Wx Infinity Forums

Lol u meant Mexico to la

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:26 pm From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.

Possibly in between.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161741
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.AVIATION...
No real surprises with the 18z TAF package. VFR conditions should
mostly prevail with exceptions being in any isolated stronger
cells that manage to develop later this afternoon (some of which
could produce gusty winds). Precip should mostly taper off this
evening with the loss of heating, though some activity may linger
overnight to our west as weak upper disturbances edge closer. On
Thursday, though available moisture is a touch reduced, large
scale lift increases somewhat and there is considerable uncertainty
in regards to the amount of daytime precip redevelops once temps
climb into the upper 80s. Some guidance shows more than others.
Think scattered activity north and west of the Highway 59-Interstate
69 corridor & maybe a bit less further southeast looks a
reasonable start. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 86 68 86 / 20 20 50 40 20
Houston (IAH) 95 76 91 73 90 / 30 30 40 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 90 78 88 / 20 30 40 40 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

Could be like Frances (1998)

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:32 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:26 pm From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.

Possibly in between.

What models take it in between? I either see Mexico or Louisiana. I know that will probably change but that’s just what I see right now.

Because ur modeling hugging lol, no models have been good this year, hwrf takes it to la and then into Texas and back in the gulf, gfs takes it into la and Texas also, cmc keeps it off cost down towards Brownsville, icon has it towards Brownsville.

Wouldn't the dry air behind this so called cold front shunt this storm away from us??

Modeling has been rough this year missing all sorts of storms and intensity issues.
LA or MX would be fitting considering the pattern so far. Expect a sharp gradient in precip too.

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:32 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:26 pm From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.

Possibly in between.

Now that's a cone!

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:38 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:32 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:26 pm From what I’m gathering after the latest runs it looks like either Mexico or Louisiana.

Possibly in between.

What models take it in between? I either see Mexico or Louisiana. I know that will probably change but that’s just what I see right now.

Check out the 12Z icon just because no model has indicated somewhere on the Texas coast doesn’t mean you should rule it out.

With the rough year the globals have had it's easy to be dismissive of modeling. However it's still a significant part of how the NHC forecasts development and tracks. It's why they use a blend of model consensus aides like the TVCN etc...

I've been impressed by the HWRF this current season as stand alone guidance and I must say the initial run is something to keep close eye on. It only weakens as it bends back w towards the upper Texas coast under the influence of high pressure with it tracking across land. If it were to do so before any type of landfall it would be a different ballgame.

If by chance the model is correct then the timeframe is quite accelerated and would catch people off guard.

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:13 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:38 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:32 pm

Possibly in between.

What models take it in between? I either see Mexico or Louisiana. I know that will probably change but that’s just what I see right now.

Check out the 12Z icon just because no model has indicated somewhere on the Texas coast doesn’t mean you should rule it out.

Yes, I know. You guys are confused at what I’m trying to say. I’m only saying what the models are showing as of the latest runs. I have over 25 years of tracking the weather lol I know models will change, especially this year. I’m not ruling out anything.

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:42 pm Because ur modeling hugging lol, no models have been good this year, hwrf takes it to la and then into Texas and back in the gulf, gfs takes it into la and Texas also, cmc keeps it off cost down towards Brownsville, icon has it towards Brownsville.

I’m not model hugging. I’m only saying what the models are showing per the latest runs from what I saw.

The 12z eps is all over Louisiana. Not sure if it bends back w after that though.

Remember, it does help to have a COC to start with. Otherwise, all bets can be off.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:54 pm Remember, it does help to have a COC to start with. Otherwise, all bets can be off.

I’m wondering how much that actually helps. I’ve noticed that even when the COC actually forms, the models often times don’t change too much.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:08 pm

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:54 pm Remember, it does help to have a COC to start with. Otherwise, all bets can be off.

I’m wondering how much that actually helps. I’ve noticed that even when the COC actually forms, the models often times don’t change too much.

I have seen it the other way as well. Patience is the key.

It’s going to be mostly about where the center forms, but models suck this year so all the model watching will make ur eyes hurt

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:26 pm It’s going to be mostly about where the center forms, but models suck this year so all the model watching will make ur eyes hurt

I’m just glad we have something to talk about.

Yeah no doubt, also watch the tvcn model also the hurricane center blends that in with path