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you know things are extremely dull when there aren't any posts in here for 4 days....in mid November lol

Hot and humid with zero rain for the next week. Of course nobody is posting.

Except me! I'm liking this hot weather, we need this to continue all winter long.

I love winter, I prefer the cold

I love the hot weather. I hope it continues

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:50 am ETA is the only thing worth watching. The forecast was one of the biggest busts I’ve seen. My relatives down on the Fl West Coast have been put through an emotional shredder this week.

2020 has been nothing but a crazy year.

Are we going to cool down anytime soon?

Its Friday the 13th, 2020.
Enjoy the weather.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:55 am Are we going to cool down anytime soon?

Yes. If you consider 40’s and 50’s for lows a cool down.

A weak cold front on Sunday. Iffy as far as rain. slight chance of rain on Sunday. Dier after that with lows more seasonal. The burgeoning drought will be the big story as we head toward "winter."


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Dense fog impacted most of the terminals last night and will
continue to bring LIFR to IFR conditions through the mid morning.
Then visibilities dramatically improve, but MVFR CIGs may stick
around across the region through the early afternoon. High clouds
will continue through the day, but VFR conditions are expected to
prevail. CIGs are expected to lower again tonight with heights
around 2000ft. Patchy fog does look possible again tonight, but
not as widespread as last night/this morning. Light southeasterly
flow will continue through the period.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 321 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...

Areas of dense fog developed across the southwestern counties
last night thanks to light winds and high moisture content
resulting in the need of a Dense Fog Advisory. Like the past days,
this fog should dissipate by the mid-morning with the rising sun.
Patchy dense fog will again be a concern tonight across these
southwestern counties. Most of the area today will be shower-
free, but areas around Matagorda Bay may see some isolated light
showers this afternoon lasting into the early evening. Saturday
will remain fairly dry across the area, but the chance of showers
does increase late Saturday night going into Sunday morning across
the northern counties as a cold front moves across the area (more
on this in the long term discussion below).

The unseasonably warm weather will continue through the short term
with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows
in the mid to upper 60s.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

A cold front will race across SE TX Sunday morning into the early
afternoon. PW values are progged to reach 1.40 inches on Sunday
morning with a shallow saturated layer only extending to around 850
mb with drier air above this layer with strong capping in the 850-
700 mb layer. A broken line of showers will be possible as the front
pushes through the region. Will carry isolated thunder but the
capping looks pretty strong so the dominant weather type looks to be
mainly showers. Cold air advection doesn`t look all that strong
behind the front and with some sunshine expected by mid-late
afternoon, temperatures should be able to rebound back into the mid
70`s north and around 80 south. Drier air will advect into the area
Sunday night but forecast soundings show some mstr trapped beneath
the cap and there could be more cloud cover than suggested by the
blends. As such, leaned a bit warmer for MinT on Monday morning in
case clouds develop.

High pressure will build into the southern plains and move across
the Ozark plateau through Wednesday. It will be cooler but with 850
mb remaining between 13-14 C, feel afternoon temps will still be
able to warm into the mid/upper 70`s. This is still above climo but
closer to normal than the past week or so. The high moves east on
Thursday and a return flow redevelops with an increase in low level
moisture. Lows Thursday morning will probably occur in the evening
with steady or slowly warming temperatures after midnight.
Temperatures will trend warmer toward the end of the week as a 590
mb ridge amplifies over Texas. Surface high pressure and the
building 500 mb ridge will keep rain chances next week to near
zero.

43


.MARINE...

Some patchy dense fog developed overnight in Matagorda Bay
requiring a Marine Dense Fog Advisory. Conditions should rapidly
improve by the mid morning with the rising sun. There is fog
potential again tonight, but does not look to be as widespread as
tonight as winds remain slightly more elevated. Onshore flow is
expected to continue through Sunday morning, but a cold front is
expected to move through the coastal waters late Sunday. This will
usher in moderate to strong northeasterly flow by Monday lasting
through midweek.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 83 66 83 63 75 / 20 10 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 83 66 82 68 80 / 10 10 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 71 78 71 80 / 10 10 10 10 30

Let's see if we can get a flawless, hot November with little/no rain. After that, let's see if such beautiful weather continues through winter!

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
113 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

TXZ212-213-227-132000-
Waller TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
113 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

...Small but potent shower moving towards Katy...

At 111 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong shower over
Fulshear, or 7 miles southeast of Brookshire, moving north at 5 mph.

Briefly heavy rain is likely in the small core of this shower, as
well as winds up to 30 mph will be possible with this storm. A few
pea-sized hailstones may be possible, but are unlikely.

Locations impacted include...
Katy, Brookshire, Fulshear, Pattison, eastern Weston Lakes and Cinco
Ranch.

You know it’s pretty sad when we have a special weather statement over a “potent shower” lol

Latest drought monitor:

Iota, the record setting 30th named Atlantic basin tropical storm of the season has formed and expected to move into Central America on Monday.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:21 pm Iota, the record setting 30th named Atlantic basin tropical storm of the season has formed and expected to move into Central America on Monday.

Probably looking at a major hurricane too. I never imagined we would see a season more active than 2005, especially so soon. I suspect we will see a couple more storms before the end of the season.

Locally, I still don't see much drought relief anytime soon. Maybe a little bit of rain with the front on Sunday, otherwise the GFS doesn't show any precipitation until near Thanskgiving.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:43 pm Latest drought monitor:

F94D2BCD-7F26-4A75-8A0B-B73D9563DEDE.jpeg

Yeah, the drought is starting to be a problem here...and warm temps exacerbate it. If it stays warm and dry during the winter that increases the likelihood/risk of a 2011-like summer in 2021.

Andrew wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:39 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:21 pm Iota, the record setting 30th named Atlantic basin tropical storm of the season has formed and expected to move into Central America on Monday.

Probably looking at a major hurricane too. I never imagined we would see a season more active than 2005, especially so soon. I suspect we will see a couple more storms before the end of the season.

Locally, I still don't see much drought relief anytime soon. Maybe a little bit of rain with the front on Sunday, otherwise the GFS doesn't show any precipitation until near Thanskgiving.

Unbelievable that we could have yet another major...but then it's 2020. 31 tropical or subtropical cyclones, 30 named storms, and Iota would be the 4th hurricane, and 6 major hurricane.

Yeah, I'm trying to titrate watering. Not too much, not too little. Enough so the grass roots and plants and trees stay happy. Worst brown patch I've ever seen...and we haven't had much cool, rainy weather, typical in the last half of October and November to trigger it!

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:21 pm Iota, the record setting 30th named Atlantic basin tropical storm of the season has formed and expected to move into Central America on Monday.

Not again!

Major hurricanes have occurred in November. Think 1932 Cuba, Kate (1985), and Lenny (1999).

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:12 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:21 pm Iota, the record setting 30th named Atlantic basin tropical storm of the season has formed and expected to move into Central America on Monday.

Not again!

Major hurricanes have occurred in November. Think 1932 Cuba, Kate (1985), and Lenny (1999).

Yes, but 2 in one November?

I'm hearing chatter about a pattern change towards the end of the month and some colder weather...anyone know anything about this?

89°F today, dewpoint of 70°F. Possibly the hottest mid November day I can remember in CLL.

A Pacific front eases through tonight. Don't get your hopes up about rain. Potential fire danger tomorrow pm. More normal temps during the week.

A reinforcing shot in a week from this Monday (Nov 23rd) with more potential for rain.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

.AVIATION...
Expecting some MVFR stratus (and possibly some patchy fog south of
I-10) to develop ahead of a cold front that`ll be passing thru
late tonight followed by clearing and breezy conditions on
Sunday. Front should be around CLL ~8z and off the coast by ~14z.
Narrow band of shra should develop ahead of the boundary as it
moves closer to the CLL/UTS area and toward the coast. VFR for the
remainder of the day. Winds should decouple inland right after
sunset. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/
SHORT TERM [This afternoon Through Sunday]... Warm and humid
conditions come to an abrupt end tonight/early Sunday as strong
Pacific cold front sweeps through the region Sunday morning and
should be off the coast by 7 or 8 am. Scattered showers may
develop along the front as it races through but the cap and
limited moisture/instability will hamper the threat of any
thunderstorms. CAA in full force Sunday with gusty northerly winds
in the wake of the front and will set the stage for a pleasantly
cool week.

LONG TERM [Sunday night Through Saturday]...
High pressure dominates through Friday with temperatures near
normal or slightly below initially then by Thursday getting to
near normal to just slight above normal as high pressure weakens
and light onshore moisture return gets underway. A very slim
chance for showers Friday into Saturday but for now will keep the
forecast dry.

MARINE... Small craft conditions developing with northerly winds
15-25 knots and gusts near 30 knots as a cold front sweeps off the
coast Sunday morning. Windy conditions persisting into Sunday
night then gradually relaxing becoming more northeasterly. Low
water conditions may briefly be possible in the upper portions of
the bays Sunday then returning to normal by evening. This coming
week will be dominated by northeast to east winds with broad low
pressure in the Southern Gulf and ridging to the northeast of
SETX. Elevated seas will persist much of the week thanks to the
long easterly fetch.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions developing Sunday in the wake of
the cold front. RH values in the 20-25 percent range in the
southwestern counties with stronger gusty northerly winds 10-20
mph. Poor recovery Sunday night followed by dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday though with much lighter winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 69 44 71 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 64 73 51 70 47 / 40 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 72 61 69 59 / 20 30 0 0 0