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Just got a burst of very heavy rain in W League City. This is the NE edge of the training feederband that has been hammering Brazoria County

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:51 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:45 pm Almost all models are coming into agreement with the GFS and a stall just inland or drifting back offshore before slowly lifting out either Wednesday or Thursday.

Drifting back out, will that be a game changer or not do much if anything?

Too many variables with such a complicated setup....

It could easily washout, or it could maintain an identity with continuing rotating bands into parts of the middle and upper Texas coast until Wednesday or Thursday.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1252 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 130 PM CDT.

* At 1251 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 8 miles southeast of Port Bolivar, or 8 miles
east of Galveston Pier 21, moving west at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Port Bolivar and Pelican Island around 115 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Very nice band setting up over Friendswood.

It also appears to be moving North on radar

I've seen worse looking storms. Pretty.

Strong feeder band moving into metro Houston. As expected the heaviest precipitation is displaced to the north of the center.

12z Euro joins in...

Barely gets onshore before drifting back offshore and moving slowly up the coast as a depression towards sw la by Thursday.

Movement still looks like a slow drift towards Aransas/Matagorda Bay. Hard to tell, especially without recon. Last mission had com issues. Should be another mission this afternoon.

Little engine that could. It's making a pretty good fuss despite all it had to fight against.

Intensity models starting to keep TS winds through hour 72 (if it goes back over water up the coast) like some models are now suggesting.

Looks like it’s moving northwest but who knows

Looks like we may have landfall per radar.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-N0Q-1-24

Sure looks to be heading something other than just west. WNW or NW. Also, dry areas to the north are starting to fill in. Northern Harris and Montgomery Counties, etc.

davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:06 pm Looks like we may have landfall per radar.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-N0Q-1-24

Almost. There's wobbling and Beta moves NW right at Matagorda. Pretty good entraining over southern Galveston Island into Alvin and League City and then Sugar Land. Could be more twisters popping up on that dirty side as the band rotates.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:15 pm

davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:06 pm Looks like we may have landfall per radar.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-N0Q-1-24

Almost. There's wobbling and Beta moves NW right at Matagorda. Pretty good entraining over southern Galveston Island into Alvin and League City and then Sugar Land. Could be more twisters popping up on that dirty side as the band rotates.

Yea for sure.. I am in Richmond and watching that heavy band entering SE Ft Bend county now. Should be getting in on that in the next 30-45 min. It looks like some pretty intense storms and have heard a few rumbles of thunder off in the distance.

I have had a steady rain for the past 2-3 hours, accumulations right under an inch so far today after an inch yesterday as well.

It looks like the friction of the coast is allowing Beta to tighten up as it makes landfall.And thus allowing more moisture to fill in more also. The HRWF and the HMON have did the best job so far with the precipitation shield and structure of the storm.

While several of the global models showed the heaviest precipitation closer to the center around the middle Texas coast.With most of southeast Texas dry slotted, that doesn't appear to be happening...

Right at one inch yesterday and just under 2 so far today.

Nearing 2”

4 inches and counting in Sienna. Looks like training bands are really starting to set up. Could be a long week after all...

.26” overnight but nothing yet today but sprinkles. Storm total .48” so far.

Will be watching to see if the bands and core shift northward.