February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[txsnowmaker]

Guess everyone is waiting for the Euro lol. Where did dawnmaloney go

[harp]

Guess everyone is waiting for the Euro lol. Where did dawnmaloney go

Let sleeping dogs lie!!!

[txsnowmaker]

Based on performance this winter, between the GFS and Euro which has been more reliable (if either) in the 4-5 day range?

[Andrew]

ECMWF is pretty close to the GFS in the progression of the cold air Monday evening but has mostly rain over the Houston region on Monday. Still, lows in the teens on Tuesday

[TexasMetBlake]

Euro has finally joined the GFS but keeps the coldest stuff for Tuesday 12z. Showing a low of 17 in Downtown Houston. Keeps all precip liquid with a change over to snow towards the Brazos Valley.

[Cpv17]

Euro has finally joined the GFS but keeps the coldest stuff for Tuesday 12z. Showing a low of 17 in Downtown Houston. Keeps all precip liquid with a change over to snow towards the Brazos Valley.

That’s scary and btw the Euro will probably trend colder over the coming runs. It’s been playing catch up since 12z Friday.

[txsnowmaker]

Does that really make sense that we get into the teens in Houston yet it stays all liquid? I don’t buy it if those temps come to fruition.

[DoctorMu]

Does that really make sense that we get into the teens in Houston yet it stays all liquid? I don’t buy it if those temps come to fruition.

Probably about 20°F...but ICE. Bad news.

Might as well accept the mega cold (single digits to 20°F). Praying for snow, not ice.

[txsnowmaker]

Does that really make sense that we get into the teens in Houston yet it stays all liquid? I don’t buy it if those temps come to fruition.

Probably about 20°F...but ICE. Bad news.

Might as well accept the mega cold (single digits to 20°F). Praying for snow, not ice.

We don’t need ice. With the temps being forecast at the moment I’m willing to bet this air will be cold and deep enough to avoid being warm nosed to an extent that would prevent snow.

[txsnowmaker]

What are the Euro control and ensembles showing in terms of frozen precip next week?

[Andrew]

What are the Euro control and ensembles showing in terms of frozen precip next week?

This is the snow map:

[txsnowmaker]

What are the Euro control and ensembles showing in terms of frozen precip next week?

This is the snow map:

Isn’t that just the operational though?

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, the Euro right now is similar to the Jan 10 snow event up here in the NW territories.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 0600z.html

Except there's a lot of freezing rain/sleet around Houston.

[Andrew]

What are the Euro control and ensembles showing in terms of frozen precip next week?

This is the snow map:

Isn’t that just the operational though?

Ensembles won't be out for another couple of hours.

[Stratton20]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ec ... JB4NXM.png

Here is the 00z ensemble snowfall run

[Stormlover2020]

Yeah, the Euro right now is similar to the Jan 10 snow event up here in the NW territories.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 0600z.html

Except there's a lot of freezing rain/sleet around Houston.

It’s not similar stop saying that

[Kingwood36]

Euro LOVES that 105....I dont see how the icon,cmc,ukmet,gfs,all have a winter storm for here and frozen precip but the euro is the only one who doesn't have it and keeps everything rain till you get to the Brazosvalley...im not buying the euro

[Andrew]

Somehow the GFS is even colder on the 06Z run. Incredible

[TexasBreeze]

Didn't expect 2 degrees coming on the model....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It’s a blend of 1989 and 1899.
Truly wild.

I’m used to this cold from my time at Ohio State and in Montana, but it’s different for sure