October 2020

[Cromagnum]

Satellite imagery puts heavy cloud cover over nearly the entire gulf. Its a very photogenic system. Even more so when it finally gets an eye feature.

[Scott747]

Per recon beta looks like it's moving more wnw for now. Another plane will be out there soon.

18z ICON is slower and the trough seems not to pick it up as fast. It's still the outlier to the w.

[Stormlover2020]

Yeah nam is more west also

[Texaspirate11]

Trough will pick it up

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs tad west this run

[Scott747]

18z gfs is a little further w with landfall late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Just to the e of where Laura hit. Golden triangle would take a pretty good hit and ts force winds could get down as far s as Galveston.

[Stormlover2020]

Scott, also looks like the last 2 runs gfs isn’t kicking out quick like it has been could that be the trough being weaker ?

[Scott747]

Everything looks about the same except the storm is a little bigger.

[Stormlover2020]

Everything looks about the same except the storm is a little bigger.

Thanks

[Stormlover2020]

Hwrf 18 shifts west

[Cpv17]

Hwrf 18 shifts west

Yeah but it’s still a good ways away from Texas.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like it means business tonight.

[DoctorMu]

Laura II path 2 days out.

[Scott747]

Well they can keep saying it's moving nw but the movement has been wnw for almost 6 hrs now. Closer to due w since the 4 pm advisory. Doesn't mean it's becoming a threat to the upper Texas coast but the further w it gets before turning will increase the impacts for our area.

[Cpv17]

Well they can keep saying it's moving nw but the movement has been wnw for almost 6 hrs now. Closer to due w since the 4 pm advisory. Doesn't mean it's becoming a threat to the upper Texas coast but the further w it gets before turning will increase the impacts for our area.

I have a question. If there’s supposedly a trough over Texas then why wouldn’t the trough pull it towards us? I’ve always thought tc’s get picked up by troughs and are tugged towards them, not away from them?

[Rip76]

Well they can keep saying it's moving nw but the movement has been wnw for almost 6 hrs now. Closer to due w since the 4 pm advisory. Doesn't mean it's becoming a threat to the upper Texas coast but the further w it gets before turning will increase the impacts for our area.

I have a question. If there’s supposedly a trough over Texas then why wouldn’t the trough pull it towards us? I’ve always thought tc’s get picked up by troughs and are tugged towards them, not away from them?

I would think that would depend, where over Texas.

[jabcwb2]

Yes, I am confused, too.

[jabcwb2]

Yes, I am confused, too.

[Scott747]

Well they can keep saying it's moving nw but the movement has been wnw for almost 6 hrs now. Closer to due w since the 4 pm advisory. Doesn't mean it's becoming a threat to the upper Texas coast but the further w it gets before turning will increase the impacts for our area.

I have a question. If there’s supposedly a trough over Texas then why wouldn’t the trough pull it towards us? I’ve always thought tc’s get picked up by troughs and are tugged towards them, not away from them?

The weakness created by the trough will be further e by the time Beta feels it. Plus the ridge only extends so far to push it any further w.

It does look like the ridge is a little stronger and why it could be having this short-term movement. I can't see whatever is left of gamma doing it.

[Stormlover2020]

Scott, nhc said it’s moving nw