December 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:38 am Heading to SmokeyMountainSrain’s part of the world next weekend. Give me some cold weather for A&M-UT next weekend Srain!
Right now it looks seasonally chilly in Knoxville next weekend behind the big Mid Atlantic/Southern New England Nor'easter blowing up Tuesday night into Wednesday. Enjoy!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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MontgomeryCoWx
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srainhoutx wrote: Sat Dec 12, 2020 3:11 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:38 am Heading to SmokeyMountainSrain’s part of the world next weekend. Give me some cold weather for A&M-UT next weekend Srain!
Right now it looks seasonally chilly in Knoxville next weekend behind the big Mid Atlantic/Southern New England Nor'easter blowing up Tuesday night into Wednesday. Enjoy!
Much love!
Team #NeverSummer
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snowman65
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Is it just me or does the end of the year look pretty chilly?
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don
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Loving the heavy rain today,its raining more than i expected.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:58 am Is it just me or does the end of the year look pretty chilly?
Outside of the occasional upper 60 to 70 degree day, we will probably finish December 4 plus degrees below average.

Lots of snow pack being laid to our north over the next week.
Team #NeverSummer
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Katdaddy
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A low chance of severe weather across Coastal SE TX including the Houston-Galveston areas this afternoon.

Mesoscale Discussion 1845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

Areas affected...Coastal southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131946Z - 132145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may intensify enough to support
an isolated wind threat through the late afternoon hours for the
coastal regions of southeast Texas and into southwest Louisiana.
Given the dynamic environment, a brief tornado threat may manifest
with the strongest storms.
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Rip76
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Very steady rain here in Friendswood.
javakah
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Cold front definitely just blew threw Fulshear. Fairly warm, then became (and still is) quite gusty, and you could easily feel the temperature dropping pretty sharply over just a few minutes.
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Katdaddy
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...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Chambers, Inland Galveston, Coastal Harris, Coastal
Jackson, Coastal Matagorda, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston
Counties, Matagorda Islands, Brazoria Islands and Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
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djmike
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Here we go in Beaumont again. Squall line approaching. Lightning and thunder pretty intense. Rained all day and I guess this is the grand finale. ...then cold.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Katdaddy
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
319 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-236>238-300-313-337-338-437-438-132245-
Inland Brazoria TX-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula TX-
Northern Liberty TX-Inland Matagorda TX-Chambers TX-
Inland Galveston TX-Coastal Galveston TX-Brazoria Islands TX-
Southern Liberty TX-Coastal Harris TX-Wharton TX-Inland Harris TX-
Fort Bend TX-Coastal Brazoria TX-
319 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHARTON...
GALVESTON...SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...NORTH
CENTRAL MATAGORDA...LIBERTY AND EASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CST...

At 315 PM CST, A cold front stretching along a line from Cleveland
to Houston to Boling continues moving east southeast across the
region. Latest observations indicate wind gusts between 30 and 45
mph along the initial wind shift.

Wind speeds will remain elevated into the evening and overnight
hours.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Baytown, southern Missouri City,
Galveston Causeway, Galveston Island West End, Texas City,
Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, Lake Jackson, Alvin, Angleton,
Dickinson, South Houston, La Marque, Santa Fe, Freeport and Seabrook.
Cromagnum
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Getting feisty in Central Brazoria County right now.
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djmike
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Severe Thunderstorms Warning Jefferson County. Getting hairy up here now. 330pm and its as dark as night. Batten down the hatches. 🌪⚡️
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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djmike
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Let the flooding begin... 😞 Stranded. Again. Grrr
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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djmike
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Rain. Big Rain. Little Rain. = FLOODING
So tired of it. Ever since Harvey and Imelda, it has never been the same. Our flooding in the city has gotten out of hand. (And still raining hard).
D69B897D-DA6A-4D86-8D80-B0931EF56397.jpeg
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22018FFA-2645-4BFB-9DBE-F1BD0F605CA5.jpeg
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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jasons2k
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I got .14" here. Not much, but enough to wet the soil again. Mike, sorry to hear about the flooding in Beaumont. I know several people it has affected. It's almost like a 'new normal' which is not good news.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Perfect back porch night with a fire and soup.
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DoctorMu
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40 mph gust this afternoon in Brazos County. This front took no prisoner. Terrible news about more flooding in Beaumont. The city will need to re-engineer drainage infrastructure for sure!

The good news is a mostly sunny week ahead with a little cooler than seasonable temps.
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Bowling ball may be coming through around Christmas per the 0z GFS.
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Belmer
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I think the next couple of weeks will at least be exciting to watch as an active pattern looks to remain through the rest of 2020. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) looks to remain negative allowing for numerous troughs to dig into the US with plenty of energy in the Pacific coming in. The issue will be whether we can get one of those systems timed with one of the troughs. A -NAO would help further in allowing the cooler air to stick around longer.

GFS has been teasing something around Christmas (+/- a day or two). While latest 00z run still has a deep ULL, the cold air moves out too fast and isn't as deep. All about timing...

Christmas Eve evening:
gfs_z500a_namer_45.png

AO (remaining negative)
ao.sprd2.gif

NAO (neutral)
nao.sprd2.gif
Blake
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