February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[tireman4]

Where the front is at this time....

[Kingwood36]

Where the front is at this time....

Hasn't moved much...looks like it stalled?

[Kingwood36]

18zICON slightly colder compared to the 12z run.

[Kingwood36]

I know the answer but how accurate is weather bug lol

[tireman4]

I know the answer but how accurate is weather bug lol

Not...LOL

[jasons2k]

After much stalling, the front has finally pushed through here in Imperial Oaks. Must be on the move because at the doctor’s office in Sterling Ridge awhile ago it was still dead calm and muggy.

[tireman4]

Still warm and muggy in ye old Humble

[tireman4]

329
FXUS64 KHGX 092139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
339 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front has sagged into Southeast Texas today, and will
remain mostly stationary in the area through tomorrow, until it
finally clears the area sometime on Thursday morning. This front
will become a focus for showers and a few embedded thunderstorms,
particularly Wednesday night and Thursday.

Once that front finally clears, colder and drier air will surge
into Southeast Texas, beginning a prolonged cold snap that will
last well into next week. While we have high confidence in seeing
a long stretch of below normal temperatures, there is still some
uncertainty in precisely how severe this cold snap will be, and if
we`ll see any wintry precipitation. Stay tuned for the latest
forecast information - particularly if watches, warnings, or
advisories are needed for significantly abnormal cold.


.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

Satellite imagery and surface observations show that a cold front
has made its way to roughly US-59/I-69, leaving a stretch of the
Gulf coast in the warm, humid, pre- frontal airmass. Behind that
front, temperatures have remained cold underneath a relatively
thick, low stratus cloud deck. Temperatures there have remained
mired in the low to mid 50s, while dewpoints have fallen into the
40s. On the warm side of that front, highs in the 70s are being
seen, with dewpoints in the low mid 60s! Clouds in this region are
a bit more cumuliform...ish, while the humid air over the
relatively cold Gulf waters has helped generate a significant
area of sea fog.

The sea fog has prompted marine dense fog advisories on the
waters, and for more details on that, check the marine section
further down. Overnight, as long as winds become relatively light
as expected, land areas will also see overnight fog return. Unlike
last night, which saw widespread dense fog across Southeast Texas,
the most dense fog should be confined a little better to coastal
areas. Still, at least some fog is likely to push its way inland,
particularly if the stalled front retreats at all overnight.

Beyond the fog, there will be some low potential for showers
overnight, mainly right on the frontal surface where lifting of
the deeper onshore flow will be most significant. The front has
outrun its upper support considerably, so I`m not sure how
effective we`ll be at squeezing out a lot of showers, but the
isentropic upglide over that boundary may help us get a few
showers here and there.

Rain potential should be expected to gradually increase through
the day Wednesday, and particularly Wednesday night as an upper
trough finally comes to provide a little help to the surface
feature. Guidance indicates a little bit of instability being
generated as air cools aloft. It`s not going to be a lot of
thunderstorm fuel, but it should be enough to get a few of the
friskier embedded cells to generate some lightning strikes here
and there. The best shot for this is likely to be in the afternoon
Wednesday and/or Thursday, which means we have now arrived at the
segue to the long term section.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Fairly high rain chances will be ongoing across SE TX on Thurs with
the passage of the strong cold front. The bulk of the precipitation
should be showers, but still cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms
given the modest lapse rates/weak instability. All this activity is
expected to move off the coast with the front by early Fri morning.
Rainfall totals should average from 1/2 to 1 inch over the CWA with
isolated higher amounts from 1 to 1.5 inches possible.

Otherwise, the main forecast issue with this portion of the forecast
looks to be the potential for some very cold/well below normal temp-
eratures for an extended period (Thurs night through Mon night), and
perhaps a slight chance of precipitation during the same time frame.

Progs of a series of strong surface highs moving down from the High
Plains (1041mb to 1047mb) into the Central Plains from Thurs on in-
to the weekend will help maintain a strong/persistent CAA into the
state. Will continue to lean on the side of the colder GFS/Canadian
solutions for our temperatures. This pattern could produce extended
periods of freezing/below freezing temperatures this weekend...with
possibly a Freeze Warning for our coastal counties. Slightly better
consensus/slowly increasing confidence with the likelihood of colder
weather does make this a very good time to remind everyone to check
their cold weather preparations (both inside and outside) for this
potentially prolonged cold snap.

As for the chances of precipitation...models are continuing to show
a series of embedded shortwaves moving across the area through this
weekend. As it usually is with the SW flow aloft, the timing of said
shortwaves is expected to be an issue. Given the very cold air mass
in place over SE TX...there could be some light mixed precipitation
(rain-snow/sleet mix) over the CWA at times during this time frame.
As all of this is still a ways away, confidence remains very low for
this even verifying at this time.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A cold front is moving across the area a bit more towards the
coast than previously anticipated. As of now, the front is
anticipated to stall just north of the coastal terminals keeping
LBX/SGR/HOU and coastward impacted by fog today. IAH and sites
northward will get a break from low visibility, but ceilings will
remain an issue through the day. Fog returns tonight to restrict
visibility again, though drier air filtering in behind the front
may help mitigate this situation. The precise amount of help any
drier air provides will depend strongly on where exactly the front
stalls. For now, going a bit pessimistic. Conditions are not
forecasted to improve significantly until the front fully clears
the area on Thursday, and drier air overtakes the forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...

While webcams show that we`ve gotten a fair amount of improvement
in visibility on both Galveston and Matagorda bays, we also see
from webcams on the Gulf coast and from satellite that dense fog
has not retreated much more than that. The dense sea fog advisory
that`s been in place all day for the nearshore Gulf waters will
continue through the night, and will likely have to be extended
deeper into Wednesday. Meanwhile, while things have gotten nicer
on and around the bays this afternoon, we should see visibility
deteriorate again this evening as the sea fog returns and socks
things in overnight. Winds are expected to veer a touch more
southerly on Wednesday, which may help provide modest improvement
tomorrow. But ultimately, the environment will remain conducive
for sea fog until this cold front fully clears the waters on Thursday.

Though dense fog should clear in its wake, the front will also
usher in a prolonged stretch of cold, unsettled weather all the
way to the Gulf coast that will persist deep into next week. On
the waters, elevated northerly winds and seas should continue
through this stretch. Be on the lookout for caution flags and/or
small craft advisories as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 44 51 44 51 37 / 30 60 70 80 40
Houston (IAH) 57 69 56 64 44 / 30 30 70 80 60
Galveston (GLS) 59 65 61 66 48 / 20 30 70 80 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...35/Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[Kingwood36]

329
FXUS64 KHGX 092139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
339 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front has sagged into Southeast Texas today, and will
remain mostly stationary in the area through tomorrow, until it
finally clears the area sometime on Thursday morning. This front
will become a focus for showers and a few embedded thunderstorms,
particularly Wednesday night and Thursday.

Once that front finally clears, colder and drier air will surge
into Southeast Texas, beginning a prolonged cold snap that will
last well into next week. While we have high confidence in seeing
a long stretch of below normal temperatures, there is still some
uncertainty in precisely how severe this cold snap will be, and if
we`ll see any wintry precipitation. Stay tuned for the latest
forecast information - particularly if watches, warnings, or
advisories are needed for significantly abnormal cold.


.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

Satellite imagery and surface observations show that a cold front
has made its way to roughly US-59/I-69, leaving a stretch of the
Gulf coast in the warm, humid, pre- frontal airmass. Behind that
front, temperatures have remained cold underneath a relatively
thick, low stratus cloud deck. Temperatures there have remained
mired in the low to mid 50s, while dewpoints have fallen into the
40s. On the warm side of that front, highs in the 70s are being
seen, with dewpoints in the low mid 60s! Clouds in this region are
a bit more cumuliform...ish, while the humid air over the
relatively cold Gulf waters has helped generate a significant
area of sea fog.

The sea fog has prompted marine dense fog advisories on the
waters, and for more details on that, check the marine section
further down. Overnight, as long as winds become relatively light
as expected, land areas will also see overnight fog return. Unlike
last night, which saw widespread dense fog across Southeast Texas,
the most dense fog should be confined a little better to coastal
areas. Still, at least some fog is likely to push its way inland,
particularly if the stalled front retreats at all overnight.

Beyond the fog, there will be some low potential for showers
overnight, mainly right on the frontal surface where lifting of
the deeper onshore flow will be most significant. The front has
outrun its upper support considerably, so I`m not sure how
effective we`ll be at squeezing out a lot of showers, but the
isentropic upglide over that boundary may help us get a few
showers here and there.

Rain potential should be expected to gradually increase through
the day Wednesday, and particularly Wednesday night as an upper
trough finally comes to provide a little help to the surface
feature. Guidance indicates a little bit of instability being
generated as air cools aloft. It`s not going to be a lot of
thunderstorm fuel, but it should be enough to get a few of the
friskier embedded cells to generate some lightning strikes here
and there. The best shot for this is likely to be in the afternoon
Wednesday and/or Thursday, which means we have now arrived at the
segue to the long term section.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Fairly high rain chances will be ongoing across SE TX on Thurs with
the passage of the strong cold front. The bulk of the precipitation
should be showers, but still cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms
given the modest lapse rates/weak instability. All this activity is
expected to move off the coast with the front by early Fri morning.
Rainfall totals should average from 1/2 to 1 inch over the CWA with
isolated higher amounts from 1 to 1.5 inches possible.

Otherwise, the main forecast issue with this portion of the forecast
looks to be the potential for some very cold/well below normal temp-
eratures for an extended period (Thurs night through Mon night), and
perhaps a slight chance of precipitation during the same time frame.

Progs of a series of strong surface highs moving down from the High
Plains (1041mb to 1047mb) into the Central Plains from Thurs on in-
to the weekend will help maintain a strong/persistent CAA into the
state. Will continue to lean on the side of the colder GFS/Canadian
solutions for our temperatures. This pattern could produce extended
periods of freezing/below freezing temperatures this weekend...with
possibly a Freeze Warning for our coastal counties. Slightly better
consensus/slowly increasing confidence with the likelihood of colder
weather does make this a very good time to remind everyone to check
their cold weather preparations (both inside and outside) for this
potentially prolonged cold snap.

As for the chances of precipitation...models are continuing to show
a series of embedded shortwaves moving across the area through this
weekend. As it usually is with the SW flow aloft, the timing of said
shortwaves is expected to be an issue. Given the very cold air mass
in place over SE TX...there could be some light mixed precipitation
(rain-snow/sleet mix) over the CWA at times during this time frame.
As all of this is still a ways away, confidence remains very low for
this even verifying at this time.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A cold front is moving across the area a bit more towards the
coast than previously anticipated. As of now, the front is
anticipated to stall just north of the coastal terminals keeping
LBX/SGR/HOU and coastward impacted by fog today. IAH and sites
northward will get a break from low visibility, but ceilings will
remain an issue through the day. Fog returns tonight to restrict
visibility again, though drier air filtering in behind the front
may help mitigate this situation. The precise amount of help any
drier air provides will depend strongly on where exactly the front
stalls. For now, going a bit pessimistic. Conditions are not
forecasted to improve significantly until the front fully clears
the area on Thursday, and drier air overtakes the forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...

While webcams show that we`ve gotten a fair amount of improvement
in visibility on both Galveston and Matagorda bays, we also see
from webcams on the Gulf coast and from satellite that dense fog
has not retreated much more than that. The dense sea fog advisory
that`s been in place all day for the nearshore Gulf waters will
continue through the night, and will likely have to be extended
deeper into Wednesday. Meanwhile, while things have gotten nicer
on and around the bays this afternoon, we should see visibility
deteriorate again this evening as the sea fog returns and socks
things in overnight. Winds are expected to veer a touch more
southerly on Wednesday, which may help provide modest improvement
tomorrow. But ultimately, the environment will remain conducive
for sea fog until this cold front fully clears the waters on Thursday.

Though dense fog should clear in its wake, the front will also
usher in a prolonged stretch of cold, unsettled weather all the
way to the Gulf coast that will persist deep into next week. On
the waters, elevated northerly winds and seas should continue
through this stretch. Be on the lookout for caution flags and/or
small craft advisories as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 44 51 44 51 37 / 30 60 70 80 40
Houston (IAH) 57 69 56 64 44 / 30 30 70 80 60
Galveston (GLS) 59 65 61 66 48 / 20 30 70 80 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...35/Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

They dont sound to confident on precip-type around here at all

[jasons2k]

Looking at the data, front passed here at about 2pm.

[don]

GFS has been consistent... 18z GFS shows what would be a major ice storm here on Presidents Day.

[Kingwood36]

GFS has been consistent... 18z GFS shows what would be a major ice storm here on Presidents Day.

Let's hope the air is deeper like blake was saying and that's all snow and not that damn ice

[Benjamin Yakul]

GFS has been consistent... 18z GFS shows what would be a major ice storm here on Presidents Day.

Let's hope the air is deeper like blake was saying and that's all snow and not that damn ice

The air column will be colder because of the shortwave's upper level cold air.

[txsnowmaker]

GFS has been consistent... 18z GFS shows what would be a major ice storm here on Presidents Day.

Let's hope the air is deeper like blake was saying and that's all snow and not that damn ice

The air column will be colder because of the shortwave's upper level cold air.

I like this forecast for Monday. 1.6 inches of snow over Houston. That would rival the Dec. 1989 event!

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/u ... ston/77057

[Cpv17]

If you’re new on here, I’d like to suggest if you don’t mind updating your location, that would be great! It helps out all of us so we know what part of the area you’re in. Thanks.

[DoctorMu]

Trying to convince the gf to hold off on going to the store till aboit Friday or Saturday to make sure this is really going to happen lol..she wants to buy all kinds of supplies...lol

It never hurts to be over prepared. Thursday or Friday would suck because that is when everyone will be there. Watches could potentially be hoisted on Friday/Saturday.

Yeah, I'd go now. It's going to be cold at the least.

[DoctorMu]

Blake says it might be all snow around here...he says the cold air looks to be a bit deeper

"The latest GFS model indicates Wednesday and Thursday are likely to be wet days. Then the cold air moves in which could set the stage for freezing rain, sleet and perhaps even all snow as the cold air looks to be a bit deeper heading into Monday. #KHOU11"

Blake's caving? It must be realer than real.

[DoctorMu]

GFS has been consistent... 18z GFS shows what would be a major ice storm here on Presidents Day.

Yes. In the heavy snow belt again.

[DoctorMu]

329
FXUS64 KHGX 092139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
339 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front has sagged into Southeast Texas today, and will
remain mostly stationary in the area through tomorrow, until it
finally clears the area sometime on Thursday morning. This front
will become a focus for showers and a few embedded thunderstorms,
particularly Wednesday night and Thursday.

Once that front finally clears, colder and drier air will surge
into Southeast Texas, beginning a prolonged cold snap that will
last well into next week. While we have high confidence in seeing
a long stretch of below normal temperatures, there is still some
uncertainty in precisely how severe this cold snap will be, and if
we`ll see any wintry precipitation. Stay tuned for the latest
forecast information - particularly if watches, warnings, or
advisories are needed for significantly abnormal cold.


.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

Satellite imagery and surface observations show that a cold front
has made its way to roughly US-59/I-69, leaving a stretch of the
Gulf coast in the warm, humid, pre- frontal airmass. Behind that
front, temperatures have remained cold underneath a relatively
thick, low stratus cloud deck. Temperatures there have remained
mired in the low to mid 50s, while dewpoints have fallen into the
40s. On the warm side of that front, highs in the 70s are being
seen, with dewpoints in the low mid 60s! Clouds in this region are
a bit more cumuliform...ish, while the humid air over the
relatively cold Gulf waters has helped generate a significant
area of sea fog.

The sea fog has prompted marine dense fog advisories on the
waters, and for more details on that, check the marine section
further down. Overnight, as long as winds become relatively light
as expected, land areas will also see overnight fog return. Unlike
last night, which saw widespread dense fog across Southeast Texas,
the most dense fog should be confined a little better to coastal
areas. Still, at least some fog is likely to push its way inland,
particularly if the stalled front retreats at all overnight.

Beyond the fog, there will be some low potential for showers
overnight, mainly right on the frontal surface where lifting of
the deeper onshore flow will be most significant. The front has
outrun its upper support considerably, so I`m not sure how
effective we`ll be at squeezing out a lot of showers, but the
isentropic upglide over that boundary may help us get a few
showers here and there.

Rain potential should be expected to gradually increase through
the day Wednesday, and particularly Wednesday night as an upper
trough finally comes to provide a little help to the surface
feature. Guidance indicates a little bit of instability being
generated as air cools aloft. It`s not going to be a lot of
thunderstorm fuel, but it should be enough to get a few of the
friskier embedded cells to generate some lightning strikes here
and there. The best shot for this is likely to be in the afternoon
Wednesday and/or Thursday, which means we have now arrived at the
segue to the long term section.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Fairly high rain chances will be ongoing across SE TX on Thurs with
the passage of the strong cold front. The bulk of the precipitation
should be showers, but still cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms
given the modest lapse rates/weak instability. All this activity is
expected to move off the coast with the front by early Fri morning.
Rainfall totals should average from 1/2 to 1 inch over the CWA with
isolated higher amounts from 1 to 1.5 inches possible.

Otherwise, the main forecast issue with this portion of the forecast
looks to be the potential for some very cold/well below normal temp-
eratures for an extended period (Thurs night through Mon night), and
perhaps a slight chance of precipitation during the same time frame.

Progs of a series of strong surface highs moving down from the High
Plains (1041mb to 1047mb) into the Central Plains from Thurs on in-
to the weekend will help maintain a strong/persistent CAA into the
state. Will continue to lean on the side of the colder GFS/Canadian
solutions for our temperatures. This pattern could produce extended
periods of freezing/below freezing temperatures this weekend...with
possibly a Freeze Warning for our coastal counties. Slightly better
consensus/slowly increasing confidence with the likelihood of colder
weather does make this a very good time to remind everyone to check
their cold weather preparations (both inside and outside) for this
potentially prolonged cold snap.

As for the chances of precipitation...models are continuing to show
a series of embedded shortwaves moving across the area through this
weekend. As it usually is with the SW flow aloft, the timing of said
shortwaves is expected to be an issue. Given the very cold air mass
in place over SE TX...there could be some light mixed precipitation
(rain-snow/sleet mix) over the CWA at times during this time frame.
As all of this is still a ways away, confidence remains very low for
this even verifying at this time.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A cold front is moving across the area a bit more towards the
coast than previously anticipated. As of now, the front is
anticipated to stall just north of the coastal terminals keeping
LBX/SGR/HOU and coastward impacted by fog today. IAH and sites
northward will get a break from low visibility, but ceilings will
remain an issue through the day. Fog returns tonight to restrict
visibility again, though drier air filtering in behind the front
may help mitigate this situation. The precise amount of help any
drier air provides will depend strongly on where exactly the front
stalls. For now, going a bit pessimistic. Conditions are not
forecasted to improve significantly until the front fully clears
the area on Thursday, and drier air overtakes the forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...

While webcams show that we`ve gotten a fair amount of improvement
in visibility on both Galveston and Matagorda bays, we also see
from webcams on the Gulf coast and from satellite that dense fog
has not retreated much more than that. The dense sea fog advisory
that`s been in place all day for the nearshore Gulf waters will
continue through the night, and will likely have to be extended
deeper into Wednesday. Meanwhile, while things have gotten nicer
on and around the bays this afternoon, we should see visibility
deteriorate again this evening as the sea fog returns and socks
things in overnight. Winds are expected to veer a touch more
southerly on Wednesday, which may help provide modest improvement
tomorrow. But ultimately, the environment will remain conducive
for sea fog until this cold front fully clears the waters on Thursday.

Though dense fog should clear in its wake, the front will also
usher in a prolonged stretch of cold, unsettled weather all the
way to the Gulf coast that will persist deep into next week. On
the waters, elevated northerly winds and seas should continue
through this stretch. Be on the lookout for caution flags and/or
small craft advisories as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 44 51 44 51 37 / 30 60 70 80 40
Houston (IAH) 57 69 56 64 44 / 30 30 70 80 60
Galveston (GLS) 59 65 61 66 48 / 20 30 70 80 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...35/Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

They dont sound to confident on precip-type around here at all

I'd be afraid to make a definitive call just yet.

[DoctorMu]

GFS has been consistent... 18z GFS shows what would be a major ice storm here on Presidents Day.

Let's hope the air is deeper like blake was saying and that's all snow and not that damn ice