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Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:33 am
by Rip76
Is that in inches (the legend on the right)
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:34 am
by redneckweather
Rip76 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:33 am
Is that in inches (the legend on the right)
Yes
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:38 am
by djmike
Snowman65..:..You can drive to Beaumont. Lol. 1-2” per the NAM. Unfortunately it drops near Vidor eastward.
I think everyone will see “something” eventually. (Snow, sleet, ice, graupel...etc) JMO. Remember, many models have a hard time with cold weather. Hence why we get surprised many times on snow events down here.
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:38 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
If I see this play out like that, I’m driving to CS, scaling Kyle Field and playing Football with my child.
Yeah, I’d have 4-6 inches, but close to a foot is a whole different t ballgame.
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:43 am
by Kingwood36
I remember plenty times when they were forecasting nothing in certain areas and then when the event started those areas got something that wasn't forecasted due to models under estimating things...so will see what happens
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:43 am
by snowman65
djmike wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:38 am
Snowman65..:..You can drive to Beaumont. Lol. 1-2” per the NAM. Unfortunately it drops near Vidor eastward.
I think everyone will see “something” eventually. (Snow, sleet, ice, graupel...etc) JMO. Remember, many models have a hard time with cold weather. Hence why we get surprised many times on snow events down here.
Whats your address? Lolol
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:45 am
by don
The WRF looks nice with temps in the low to mid 30s all the way to the coast with plenty of precip over southeast Texas at the same time as the trowel moves through. Looks like as expected the mesoscale models are coming in more aggressive with the cold air advection.
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:56 am
by Cromagnum
Well, we did have all these gulf hurricanes this year. More times than not winter gets interesting in landfalling years.
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:11 pm
by cperk
snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:43 am
djmike wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:38 am
Snowman65..:..You can drive to Beaumont. Lol. 1-2” per the NAM. Unfortunately it drops near Vidor eastward.
I think everyone will see “something” eventually. (Snow, sleet, ice, graupel...etc) JMO. Remember, many models have a hard time with cold weather. Hence why we get surprised many times on snow events down here.
Whats your address? Lolol
I'm looking at some photos from 12/8/2017 with Fort Bend county covered in snow and the OCM'S forecasted a few flakes if that.I'm not gonna get to excited,but i'm certainly not gonna rule it out.
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:16 pm
by davidiowx
cperk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:11 pm
snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:43 am
djmike wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:38 am
Snowman65..:..You can drive to Beaumont. Lol. 1-2” per the NAM. Unfortunately it drops near Vidor eastward.
I think everyone will see “something” eventually. (Snow, sleet, ice, graupel...etc) JMO. Remember, many models have a hard time with cold weather. Hence why we get surprised many times on snow events down here.
Whats your address? Lolol
I'm looking at some photos from 12/8/2017 with Fort Bend county covered in snow and the OCM'S forecasted a few flakes if that.I'm not gonna get to excited,but i'm certainly not gonna rule it out.
I remember that quite well. Lived off Memorial and I-10 and Harvey flooded our place for over two weeks. Completely destroyed everything. We moved out to Richmond after all of that and got about 1-1/2 to 2 inches of snow a month after moving into our new house. It was a great ending to an otherwise miserable second half of 2017.
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:37 pm
by ArizonaAZMeador
i remember that. about 1.5 inches near Pearland,when,that very evening,the OCM'S were downplaying everything with negativity. All of them seemed embarrased the next day.
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:03 pm
by davidiowx
18z HRRR has more snow around here than the 12z run. Brings a back sided band across 1-10 and N as the low pulls out
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:07 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
All mesoscale models have at least 4 inches for me and some as much as 7 ....
Yet MoCo is not in the Winter Storm Watch.... Yeesh. Something has to give.
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:10 pm
by TexasMetBlake
Winter Storm Warnings are starting to go up with the afternoon packages. Will be interesting to see what they do with Montgomery, San Jacinto and Polk counties.
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:15 pm
by TexasMetBlake
Austin just went under a Winter Weather Advisory. I suspect the same is coming for Montgomery, San Jac and Polk counties soon.
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:19 pm
by Kingwood36
KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:15 pm
Austin just went under a Winter Weather Advisory. I suspect the same is coming for Montgomery, San Jac and Polk counties soon.
Be honest blake do you think this makes it into brazoria county? I'd be happy with a fake lol
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:24 pm
by Cpv17
Bottom line is that it’s becoming increasingly likely that areas north of I-10 will see at least some snow. I would put areas along the 59 corridor and points north of there into the maybe category now. We’re still 24 hours out or so. Things can easily still change. Remember the trends have been really good ever since 12z yesterday. That’s a full model cycle of good trends!
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:26 pm
by ArizonaAZMeador
I detected negativity from Blake. Yesterday,he was the voice of positivity. The short term meso models are trending colder and snowier. Blake, please do something to make it happen
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:27 pm
by Kingwood36
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:24 pm
Bottom line is that it’s becoming increasingly likely that areas north of I-10 will see at least some snow. I would put areas along the 59 corridor and points north of there into the maybe category now. We’re still 24 hours out or so. Things can easily still change. Remember the trends have been really good ever since 12z yesterday. That’s a full model cycle of good trends!
So points south if i10 are still rain
Re: January 2021
Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:29 pm
by ArizonaAZMeador
Freeways like i10 and 59 werent designed to be boundaries for cold and snow.Im not buying into this " area north of i10" boundary. watch the upper low. i am looking at it onwater vapor. Its digging and looks to move right over Houston with a cold core. Upper lows such as this one dont care if you are north or south of i10