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The Climate Prediction Center suggests temperatures will be falling as October comes to an end.

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:05 pm The Climate Prediction Center suggests temperatures will be falling as October comes to an end.

Such wonderful news Srain had to post it twice!

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:14 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:05 pm The Climate Prediction Center suggests temperatures will be falling as October comes to an end.

Such wonderful news Srain had to post it twice!

We had a freeze this weekend in the Smokey Mountains and it was right on que climatology wise. I suspect that the late Fall and the coming Winter season will deliver surprises as Canada and Alaska cool down in the weeks ahead. La Nina Winters have delivered record breaking chill to SE Texas in the past....wink

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:28 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:14 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:05 pm The Climate Prediction Center suggests temperatures will be falling as October comes to an end.

Such wonderful news Srain had to post it twice!

We had a freeze this weekend in the Smokey Mountains and it was right on que climatology wise. I suspect that the late Fall and the coming Winter season will deliver surprises as Canada and Alaska cool down in the weeks ahead. La Nina Winters have delivered record breaking chill to SE Texas in the past....wink

I’ll be out your way in mid November for the A&M-Tenn game. Hoping for a cold Knoxville weekend!

What happened to having some occasional shortwaves passing by this week, giving us some chances of rain? Looks like they quietly exited stage left.

So im hearing rumblings about "strongest front of the season" chatter and lows POSSIBLY in the 30s and highs in the 40s and 50s...any truth to this?

I’m not really looking that far ahead yet. It’s probably overdone this far out. I’m more focused on today. My forecast is “Mostly Sunny” with no chance of rain, but I am keeping an eye on that activity towards Winnie building inland.

The last frost/freeze around Halloween I can remember was 1993. We'll see. It's GFS after all.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:23 pm I’m not really looking that far ahead yet. It’s probably overdone this far out. I’m more focused on today. My forecast is “Mostly Sunny” with no chance of rain, but I am keeping an eye on that activity towards Winnie building inland.

Yeah, even I have a better chance of rain on Monday and Tuesday than near Spring. Nothing until then.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:35 pm The last frost/freeze around Halloween I can remember was 1993. We'll see. It's GFS after all.

So basically, it'll actually end up being 89 degrees, dewpoint of about 70, with a S to SE wind.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201752
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020


&&

.AVIATION [18Z Update]...
SCT VFR to MVFR cigs are expected to continue this afternoon.
An area of showers and isolated storms will gradually move close
to KIAH/KCXO terminals through 22Z Tuesday. Low clouds and fog are
again possible overnight into Wednesday morning at all terminals.
The best probabilities of MVFR to occasional LIFR conditions will
be across our inland terminals. Light south winds today will
shift to the southeast and then east through Wednesday afternoon.
05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...

Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are found early this morning mainly
to the north of Interstate 10. Further to the south, mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies prevail. Temperatures through 3 AM are in
the lower to mid 70s across the area, and little change is
anticipated for the rest of the night (the normal lows for today
are 59 at CLL, 60 at both IAH, 62 at HOU and 67 at GLS). With
today`s highs anticipated to reach the upper 80s across much of
the area, it looks like we are setting up for another day of
double digit above normal temperatures (yesterday`s departures
were +12 at CLL, +10 at IAH, +10 and HOU and +8 at GLS). Only a
couple isolated showers/storms will be possible. Look for a repeat
of this warm pattern to continue tonight and Wednesday (we might
be able to shave off a couple degrees for the morning lows).
Conditions could become a little more favorable for some fog
development late tonight through early Wednesday morning. Little
to no rain can be expected. 42

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday]...

With broad surface high pressure remaining situated over the
northeastern CONUS and lower pressures centered near the Paso del
Norte region, unseasonably warm and humid weather will continue
through the end of the work week as light to moderate onshore flow
persists. Thursday and Friday look to be a continuation of the
general conditions expected earlier this week as a result, with
afternoon highs remaining approximately 5-8 degrees above normal for
late October (mid to upper 80s inland, lower 80s near the coast).
While this elevated heat won`t be threatening any records, dew
points in the lower 70s and thereby apparent temps in the lower 90s
will keep things feeling closer to August than October. Some
isolated streamer shower development remains a possibility offshore,
though inland coverage will be limited by slightly reduced total PWs
as surface flow develops a more easterly component by Thursday
morning.

A slight relief comes as we approach the upcoming weekend with a
weak surface cold frontal boundary expected to approach SE Texas
late Friday/early Saturday. Global guidance remains in fairly good
agreement in this feature being relatively shallow, as both GFS &
ECMWF continue to show very little in the way of a frontogenesis
signal in the 850mb-700mb layer. As such, we expect a fairly
uneventful frontal passage, though a brief shift to northerly winds
in its wake will reduce afternoon highs by a few degrees on
Saturday. Surface high pressure behind the departing front will
shift quickly to the east, allowing for a redevelopment of onshore
flow with warmer and more humid conditions returning on Sunday. This
should push total PWs across most of the area back into the vicinity
of 1.5 inches by late Monday.

By the beginning of next week, our attention remains on the approach
of a second, stronger cold frontal boundary on late Monday/early
Tuesday. Global guidance continues to come into better agreement
regarding the approach of this feature, though the CMC remains the
slowest of all solutions in bringing the front through on Wednesday.
GFS & ECMWF each show the front reaching the northern counties by
Monday afternoon, pushing through the area during the day and
clearing the Gulf waters by Tuesday morning. Convergence along the
boundary as it approaches should produce showers with isolated
thunderstorms given the aforementioned better near-surface moisture
availability. Disagreement has lessened regarding the extent of the
temperature drop as northerly flow develops in the wake of the
departing front, with the GFS and ECMWF now showing Tuesday night
lows in the 40s/low 50s and Wednesday lows potentially dipping into
the 30s across the northern zones. Have stayed close to the national
blends in the current forecast period though lows may need to be
adjusted downward (possibly significantly) in the coming periods
should this trend show consistency in upcoming runs.

Cady

AVIATION...

Mainly MVFR ceilings are present early this morning in and around the
UTS and CLL areas while IFR/LIFR levels are located in the CXO area.
Further to the south, it is VFR. Lowering ceilings and maybe some
fog will be possible until shortly after sunrise, then VFR conditions
will be developing in the late morning through afternoon hours. Any
rains look to be too isolated to mention in the TAFs. Better low cloud
and fog potential looks to develop tonight through Wednesday morning,
followed by gradually improving conditions through the mid to late
morning hours. 42

MARINE...

Onshore winds will persist through mid-week as a broad area of high
pressure remains over the eastern seaboard with lower pressures to our
west. Caution flags might be needed across portions of the offshore
waters toward the middle of the week. North and northeast winds can
be expected late Friday through Saturday after a weak front moves across
the area. An onshore flow returns on Saturday night. 42

CLIMATE...

Houston Hobby`s average temperature so far this month (Oct. 1-19)
of 77.4 degrees is the 8th warmest Oct. 1-19 period on record
(dating back to 1930). The warmest Oct. 1-19 period is 79.7 degrees
set back in 2017. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 69 87 67 87 / 10 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 86 70 87 69 86 / 10 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 83 75 84 / 20 0 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

txbear wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:01 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:35 pm The last frost/freeze around Halloween I can remember was 1993. We'll see. It's GFS after all.

So basically, it'll actually end up being 89 degrees, dewpoint of about 70, with a S to SE wind.

Well, the hottest Halloween ever was 2004. This was a roaster. Well, the whole month was. Still the hottest October ever, was 2004.

Forecast has already backed off of cool/chilly temps for next week. Ugh!!

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:59 pm Forecast has already backed off of cool/chilly temps for next week. Ugh!!

It's La Nina...you can expect that all season long.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:23 pm

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:59 pm Forecast has already backed off of cool/chilly temps for next week. Ugh!!

It's La Nina...you can expect that all season long.

Yeah, the 12z Euro reversed course quickly after dipping a toe. GFS still hanging in there on 12z

18z data coming in...and on cue GFS is crumbling. We're down to nowcasting coldfronts...Don't fire until you see a northerly wind shift.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:41 pm

snowman65 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:23 pm

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:59 pm Forecast has already backed off of cool/chilly temps for next week. Ugh!!

It's La Nina...you can expect that all season long.

Yeah, the 12z Euro reversed course quickly after dipping a toe. GFS still hanging in there on 12z

18z data coming in...and on cue GFS is crumbling. We're down to nowcasting coldfronts...Don't fire until you see a northerly wind shift.

Not surprising given our pattern so far this year.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:59 pm Forecast has already backed off of cool/chilly temps for next week. Ugh!!

Prefer clear and cloudless sky.

GFS and Canadian are back on board a potent front midweek next week.

58°F and sunny. That's the ticket. No A/C. No sprinklers. Maybe a bit of gas heat at night. Maybe not.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:40 am GFS and Canadian are back on board a potent front midweek next week.

58°F and sunny. That's the ticket. No A/C. No sprinklers. Maybe a bit of gas heat at night. Maybe not.

That’s AC OFF and windows open territory.

I'm sure it will be gone later on today lol