January 2021

[Cpv17]

Bottom line is that it’s becoming increasingly likely that areas north of I-10 will see at least some snow. I would put areas along the 59 corridor and points north of there into the maybe category now. We’re still 24 hours out or so. Things can easily still change. Remember the trends have been really good ever since 12z yesterday. That’s a full model cycle of good trends!

So points south if i10 are still rain

Mostly, yes. I would say that you can’t rule out some snow though as far south as 59.

[TexasMetBlake]

I think the accumulations will drop off quick but to have snow in the air? Yeah, I-10/59 is a good arbitrary boundary. Expect the unexpected. Rarely do these systems behave the way they’re forecast to.

[srainhoutx]

Winter Storm Warnings coming for Bryan/College Station shortly

[Stormlover2020]

Nam is stronger

[ArizonaAZMeador]

thanks for being positive, stormlover. the nam will only get stronger. im watching the center of the cold core uppler low on visible Sat.The center is still in Arizona,digging,about to cross the NM border.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

WRF-ARW2 ... LOL

has a swath of a foot plus from NW Montgomery County to Northeast Texas.

CS gets 10 inches, west of CS 12-15 inches.

Please?

[Kingwood36]

NAM is either going to go down in history as historic or as a major bust with these totals

[MontgomeryCoWx]

NAM is either going to go down in history as historic or as a major bust with these totals

It’s not just the NAM, pretty much all the mesoscale models are on board and much further south than the globals with accumulating snow.

[Kingwood36]

So explain this to me..the globals are the gfs and the euro right? That are basically showing not much of anything this way

[davidiowx]

Problem with NAM is if you’re looking at snow accumulations, which this run shows accumulations all the way to Galveston island, it is fairly poor at differentiating snow from sleet or snow melting to rain at the surface.

If you look at the surface reflectivity, it keeps the snow line north of Harris county. However, the cloud tops are cold (yellows all over our area) so it is certainly possible the column cools down as the event unfolds and we get one heck of a surprise. Just my opinion.

[davidiowx]

NAM is either going to go down in history as historic or as a major bust with these totals

It’s not just the NAM, pretty much all the mesoscale models are on board and much further south than the globals with accumulating snow.

I agree, the meso’s are still trending south, and have been for several runs now. If it continues there will be a lot of people upset over on Storm2K

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So explain this to me..the globals are the gfs and the euro right? That are basically showing not much of anything this way

Yes, globals we rely on are GFS and EURO. Occasionally the Canadian scores one right.

Globals show the 540 line here with precip in the area, and if that’s the case, I like our chances.

Euro is more bullish than GFS last I checked, but I’ve been looking at mesoscale models since this morning.

[Kingwood36]

Blake just tweeted this... a steak right threw my ❤ lol I lived in kingwood in 2004 and didn't get jack lol

So I hate to be whatever, but...

Those of you in the coastal counties probably won’t get any snow while those of us up north will.

We remember 2004 when you guys got buried at the coast and we didn’t even get a flurry up north.

IT’S OUR TURN!! (meant in good fun)

[davidiowx]

Blake just tweeted this... a steak right threw my ❤ lol I lived in kingwood in 2004 and didn't get jack lol

So I hate to be whatever, but...

Those of you in the coastal counties probably won’t get any snow while those of us up north will.

We remember 2004 when you guys got buried at the coast and we didn’t even get a flurry up north.

IT’S OUR TURN!! (meant in good fun)

Goes hand in hand with HGX’s discussion an hour or so ago. Still plenty of time for things to change in my opinion.

If history serves me right, the times we actually got some good snowfall that accumulated, it was not forecast s well until the last second or it was already happening. The times in which we have had winter storm watches/warnings, it seems like it never really came together down here. Time will tell!

[txsnowmaker]

Good to see everyone here! I’m in SW Houston in the Galleria area and getting excited about what could be in store. What is the latest NAM depicting for this part of Houston??

[davidiowx]

Good to see everyone here! I’m in SW Houston in the Galleria area and getting excited about what could be in store. What is the latest NAM depicting for this part of Houston??

This is what it shows but take it with a grain of salt because the NAM can’t really differentiate accumulating snow from sleet or snow that melts to rain as it falls and nears the surface.

[redneckweather]

Blake just tweeted this... a steak right threw my ❤ lol I lived in kingwood in 2004 and didn't get jack lol

So I hate to be whatever, but...

Those of you in the coastal counties probably won’t get any snow while those of us up north will.

We remember 2004 when you guys got buried at the coast and we didn’t even get a flurry up north.

IT’S OUR TURN!! (meant in good fun)

Man, that one hurt. I didnt see one flurry out of that. I bring that up every winter.lol

[davidiowx]

Blake just tweeted this... a steak right threw my ❤ lol I lived in kingwood in 2004 and didn't get jack lol

So I hate to be whatever, but...

Those of you in the coastal counties probably won’t get any snow while those of us up north will.

We remember 2004 when you guys got buried at the coast and we didn’t even get a flurry up north.

IT’S OUR TURN!! (meant in good fun)

Man, that one hurt. I didnt see one flurry out of that. I bring that up every winter.lol

Yeah I was in Friendswood, it was spectacular!! I remember I was eating at Pappas Seafood off of I-45 with family and it started snowing heavily. We got home and it was still snowing. It literally didn’t stop for hours!

[Kingwood36]

Good to see everyone here! I’m in SW Houston in the Galleria area and getting excited about what could be in store. What is the latest NAM depicting for this part of Houston??

This is what it shows but take it with a grain of salt because the NAM can’t really differentiate accumulating snow from sleet or snow that melts to rain as it falls and nears the surface.

Man these nam runs continue to get closer to the coast with each run...but no need to get excited since its probably just rain

[txsnowmaker]

Good to see everyone here! I’m in SW Houston in the Galleria area and getting excited about what could be in store. What is the latest NAM depicting for this part of Houston??

This is what it shows but take it with a grain of salt because the NAM can’t really differentiate accumulating snow from sleet or snow that melts to rain as it falls and nears the surface.

Many thanks! Hoping it is snow, makes it to the ground, and accumulates. If not the latter, at least makes it to the ground. Fingers crossed for everyone.