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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:41 pm
by djmike
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:33 pm
We all know and understand that Texas can get hit by storms into October and November, but climatologically speaking, it’s rare. For the most part, hurricane season in Texas is over after around the middle to late part of September.
THANK YOU!!! Thats all I was trying to say to everyone. I never said we dont ever get storms oct/nov, I said TYPICALLY after Sept things begin going more eastward do to fronts...Then everyone wants to tell me how many storms hit in oct, nov... Never said sept 31st, it stops for tx...Anyway, THANK YOU CPV for understanding me and clarifying.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:44 pm
by don
0z Canadian shows a very ugly setup for heavy rain over Southeast Texas. BTW the Canadian and ICON models were the first to sniff Beta out. They were showing the storm before Sally even formed. Those two models have done surprisingly well with tc genesis this season.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:48 pm
by javakah
Really wondering if, even after the northward adjustment from the recon plane, if it's shifted still a bit further north than expected, and the models are initiating a bit too far south.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:51 pm
by Cpv17
djmike wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:41 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:33 pm
We all know and understand that Texas can get hit by storms into October and November, but climatologically speaking, it’s rare. For the most part, hurricane season in Texas is over after around the middle to late part of September.
THANK YOU!!! Thats all I was trying to say to everyone. I never said we dont ever get storms oct/nov, I said TYPICALLY after Sept things begin going more eastward do to fronts...Then everyone wants to tell me how many storms hit in oct, nov... Never said sept 31st, it stops for tx...Anyway, THANK YOU CPV for understanding me and clarifying.
Anytime Mike.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:55 pm
by Cpv17
javakah wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:48 pm
Really wondering if, even after the northward adjustment from the recon plane, if it's shifted still a bit further north than expected, and the models are initiating a bit too far south.
I’m also wondering about this too. The further north this gets could possibly mean less rain for us. If it goes in more towards Corpus Christi and then slowly crawls north then we’d obviously get more rain but if it goes in towards Matagorda and hugs the coast then we’d probably get less rain.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:08 am
by Katdaddy
Time to be tropical weather aware.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:20 am
by don
0z HMON and HRWF shifted north to Matagorda Bay with heavy rain across the area. I've also noticed that they show landfall sooner on Sunday instead of Monday.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:11 am
by Cpv17
don wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:20 am
0z HMON and HRWF shifted north to Matagorda Bay with heavy rain across the area. I've also noticed that they show landfall sooner on Sunday instead of Monday.
That latest run of the HWRF would be very concerning for southeast TX.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:25 am
by Cpv17
Man the latest 0z Euro run is nasty. Going to be all sorts of rain with that setup.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:37 am
by Cpv17
The 0z Euro is literally a Harvey track. I’m not even kidding. Insane!!
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:40 am
by Stormlover2020
Ridge is stronger and beta is slower
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:01 am
by TXWeatherMan
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:40 am
Ridge is stronger and beta is slower
Maybe about to start the turn West?
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:17 am
by Cpv17
I said that it was a Harvey track on the Euro but it really doesn’t have much rain with it according to the 0z Euro. Precip totals are nothing close to what I thought they’d be. I don’t trust that. Seems really weird.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:29 am
by DoctorMu
Models are having Beta stall similar to Harvey.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:31 am
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:37 am
The 0z Euro is literally a Harvey track. I’m not even kidding. Insane!!
GFS and GFS- PARA are no better news.
Ensembles are deja vu all over again.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:15 am
by davidiowx
I’d say Beta needs to start making that turn soon or its going to be NE of the track again. When is the next Recon? Tropical tidbits isn’t showing anything about it.
Edit: Recon is on its way.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:48 am
by tireman4
Interesting days ahead. Plesse stay weather aware
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:27 am
by davidiowx
Yes indeed tireman4. Beta is a sheared mess right now but shear looks to be dropping but dry air may be an issue per WV
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:45 am
by Texaspirate11
Im rooting for dry air
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:09 am
by Katdaddy
Cool dry air, CA smoke, and Beta being slammed off the NE away from the Upper TX Coast this morning toward FL with no effects................yeah wishful thinking but this story is ongoing with several chapters today. We must remain tropical weather aware and hopefully Air Force Recon will have some good new later today.