February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[Cpv17]

0z CMC looks just like the other models.

[Kingwood36]

This is unreal

[don]

Yep models are starting to get a consensus,lets see if the Euro gets onboard now.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Somebody wake me up

[Belmer]

00z Icon, Canadian and GFS are just absolutely bonkers. Talk about consistency in the short-medium range with such extreme temps/snow/ice. Heck, CMC says let's keep the party going into next Wednesday and Thursday. I know the idea of this may be exciting for those who like to see the extremes, but this has the potential to cause some major damage not only across the state but the country. Billions of dollars in damage.

[TexasMetBlake]

This is quickly becoming very concerning and a major disaster. I've never in my career seen models forecast this type of cold here, ever. I was too young to remember 1989 but this goes beyond 1989. This is more along the lines of 1899 or worse. I'm very concerned about the potential for a prolonged sub-freezing stretch with single digits and teens. 1930 holds the all-time low of 5. Do we challenge that? It's possible I suppose if we have an abundance of ice and snow on the ground and skies clear. Mercy.

Take a deep breath y'all. This is unbelievable. Truly, unbelievable.

[Ptarmigan]

This is quickly becoming very concerning and a major disaster. I've never in my career seen models forecast this type of cold here, ever. I was too young to remember 1989 but this goes beyond 1989. This is more along the lines of 1899 or worse. I'm very concerned about the potential for a prolonged sub-freezing stretch with single digits and teens. 1930 holds the all-time low of 5. Do we challenge that? It's possible I suppose if we have an abundance of ice and snow on the ground and skies clear. Mercy.

Take a deep breath y'all. This is unbelievable. Truly, unbelievable.

I am thinking February 1895 and February 1899.

February 1895 had 20 inches of snow. February 1899 was an epic freeze.

[art3]

WOW. Ive was born and raised in Houston-and still live here. I recall 1989 vividly. It was like 9 degrees and must have been couple of inches of ice outside. But this...looks worse-Im concerned about tree limbs etc around the house...power etc

[TexasMetBlake]

Here's a look at the raw GFS output for IAH. Highs in the 20s and a low of 9 degrees. Not quite 1989 but darn close.

[Cpv17]

The UKMET is onboard as well folks!

[Andrew]

The run from the GFS is a worst-case scenario where we have a solid layer of frozen precipitation and clearing skies resulting in strong radiational cooling. Could it happen? Sure, but I think the more likely scenario is lows in the upper 10s/low 20s. Obviously, something to keep in mind and further shows the importance of any precipitation that does fall. Just reading the GFS verbatim we would be looking at a "noreaster" type of event with a coastal low developing and tracking to the northeast.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

UKMET says accumulating snow from Galveston to Brownsville... LOL

[txsnowmaker]

WOW. Ive was born and raised in Houston-and still live here. I recall 1989 vividly. It was like 9 degrees and must have been couple of inches of ice outside. But this...looks worse-Im concerned about tree limbs etc around the house...power etc

We had nearly a couple of inches of snow on the ground for at least 24 hours, but definitely not a couple of inches of ice. There were pipe issues and some power troubles as well, but nowhere near the trouble that would have come from a coupe of inches of ice.

[txsnowmaker]

How much snow is being spit out for Houston from the latest suite of 0z products? That can’t all be ice in the GFS map?!?!

[Kingwood36]

Ukmet

[txsnowmaker]

This is incredible. That would be something else.

[TexasMetBlake]

GFS is definitely a worse-case scenario and it seems too unbelievable to be true. Not saying it can't happen but that's a perfect storm of heavy snow or ice accumulations and a clearing sky like Andrew alluded to. Strong radiational cooling could in theory cause our temps to tank to near all-time lows. We'll see. Not ready to go that far yet.

[txsnowmaker]

Ukmet

These models would likely be a repeat of 1989 where Galveston Bay froze over with an ensuing massive fish die off. These maps actually suggest it could be even worse if they came to fruition. Let’s have snow without the devastation and damage to homes, infrastructure, and wildlife!

[TexasMetBlake]

A freeze of this magnitude has been well documented many times in this area. It only stands to reason it was going to happen again. I don't think it's a question of if but how bad. It's all about the snow/ice cover I think at this point and how fast the skies clear.

[txsnowmaker]

The GFS run is wild. It adds even more snow on Wednesday. Check out this map! Seems to show about a half foot of snow in Houston. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_32.png