that mess passes us up...GOAWAY...

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:57 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:23 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:16 pm Yeah I’m not liking how the HRRR looks.
Classic ice storm on the HRRR for my location.
That’s a hell of a warm nose. Very distinct.

I know some of y’all are tired of this, but I could go for another two weeks before I turn the thermostat back over.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:31 pm
by Cpv17
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:57 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:23 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:16 pm Yeah I’m not liking how the HRRR looks.
Classic ice storm on the HRRR for my location.
That’s a hell of a warm nose. Very distinct.

I know some of y’all are tired of this, but I could go for another two weeks before I turn the thermostat back over.
I want single digits and teens and a foot of snow for a few weeks if I’m being completely honest lol

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:40 pm
by jasons2k
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:31 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:57 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:23 pm

Classic ice storm on the HRRR for my location.
That’s a hell of a warm nose. Very distinct.

I know some of y’all are tired of this, but I could go for another two weeks before I turn the thermostat back over.
I want single digits and teens and a foot of snow for a few weeks if I’m being completely honest lol
That’s what trips to the mountains and places like Montana are for.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:53 pm
by Cpv17
jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:40 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:31 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:57 pm

That’s a hell of a warm nose. Very distinct.

I know some of y’all are tired of this, but I could go for another two weeks before I turn the thermostat back over.
I want single digits and teens and a foot of snow for a few weeks if I’m being completely honest lol
That’s what trips to the mountains and places like Montana are for.
That’s very true but it’s just not the same as experiencing it at your own place.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:09 pm
by jasons2k
Well I just went outside to shut the water back on and my backflow is cracked, right above the shutoff valve, even though I drained it. The bonnet is intact. I think some water must have gotten trapped in the ball valve itself and when it froze it cracked the brass. The good news is because of the location of the crack, it's not leaking more than a tiny drip, so at least I can run water again. But when it warms up now I have to buy another backflow and install it.

This cold snap officially sucks now. It's been an exhausting few days and now I have beds and beds of dead plants to dig up. It all adds up in the wallet too. I'm so over it already.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:18 pm
by DoctorMu
don wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:58 am I was afraid models were underestimating the staying power of arctic air Wxman57 mentioned also that this was a real possibility.12z mesoscale models are all coming in more aggressive and colder due to the coastal low being further offshore.Another thing is that a lot of objects and plants/trees outside are super cooled due to being well below freezing for more than 24+ hours now which could cause ice accretion to be more efficient than normally around here.
No surprise to me. We have albedo from the Dakotas to near the Gulf Coast.

These rolling blackouts are getting old. Fortunately we escaped last night and a low of 5°F without pipes (in the attic) freezing. But with freezing rain on the way. Most of the roads are barely drivable...especially with more machismo Aggie idiots on the road trying to POWER THROUGH snow in their truck. Folks, you can't power through snow and ice. You almost have to glide with virtually no acceleration and gentle braking - not date r*ping these conditions!

With the major ice storm back in the late 90s I was about the only person on the road and could manage quite easily. Snow and ice are common back in the old North State (NC) where I grew up.

Anyway, the rolling blackouts will probably continue. Home natural gas heating, cold, and offline power plants that run on gas were competing for slow flow of natural gas. Winter is the offseason for the plants, undergoing maintenance to prepare for those 100°F summers.

In the summer, things will be flipped. Chicago and Minneapolis will struggle through heat waves, while we cruise through 100°F day after 100°F day.

Nice powdery snow. Our Labrador retriever is in her element!

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:20 pm
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:23 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:16 pm Yeah I’m not liking how the HRRR looks.
Classic ice storm on the HRRR for my location.
Not good.

About 5 min with these rolling blackouts before I'm offline. (I'm all thumbs literally with my iPhone.)

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:21 pm
by megsy

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:34 pm
by Waded
These power outages have proven deadly. People dying due to house fires, carbon monoxide poisoning, people not securing their doors well enough and letting the cold air in.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:45 pm
by jasons2k
A little blue painter’s tape on the door seams goes a long way...

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:47 pm
by megsy
We have a busted pipe outside.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:01 pm
by don
NWS update on tonight's ice storm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_RBf2KCh1g

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:03 pm
by dp6
My goodness, I would absolutely love to have rolling blackouts. We're getting an hour of power, about twice a day. Others have it far worse.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:11 pm
by Cromagnum
21 hours and counting of no power or water here. It is absolute bullshit already.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:25 pm
by Kingwood36
Cromagnum wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:11 pm 21 hours and counting of no power or water here. It is absolute bullshit already.
I've been without power for 26 hrs now..this is getting old real quick