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INVEST 95L GOM Back to Code yellow but who really knows
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 8:56 am
by Hardcoreweather
We now have Invest 95L and it's expected to track west along the gulfcoast
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 9:00 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 9:08 am
by srainhoutx
Appears shear is too strong for development with 95L. Guests from FL are driving to Houston and currently on I-10 near Tallahassee reporting tropical mist. Have a great 4th of July folks.
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 9:14 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 9:59 am
by srainhoutx
NOUS42 KNHC 021400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 02 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-032
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1700Z
D. 28.5N 86.5W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/0445Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 04/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 12:39 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Might be a good intercept if I chase it by boat
If it does form into something I will do my best to provide live streaming video from my dash cam like I do with severe weather
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 12:45 pm
by srainhoutx
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...CONTINUES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 2:01 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 2:56 pm
by wxman57
Don't need a radar (looks well above surface) or a satellite estimate of wind to find the weak swirl, plenty of obs offshore. Looks like about a 1016mb low in a high-shear and quite hostile environment. I'm still not concerned about this feature, it's just something to keep offshore conditions rough in the clean-up area and produce rain along the mid Gulf Coast this weekend.
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 8:48 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 8:27 am
by wxman57
There does appear to be a weak circulation from obs offshore now. But winds around this small vortex are only 10 kts today (15 kts yesterday). Pressure 1012mb. Near 27.3N/87.7W. Development chances close to zero:
Re: INVEST 95L Northern Gulf Of Mexico Code yellow 10%
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 8:27 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: INVEST 95L GOM RECON TODAY
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 8:33 am
by Hardcoreweather
Recon is on for today 1pm central time
Re: INVEST 95L GOM RECON TODAY
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 8:34 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: INVEST 95L GOM RECON TODAY
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 9:55 am
by srainhoutx
000
NOUS42 KNHC 031430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 03 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-033
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHERN GULF)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 90.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 05/0445Z
D. 28.5N 91.0W
E. 05/0515Z TO 05/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 03/1800Z AND 04/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1200Z.
Re: INVEST 95L Recon Canceled for Today
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 12:21 pm
by redfish1
may want to keep a close eye on this one....starting to build more convection
Re: INVEST 95L Recon Canceled for Today
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 12:40 pm
by Hardcoreweather
20% now
00
ABNT20 KNHC 031738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE TODAY. THE LOW IS LOCATED
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...A SMALL RELAXATION OF THESE WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
Re: INVEST 95L Recon Canceled for Today
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 6:47 pm
by redfish1
in my opinion i think this system bears watching
Re: INVEST 95L Recon Canceled for Today
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 8:30 pm
by wink1968
Has the chances of development stayed at the 20% for the next 48 hours?
Re: INVEST 95L Recon Canceled for Today
Posted: Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:08 am
by Hardcoreweather
wink1968 wrote:Has the chances of development stayed at the 20% for the next 48 hours?
down to 10%
