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Suppose to hit Cancun tonight as at least a Cat 4. Bad situation for those folks.

Well, Beaumont has “Tropical Storm Conditions” possible for Friday now on our NWS LC forecast. Have bot been liking the trend yesterday and this morning so far. I cant handle anymore. Pray he/she goes poof.

Sheesh Delta is going crazy down there.

djmike wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:50 am Well, Beaumont has “Tropical Storm Conditions” possible for Friday now on our NWS LC forecast. Have bot been liking the trend yesterday and this morning so far. I cant handle anymore. Pray he/she goes poof.

BOSTWICK seemed almost concrete that it would not be more than a little gusty wind a rain shower or two...I hope he is right...hate for our friends next door as they may very well get another bruising.

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/3014209 ... 13c715750e

Looks like euro curves this thing just in time to miss Texas but lake Charles east is in the crosshairs

Another west shift with the 10AM package.

New Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure 954.0 mbar. Another 3.2 mbar drop in ~100 minutes.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:54 am Delta has intensified by 70 mph (from 40 mph to 110 mph) in its first 24 hours since becoming a named storm. This is the most intensification in a 24 hour period for an October Atlantic named storm since Wilma in 2005. #hurricane pic.twitter.com/Dc5EkZpFSj
-- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 6, 2020

You don't **** around with Gulf hurricanes. It's still bath water out there.

All Delta will do here is ruin the streak of beautiful weather for hot sticky days. Welp.

Euro offering a repeat of Hurricane Sally. GFS and Canadian just a bit farther east.

Hold onto your hats folks, this will be a wild ride...man those numbers...

145630 1817N 08247W 6853 02983 9603 +179 +100 069121 132 101 004 00
145700 1816N 08246W 6779 03029 9540 +180 +103 073063 079 098 008 03
145730 1814N 08245W 6869 02906 9555 +159 +114 098027 031 060 004 03
145800 1812N 08244W 6969 02779 9544 +180 +101 134028 032 038 002 00
145830 1810N 08244W 6971 02779 9547 +182 +106 166027 032 044 009 00
145900 1809N 08243W 7029 02739 9604 +153 +146 225052 077 113 064 00

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

Goodnight Nurse...man oh man...the RI is incredible...

Ugh, here we go again. Another week of model watching.

Someone better call up Chuck Norris to deal with this damned thing.

Once again this year, I dont feel comfortable here in Beaumont with Delta. WE are definitely in the cone now...

12z GFS is a little further w into the Gulf but mainly because it's a little faster. Trough is still there enough to save the upper Texas coast with the golden triangle on the fringe.

Euro remains a western outlier, for now.

Tx2005 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:37 am Ugh, here we go again. Another week of model watching.

I wouldn't be too concerned for SE Texas right now. A check in to the NHC or the forums once a day will probably be good enough. We are at the point in the hurricane season that models usually overestimate ridging and begin that turn to the NE too late. Based on the synoptic features present late this week it would be really hard to get a direct landfall to SE Texas. Even the ECMWF ensembles have the majority east of the border (and that is the most west model set). Obviously still, something to watch locally, but the chances remain low.

Bastardi said he feels like the euro is on to something we shall see

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:20 am Bastardi said he feels like the euro is on to something we shall see

Where do you see Bastardi's updates?

It’s on his premium that u have to pay for, he said euro been west bias all year but he feels it’s on to something with ridge and said ridge looks about right compared to other models and euro might be latching on to something that the other models aren’t