February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:45 pm

I feel more confident about the cold air being in place, its just a question of the evolution of the shortwaves moving through. We probably wont have a good idea until we get in range of the mesoscale models.18z GFS looks like it may be coming inline with the other models and shows the more potent shortwave coming through Valentines Day. If we can get a shortwave to come through once the arctic air is established over the area early next week,we may end up with a sleet/snow setup instead of just freezing rain. Also for those mentioning highway 105 lol, that wont be an issue with this setup as virtually everyone will be cold enough to support wintry precip.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:59 pm

The forecasts I’m seeing are pretty much going by what the Euro is saying. Not seeing any forecast colder than the upper 20’s. Probably the right way to go for now.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:08 pm

Id be conservative to with this still being 7 days out

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:10 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:08 pm Id be conservative to with this still being 7 days out

If I’m seeing things correctly, the Artic air is supposed to arrive here on Saturday.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:11 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:10 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:08 pm Id be conservative to with this still being 7 days out
If I’m seeing things correctly, the Artic air is supposed to arrive here on Saturday.

Well 5 days then lol

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:16 pm

18z GFS is a decent amount warmer than the insane 12z run. Doesn’t mean much though.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:23 pm

18z GFS doesn't have us get above freezing from Sunday-Wednesday next week, lets hope that doesn't verify.NWS wont change the forecast dramatically until they see a few more model runs. If the trends continue they probably will start to get more bullish by tomorrow or Wednesday afternoon.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:29 pm

Like I said 2 days ago these shallow air masses models struggle!!!

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:33 pm

Nws Corpus seems to be all in ...houston doesn't seem so..hmmm...

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:43 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:29 pm Like I said 2 days ago these shallow air masses models struggle!!!

\
I don't think the airmass is as shallow as everyone thinks. Combine that,,with upper level cold core shortwaves, the air column would support snow,not ice. Remember, shortwaves are low pressure systems in the upper levels of the atmoshphere with colder air circulating. The temperature of the air column is key.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:48 pm

It’s coming from Canada it’s always shallow mass coming from Canada

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:51 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:48 pm It’s coming from Canada it’s always shallow mass coming from Canada

Isn’t it coming from Siberia?

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:58 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:51 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:48 pm It’s coming from Canada it’s always shallow mass coming from Canada
Isn’t it coming from Siberia?

The origin of the massive High Pressure cell is Siberia.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:03 pm

danmaloney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:43 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:29 pm Like I said 2 days ago these shallow air masses models struggle!!!
\
I don't think the airmass is as shallow as everyone thinks. Combine that,,with upper level cold core shortwaves, the air column would support snow,not ice. Remember, shortwaves are low pressure systems in the upper levels of the atmoshphere with colder air circulating. The temperature of the air column is key.

You have to remember that there will also be a southwest flow aloft,which will bring warm moist pacific air over top of the cold air at the surface.That isn't the best setup for snow around here. While not impossible it will be hard around here to get snow with this setup.If you want to see snow here you will need an upper level trough to dig enough south to lower heights over the area.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:40 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:16 pm 18z GFS is a decent amount warmer than the insane 12z run. Doesn’t mean much though.

Lows up from 3°F to a balmy 9°F.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:44 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:40 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:16 pm 18z GFS is a decent amount warmer than the insane 12z run. Doesn’t mean much though.
Lows up from 3°F to a balmy 9°F.

10°F to 17°F for me lol

Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:52 pm

Wind chill readings could possibly be near 0 or below if these colder models verify.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:55 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:58 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:51 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:48 pm It’s coming from Canada it’s always shallow mass coming from Canada
Isn’t it coming from Siberia?
The origin of the massive High Pressure cell is Siberia.

The historic event of Dec. 1989 had its origins in Siberia.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:58 pm

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:55 pm
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:58 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:51 pm

Isn’t it coming from Siberia?
The origin of the massive High Pressure cell is Siberia.
The historic event of Dec. 1989 had its origins in Siberia.

December 1989 was a big one along with January 1886, February 1895, February 1899, January 1930, January 1978, and December 1983.

December 1983 and December 1989 are probably the closest one gets with February 1899.

Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:00 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:40 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:16 pm 18z GFS is a decent amount warmer than the insane 12z run. Doesn’t mean much though.
Lows up from 3°F to a balmy 9°F.

If that was the case, it would be even colder than February 1899.

I am sure there have been freezes like that in the past.

February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

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