Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:10 am
The 06z GFS is nothing short of interesting.. 
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:10 am
So its not going to turn and head toward Texas now?
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:13 am
Where did you get that idea? The latest update from the NHC at 7am still has it turning west and hanging along the coast through Wednesday..
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:16 am
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:16 am
Shear is beginning to drop and storms are building around the coc. Recon found the center almost exactly were forecasted and it should begin turning soon.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:17 am
No worries!Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:16 amI read something wrong my bad
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:18 am
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:20 am
Naked swirl right now but I agree, as the first vis images come in, looks like it’s ready to pop over the CoC. Going to be interesting days ahead
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:23 am
Which is odd considering the storms loops around Houston then goes NE a bit just to turn back around over Houston again.. but the last frame you can see trouble in approaching from the Yucatan.. yes yes, it’s way far out into October so it’s just for entertainment
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:28 am
Yup. And this more northerly component is potentially bad news for the upper Texas coast depending on where it slows down and how stacked it is once beta nears the coast.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:30 am
I’m not at all sold on this storm ejecting yet. It could hang around for even longer than currently forecasted.Scott747 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:28 am
Yup. And this more northerly component is potentially bad news for the upper Texas coast depending on where it slows down and how stacked it is once beta nears the coast.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:32 am
Yeah that’s one of those CAG systems the GFS is notoriously known for.davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:23 amWhich is odd considering the storms loops around Houston then goes NE a bit just to turn back around over Houston again.. but the last frame you can see trouble in approaching from the Yucatan.. yes yes, it’s way far out into October so it’s just for entertainment
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:39 am
I’m kinda thinking that the NHC cone needs to be adjusted slightly west based on all the models I’ve seen on Tropical Tidbits. It looks like they all have this going further inland.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:51 am
I think the model doesn't seem to take into account the front creating training line. Where ever it setup. That's what caused trouble in the past. Ex.Brenham in 2016. Any thoughts mets?
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:03 am
Dry air is already encroaching on Beta’s circulation without an inner core developed. Of course, we can’t turn our back - but another inhibiting factor.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:09 am
Long next 3 days to see what will happen, when u have something in gulf watch out!!!
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:09 am
Its not forecasted to be a hurricane till tomorrow..plenty of time for it to get its act together...but since you are a pro ill lean more towards you lolweatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:03 am Dry air is already encroaching on Beta’s circulation without an inner core developed. Of course, we can’t turn our back - but another inhibiting factor.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:11 am
Of course that is true... and it will still strengthen some... but the dry air isn’t going to go away. We’ll have to see how it plays out, but we’re lucky we don’t have a perfect environment in the Gulf right now.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:09 amIts not forecasted to be a hurricane till tomorrow..plenty of time for it to get its act together...but since you are a pro ill lean more towards you lolweatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:03 am Dry air is already encroaching on Beta’s circulation without an inner core developed. Of course, we can’t turn our back - but another inhibiting factor.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:27 am
I guess the dry air is what could possibly keep most of the precipitation offshore and we could end up getting very little action? Who knows?
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:45 am
100% agree on the dry air keeping Beta in check throughout its life span. That could also be a factor on the not so absurd rain totals inland as it skirts the coast.