February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Andrew
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Good evening everyone. Looks like nothing has changed since last night from a model perspective. We are in "Nowcasting" territory but we can continue to check some of the mesoscale models to give us a clue of where banding may occur. With any weather event down here some people will likely see localized totals a lot higher than forecasted while others may not see nearly as much. Either way, everyone is expected to see some sort of wintry precip in this historic event. Remember today because it's very unlikely you see an event like this for a long time (if ever), especially from a temperature perspective. Stay safe and stay warm!
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Snakeswx
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:37 pm It’s gonna overperform.
Agreed..
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I got a big batch headed right for me
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biggerbyte
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Something is wrong. The NWS says no go. Our weather people in this forum say it's coming. I don't get it.
davidiowx
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biggerbyte wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:53 pm Something is wrong. The NWS says no go. Our weather people in this forum say it's coming. I don't get it.
Lol.. what? NWS has a winter storm warning, wind chill warning, hard freeze warning, etc. In what world is that a “no go”. Lmao! Get outta here.
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srainhoutx
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Briefing from National Weather Service Houston/Galveston

https://youtu.be/Ma4sd8OdhfU
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jerryh421
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Parents house in Montgomery had some flurries. Seems a little early? Hopefully this is good news for us down in Houston!
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christinac2016
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I’m in the woodlands and haven’t seen much today. A little freezing rain earlier that interrupted my run. I’m ready for tonight and tomorrow. Just hope my little area doesn’t get skipped over. Lol
SLM87TX
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Freezing rain on south side of Huntsville. Icicles forming on roof line.
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srainhoutx
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Seeing some subtle changes with the HRRR from 18Z to 19Z. Banding features beginning to show up along the 59 Corridor from Victoria into Western/Central Harris County early in the morning.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I have my first flakes. Wind blowing them off the roof too. Definitely not used to the very frozen snowflake variety that’s powdery.
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TXWeatherMan
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srainhoutx wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:06 pm Seeing some subtle changes with the HRRR from 18Z to 19Z. Banding features beginning to show up along the 59 Corridor from Victoria into Western/Central Harris County early in the morning.
That run looks very good for me in Montgomery county
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MontgomeryCoWx
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TXWeatherMan wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:10 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:06 pm Seeing some subtle changes with the HRRR from 18Z to 19Z. Banding features beginning to show up along the 59 Corridor from Victoria into Western/Central Harris County early in the morning.
That run looks very good for me in Montgomery county
Taking the wife to Republic shortly. Shoot me the screen shot of the HRRR
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Kingwood36
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35.8 here in Angleton and dropping
TXWeatherMan
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:11 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:10 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:06 pm Seeing some subtle changes with the HRRR from 18Z to 19Z. Banding features beginning to show up along the 59 Corridor from Victoria into Western/Central Harris County early in the morning.
That run looks very good for me in Montgomery county
Taking the wife to Republic shortly. Shoot me the screen shot of the HRRR
I can’t post a pic but it gives most of the county 5 inches and has some nice banding features early in the morning.
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srainhoutx
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TXWeatherMan wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:21 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:11 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:10 pm

That run looks very good for me in Montgomery county
Taking the wife to Republic shortly. Shoot me the screen shot of the HRRR
I can’t post a pic but it gives most of the county 5 inches and has some nice banding features early in the morning.
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snowman65
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srainhoutx wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:26 pm
TXWeatherMan wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:21 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:11 pm

Taking the wife to Republic shortly. Shoot me the screen shot of the HRRR
I can’t post a pic but it gives most of the county 5 inches and has some nice banding features early in the morning.
Does that include sleet also or just snow? I'll take my 4" and RUN lol
ammmyjjj
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sleeting at my house in cypress right now....
bdog38
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bear creek sleeting with rain mix
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davidiowx
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Temp went from 35 to 31.6 in the last hour or so with light rain falling now.
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