Wx Infinity Forums

Too early to tell. We will have to wait and see.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:15 pm Wanting cold, and forecasting it are two very different things. I go off things like 1+2, SOI, GOA, PDO what a typical Niña Winter looks like given the current background state.... [snip]

No problems man, it's all understood. I'm actually looking forward to some cold myself: 60s for highs and 40s for lows.

tropiKal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:46 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:15 pm Wanting cold, and forecasting it are two very different things. I go off things like 1+2, SOI, GOA, PDO what a typical Niña Winter looks like given the current background state.... [snip]

No problems man, it's all understood. I'm actually looking forward to some cold myself: 60s for highs and 40s for lows.

I got a place in Montana to experience the real cold

However, if I could choose a perfect day where I would enjoy yard work, exercising outside and grilling.... a low of 40 and a high of 60 with a small breeze and sun would be my perfect day.

Its looking more likely that the area is going to receive some much needed rainfall this weekend.There may even be some minor flooding issues.

^^^On the last NWS discussion I read, it was said that the dynamics of the coming storm might be too far north for the Houston area to get the true impact. Nevertheless, we'll see what comes up.

Not anymore,the latest models have shifted more to the south with the area of greatest convergence. Wouldn't be surprised if the WPC moved the higher QPF amounts further south over the coming days.

.LONG TERM [Thanksgiving Day trough Tuesday]...

The long-term forecast for SE Texas continues to be characterized by
a great deal of uncertainty, mainly surrounding the approach of a
second cold frontal boundary that will being a period of unsettled
weather to the area during the upcoming holiday weekend. In the wake
of Wednesday`s cold front passage, surface high pressure behind the
boundary will push quickly to the east and allow for a redevelopment
of onshore flow by Thursday afternoon. Moisture levels should
rapidly recover as a result, with dew points reaching the low to mid
60s at most locations by the evening while total PWs reach the 1.5-
1.75 in by early Friday. These values are unseasonably high for this
time of year, with SPC`s sounding climatology indicating 90th
percentile values for late November of around 1.55 in at nearby RAOB
sites (CRP and LCH). With the return of onshore flow providing
steady WAA, expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s (7-
10 degrees above normal for late November). Galveston will be within
striking distance of recording its warmest Thanksgiving on
record...the current record stands at 78 degrees and the forecast
high is 76.

Heading into the weekend, global models continue to show significant
variance in their depictions of a second, stronger frontal passage.
By late Friday, an amplified upper trough/closed low will approach
the central CONUS. The GFS solution continues to be far more
progressive with the aforementioned trough, placing it just north of
the area approximately 24 hours before the ECMWF/Canadian solutions.
At the surface, deepening low pressure associated with this feature
will develop along the western Gulf coast and push northeastward.
With SE Texas sitting between two upper jet streaks (and thereby in
a highly favorable region of 300mb divergence) and given the
aforementioned presence of ample low-level moisture across the area,
prolonged rainfall event is possible on Saturday. Further showers
and thunderstorms will form along the cold front associated with the
advancing surface low as it pushes through the region, potentially
lasting well into Sunday depending on which solution materializes.
The latest GFS places the surface front at the coast by Saturday
afternoon, while the boundary passage in the ECMWF solution does not
do so until early Sunday. Given these significant differences in
timing, it`s still too early to pinpoint specific impacts from this
period of active weather. However, in a general sense, most of the
area should receive steady rainfall during the upcoming weekend
which at times may be locally heavy.

WPC has 3.6” right on top of me. I’ll believe that when I see it.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:43 pm WPC has 3.6” right on top of me. I’ll believe that when I see it.

Lock it in and throw away the key.

Kyle Field is going to be very wet for the Aggie - LSU game. Could be an equalizer.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:43 pm WPC has 3.6” right on top of me. I’ll believe that when I see it.

Those amounts have gone up per the latest update.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:47 pm Kyle Field is going to be very wet for the Aggie - LSU game. Could be an equalizer.

LSU doesn’t run the ball well. A&M does.

LSU doesn’t stop the run well. A&M does.

As expected WPC has shifted the higher qpf more to the south.

.LONG TERM [Thanksgiving Night through Tuesday]...

We continue to anticipate a period of active weather to persist
through most of the holiday weekend, with the possibility of locally
heavy rain remaining highest on Friday and Saturday. Global model
guidance over the past few cycles has started to come into better
agreement with the recent ECMWF trend, placing an amplified upper
trough/closed low over the Four Corners region by early Friday. As
this feature pushes slowly eastward, the overall synoptic pattern
looks to be conducive for periods of heavy rain across SE Texas
between late Friday and the early morning hours of Sunday. Moderate
onshore flow behind the advancing surface warm front on Thursday
will significantly enhance moisture availability across the region,
with surface dew points reaching the upper 60s to low 70s and total
PWs ranging from 1.75 to 2.0 in by Friday afternoon. This widespread
moisture availability is particularly anomalous along the Western
Gulf coast for late November-- PW values in this range would be well
above the 90th percentile of previously observed values at our two
closest upper air sites (CRP and LCH) per SPC`s sounding climatology
database. Forecast soundings show a well-saturated profile, typical
of previous heavy rain events across the area. GFS/ECMWF solutions
now both show a split jet pattern developing south of the upper low
by the early morning hours of Saturday, putting SE TX into the most
favorable region of upper divergence within the left rear quadrant
of the eastern jet streak and right front quadrant of the eastern
streak. As a slow-moving surface boundary extending from the
associated developing surface low begins to cross the region on
Friday, shower and storm development will occur along and ahead of
it. This will result in an extended period of rain for most of SE
TX, which could at times be locally heavy. WPC has included the
entirety of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall on Friday.

Models still are in a bit of disagreement regarding the duration of
the rainfall event, with ECMWF showing lingering precipitation into
Sunday while GFS shows a slightly quicker exit of the surface low
and an earlier clearing. Have maintained likely PoPs for most of
Friday and Saturday and have tapered off values on Sunday as a
result. Current forecast precipitation totals remain around 3-5
inches through the end of the weekend, though locally higher totals
are to be expected depending on the exact setup of developing rain
bands. While we are still several days out from this event,
residents of SE TX and those traveling through the area this weekend
should be aware of the possibility of flash flooding.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:51 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:47 pm Kyle Field is going to be very wet for the Aggie - LSU game. Could be an equalizer.

LSU doesn’t run the ball well. A&M does.

LSU doesn’t stop the run well. A&M does.

until the ball squirts out.

Jimbo prefers ball control ball anyway. The game is still a go for now.

The SPC has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the Upper TX Coast including the Houston area for Thanksgiving afternoon and overnight. The marginal risk area expands to include Central, S Central, and SE TX on Friday.

From the NWS

Happy Thanksgiving weather family! Take time to give thanks for the blessings we have. Enjoy your rainfall this weekend! We are expecting wintry weather here in the Smoky Mountains late Sunday into next Tuesday. Not sure I'm ready for snow just yet...lol

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:09 pm Happy Thanksgiving weather family! Take time to give thanks for the blessings we have. Enjoy your rainfall this weekend! We are expecting wintry weather here in the Smoky Mountains late Sunday into next Tuesday. Not sure I'm ready for snow just yet...lol

Happy Thanksgiving Steve! You are family and send some snow down our way

Happy Thanksquarantine to everyone. Anybody else in lockdown tomorrow or just me? Lol

Nah, Screw the CDC and our overreaching Govt. I choose freedom.

We got a big family gathering in Longview tomorrow and in Montgomery on Friday. Headed to CS on Saturday for A&M-LSU game.

I do hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving though. Sorry you are quarantined.