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Euro 06 ensembles shifted more west this morning

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:49 am Euro 06 ensembles shifted more west this morning

For delta?

Yep

TD26 has become TS #Delta, and continues to display a compact structure, with thunderstorms curling around the north side. This is a concerning sign that increases odds of rapid intensification occurring today & Tuesday. Good news is track may now miss Grand Cayman to the south. pic.twitter.com/RkY8HapPAQ
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) October 5, 2020

2z SHIPS text shows virtually little to no shear over #Delta for at least the next 60 hours along with SSTs of around 30C. Unsurprisingly, the rapid intensification probabilities are quite high (>60%) within the next 24 hours. pic.twitter.com/cwitz37Fcn
-- Steve Copertino (@TheSteveCop) October 5, 2020

Is it possible Delta can shift more west or do you guys feel we are ok here at the border? Beaumont/Orange area? Hadnt had a chance yet to review what models are says.

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:32 am Is it possible Delta can shift more west or do you guys feel we are ok here at the border? Beaumont/Orange area? Hadnt had a chance yet to review what models are says.

While we may see some adjustments to the track, this one should get picked-up and head towards Louisiana. Nothing is set in stone, of course, but the track of Delta is pretty straightforward at this time.

12z EURO is a little too close for comfort.I'm not too concerned about Delta yet though.

Euro ensembles shifted west again

Pretty sure I've read on S2K that the Euro is always biased west on stronger storms in the gulf.

This year it has been

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:21 pm Pretty sure I've read on S2K that the Euro is always biased west on stronger storms in the gulf.

I wouldn't say it always is, it has been this year for sure though. I wouldn't discredit the trends though because the Euro is a pretty good model in the grand scheme of things. A lot of the models trended further west overnight and today. The latest EPS ensembles are a little to close for comfort for me right now. I would be happy to see the Euro (and other models) go ahead and shift back to the east.

Not that I want anyone to get hit by a hurricane, ever, but I surely don't want anything other than some decent rains.

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Oct. 5, 2020
22:00 Z
Map: Google Earth Logo Cesium Logo

10/05 21:24 | 17 | 984mb | 63kts (63kts) | 64kts (64kts)
Raw?
Note: "In. Flt" is max inbound flight level wind. "In. Sfc" is max inbound surface wind, estimated by SFMR or visually. If outbound wind is reported, then highest wind, inbound or outbound from center, is in parenthesis. Winds usually averaged over 10s period. Extrap. MSLPs have (e) next to them. Add missed obs.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:48Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 26 in 2020
Storm Name: Delta (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 21:24:57Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.26N 79.32W
B. Center Fix Location: 206 statute miles (331 km) to the SW (234°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,966m (9,731ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 235° at 9kts (From the SW at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (22°) of center fix at 21:22:38Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 63kts (From the ESE at 72.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix at 21:22:03Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 61kts (70.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the SSW (208°) of center fix at 21:30:33Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 305° at 55kts (From the NW at 63.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (215°) of center fix at 21:31:35Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,071m (10,075ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) from the flight level center at 21:22:03Z

Gotta give props to Bastardi. He smelled an October major in the GoM.

Delta heading for the Mississippi Delta as of now.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:16 pm Gotta give props to Bastardi. He smelled an October major in the GoM.

Delta heading for the Mississippi Delta as of now.

I am not surprised to see a major hurricane in October.

18z euro west shift again

Gfs para, sw la shift west

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:35 pm Gfs para, sw la shift west

That run is waaaaayyyy too close for comfort.

TXWeatherMan wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:02 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:35 pm Gfs para, sw la shift west

That run is waaaaayyyy too close for comfort.

Have the image?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:08 pm

TXWeatherMan wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:02 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:35 pm Gfs para, sw la shift west

That run is waaaaayyyy too close for comfort.

Have the image?

I don’t, but it pretty much hugs the Texas coast and goes into Southwest Louisiana.